trend following delusion shattered

[jsp326]

Quote from hanseng1:


But most math-based methods I have seen/tried have short life spans.

Speaking of math-based methods, I'm waiting for the arrival of Long Term Capital Management II. Like all bad horror flicks, it's gotta have a sequel...

 

[Grob109]

Quote from hank rollins:

hey bro, take your sign off line to heart. its a good one.

i utilize a small portion of gann's teaching in my index trading system, which is arguably a non traditional trend trading system in some aspects

all i am saying, is make sure you TEST TEST TEST your system....if TA and traditonal trend trading works for you... great ! all the work myself and my colleques have put into studying these topics, the results are not any different than pure randomness.

have a great night !

So you proved that you can't test and you hang out with similar nuts.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from OldTrader:

Now, what does "randomness" mean?

Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable.

The chart of price does not reveal any tendency that extrapolates into the future. Instead, future price is random with respect to past price, as is proved by the very low serial correlation of price. Unpredictability is a consequence of market efficiency, which says that all publicly available information is already in the market price.

 

[nononsense]

Quote from Grob109:

So you proved that you can't test and you hang out with similar nuts.

You mean Jack?

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from NickelScalper:

Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable.

The chart of price does not reveal any tendency that extrapolates into the future. Instead, future price is random with respect to past price, as is proved by the very low serial correlation of price. Unpredictability is a consequence of market efficiency, which says that all publicly available information is already in the market price.

So if i understand well, it's impossible to say if the price will go up or down in the next hour?

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from spike500:

So if i understand well, it's impossible to say if the price will go up or down in the next hour?

It is impossible to reliably predict whether the price will be higher or lower in one hour based solely on past price using publicly available methods.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from NickelScalper:

It is impossible to reliably predict whether the price will be higher or lower in one hour based solely on past price using publicly available methods.

I only use the high, low an close and can "predict" the future.
Predictions should be correct for at least 90% of the time.
I will post my predictions in real time. The only problem is that i cannot give all the signals i see because i'am at my work till approx 5 PM gmt time, which was 20 minutes ago.

It happens frequently that i can predict the trend for two - three hours in the future. But instead of playing the game of yes and no it's better to proof what someone says.

For me it was short from the opening and the trend will stay short for at least 1 hour to go, probably even 2 hours.
When i say the trend is short i don't mean the bottom. I mean that in that period you should never go long.

 

[NickelScalper]

Quote from spike500:

It happens frequently that i can predict the trend for two - three hours in the future. But instead of playing the game of yes and no it's better to proof what someone says.

You also have to prove that your predictions are based solely on past price.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from spike500:

I only use the high, low an close and can "predict" the future.
Predictions should be correct for at least 90% of the time.

Do you have any ideas of your average points per week on the ES? Thanks.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from OddTrader:

Do you have any ideas of your average points per week on the ES? Thanks.

yes

that's not important, the most important thing is to PROVE that what you say really works.

If i say how many points i make i will get idiot remarks :
why don't you live in the carribean?
you must be the richest man in the world !
if professionals can't make it how would you be able to make it ?
it commonly known that what you say is impossible
etc...etc...

I past that stage already a long time ago.