trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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I agree. To say one can profit with trend is one thing but to have a 90% accuracy is another. All these claims of 90% accuracy is meaningless and irresponsible without regard to things like average win and average loss. I am not against trend trading, just not the level of accuracy without any qualifications.
the facts---
a good friend of mine's non-trend following fund has been ranked the world's NUMERO UNO fund over the last 3 years- destroying the trend funds in numerous categories.
trend true believers--- how can this be ? look at the charts-- are there not trends during this period?
hank
a good friend of mine's non-trend following fund has been ranked the world's NUMERO UNO fund over the last 3 years- destroying the trend funds in numerous categories.
trend true believers--- how can this be ? look at the charts-- are there not trends during this period?
hank
Winter,
i said i could predict the trend for 1 hour with a PROBABLE accuracy of 90%.( you ommitted the word PROBABLY to change the statement on purpose)
I said : short 1 hour, probably even 2 hours.
I never said that after that the trend was over.
The trend was over when i posted my exit in REAL TIME. I even went short after i declared that the trend was short.
So it was short from the first posting till more or less the close of the day. My prediction was correct.
It's not my fault that you don't understand the system behind the way i trade.
Trend gives a direction of the move; but that doesn't mean that in all moments within this trend you are profitable. It means that i am profitable if i make the difference between my entry in the trend and my exit in the trend. I identifie the trend and make a trade in the direction of this trend with a probable 90% accuracy.
This was my last posting; i prefer putting my energy in trading and discussions with people that have a vision and respect the rules of a honest discussion.
You remind me of the people that centuries ago condamned some one because he stated that the earth was round. According to the public opinion at that moment the earth was a flat plate. Anyone denying that had to be burned.
I wish good luck to all traders that are honest. Unfortunatelly some come here only to break down others, they have the only truth in hands that exist, but they never prove what they can themselves.
We always say (free translation): the best sailors always stand at the shore, they have never been nor will ever get on the boat.
i said i could predict the trend for 1 hour with a PROBABLE accuracy of 90%.( you ommitted the word PROBABLY to change the statement on purpose)
I said : short 1 hour, probably even 2 hours.
I never said that after that the trend was over.
The trend was over when i posted my exit in REAL TIME. I even went short after i declared that the trend was short.
So it was short from the first posting till more or less the close of the day. My prediction was correct.
It's not my fault that you don't understand the system behind the way i trade.
Trend gives a direction of the move; but that doesn't mean that in all moments within this trend you are profitable. It means that i am profitable if i make the difference between my entry in the trend and my exit in the trend. I identifie the trend and make a trade in the direction of this trend with a probable 90% accuracy.
This was my last posting; i prefer putting my energy in trading and discussions with people that have a vision and respect the rules of a honest discussion.
You remind me of the people that centuries ago condamned some one because he stated that the earth was round. According to the public opinion at that moment the earth was a flat plate. Anyone denying that had to be burned.
I wish good luck to all traders that are honest. Unfortunatelly some come here only to break down others, they have the only truth in hands that exist, but they never prove what they can themselves.
We always say (free translation): the best sailors always stand at the shore, they have never been nor will ever get on the boat.
Actually that is NOT what you said, let me refresh your memory:
Astute observers will notice that words Probable and Probably do not appear anywhere in that quote which is the entire post where you made the prediction, unedited.
As to your latest backpeddling, I have no idea what "probable accuracy of 90%" is. Once you stick in a disclaimer like probable you might as well say 100% of the time - its pointless to give a figure like 90% and then disclaim it with probable. I can be probably accurate all of the time, perhaps you lack of English skills is causing you to use words that you do not fully understand.
Indeed. This will be the second time you have announced your "last posting" to me in this thread, I hope you are able to keep your word this time however I predict (with probable 100% accuracy) that you will not.
LOL, the only thing I'm denying is that you are 90% accurate. I fully believe in trend following as I have stated previously in this thread. This has nothing to do with trend following as a valid form of trading - it has everything to do with egotistical people that make outrageous claims that cannot be backed up because they are false.
I'm not saying that you aren't a profitable trader or that you do not succesfully use trends to make money, I don't know and I don't care. I am saying that your one hour short trend call (reposted above) was wrong and that regardless of that one attempt to demonstrate your predictive abilities you cannot make 90% accurate predictions about future trends.
BTW, a weatherman who predicts sunshine the next day then in the middle of the next day changes the forecast to rain isnt much of a weatherman. The whole point of a prediction is that you make it and then you sit back and watch it unfold - you aren't allowed to change the prediction in the middle of the event you're predicting. This is common sense.
Quote from hank rollins:
the facts---
a good friend of mine's non-trend following fund has been ranked the world's NUMERO UNO fund over the last 3 years- destroying the trend funds in numerous categories.
trend true believers--- how can this be ? look at the charts-- are there not trends during this period?
hank
Oh, absolutely. A single example or so is all any objective observer ever needs to draw broad conclusions for now and forever. Yes, you have single-handedly shattered all delusions regarding trends with your selfless, extensive and rigorous quest for the truth. You may now hang up your lab coat and bask in the knowledge that you have made an indelible contribution to the understanding of markets. But please, no false modesty.
I do hope that the visitors to your own web site are also benefactors of your wisdom and acuity.
As an aside, I do think it is playfully ironic that you should use the term "true believer" to describe those other than yourself (please refer to your numerous, single-minded creationist threads). Don't ever lose that sense of humor.
Trading systems are about TESTING:
1. What the edge exactly is.
2. Whether the edge will sustain.
3. Others but not appropriate.
It's not about PREDICTING.
1. What the edge exactly is.
2. Whether the edge will sustain.
3. Others but not appropriate.
It's not about PREDICTING.
no one has shown me a single accepted statistical test that proves the existence of trend. in fact the tests indicate randomness in most every market series.
what can i say? facts are facts. show me where i am wrong, i'l be thrilled to be corrected on this issue.
Quote from hank rollins:
no one has shown me a single accepted statistical test that proves the existence of trend. in fact the tests indicate randomness in most every market series.
what can i say? facts are facts. show me where i am wrong, i'l be thrilled to be corrected on this issue.
Which set of facts have you produced in any of your posts? Seems to me that what you have produced is a set of "assertions" with no proof at all back them up. In fact, when I requested a link to these alleged "studies" that you mentioned, you did not produce even one, nor did you bother to respond to my post. When I asked what the definition of "randomness" was you ignored it. I'd love to see what assumptions were made when the alleged tests were conducted...but you have not bothered to produce any of this, answer any questions regarding, provide a link. In short, facts may be facts....but you have not produced even one fact. Produce any of the above, or any of the information I asked for in my first post in this thread, and I too will be "thrilled".
OldTrader
Quote from hank rollins:
the facts---
a good friend of mine's non-trend following fund has been ranked the world's NUMERO UNO fund over the last 3 years- destroying the trend funds in numerous categories.
trend true believers--- how can this be ? look at the charts-- are there not trends during this period?
hank
According to what measure? what are the performance ratios? what are the risk metrics? What's the technique? risk arb, stat arb, pure arb, convert arb, capital structure arb, equity market neutral, etc etc.
There are so many fund indices you can be the top of any one. You have to be the top of a well recognized index, like CSFB etc etc to be good
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