trend following delusion shattered

hank rollins · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from hanseng1:

First, it seems the link is broken.

Second, it seems half of your posts lately are knocking TA. I seem to remember a year ago or so reading you are a Gann trader. If I'm not mistaken, that is TA. Also, any time you play an outright position, you are taking a trend following position. If you make a "counter-trend" play (off support/resistance, or some other chart point), you are essentially betting that point will be the start of a new trend in the opposite direction.

If trend following does not work (and TA in general) than what do you suggest we trade by? It's kinda hard to trade intra-day using fundamentals.

hey bro, take your sign off line to heart. its a good one.

i utilize a small portion of gann's teaching in my index trading system, which is arguably a non traditional trend trading system in some aspects

all i am saying, is make sure you TEST TEST TEST your system....if TA and traditonal trend trading works for you... great ! all the work myself and my colleques have put into studying these topics, the results are not any different than pure randomness.

have a great night !

hank rollins · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from TSGannGalt:

Putting Sharpe on trend-following???

Hrmmm.... not a good idea.

your a math guy, right ? mr. gann ?

show me a statistical measure of trend..... can a trend be tested objectively?

hanseng1 · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

hey bro, take your sign off line to heart. its a good one.

i utilize a small portion of gann's teaching in my index trading system, which is arguably a non traditional trend trading system in some aspects

all i am saying, is make sure you TEST TEST TEST your system....if TA and traditonal trend trading works for you... great ! all the work myself and my colleques have put into studying these topics, the results are not any different than pure randomness.

have a great night !

For the record, I have nothing against marketsur....err Hank Rollins, and I am not trying to start a pissing match.

But most math-based methods I have seen/tried have short life spans. Trend systems tend to have longer lives. Plus, there is always a trend depending of the time frame you are looking at. I feel it is better to use several tested trend-based systems on numerous markets across multiple timeframes, as this helps tame the volatile returns of the method. Also, I'm just a little guy; moving size like Henry is easier on longer timeframes.

Note I am not talking about spread/arb strategies. I am talking about simple directional trades.

Regardless of your methodology, good trading to you.

OldTrader · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

hey bro, take your sign off line to heart. its a good one.

i utilize a small portion of gann's teaching in my index trading system, which is arguably a non traditional trend trading system in some aspects

all i am saying, is make sure you TEST TEST TEST your system....if TA and traditonal trend trading works for you... great ! all the work myself and my colleques have put into studying these topics, the results are not any different than pure randomness.

have a great night !

Perhaps you could help me out: Could you provide a link to this study that you claim to have made?

Now, what does "randomness" mean? Does that mean that if we take a monkey, and program him with some rules that a professor thinks make sense, that he is only right 50% of the time when tested against past markets?

In other words, why do you make unsupported assertions? Why not simply come out with your study that you claim that you have done, so that we can take a look at your assumptions, and then determine whether your conclusions make any sense?

Looking forward to a little more than assertions.

OldTrader

Thunderdog · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

why are you so angry ? inflamatory? is trend following your religion or something? if john henry is your dad or something, let him know i am merely seeking knowledge. no personal offense meant. chill out, bro. i see you qoute my good friend J.A.'s article, not sure why---i'll be sure to ask him whats up with the out of context qoute thingy.

hanksurfer, this is not the first time you started trashing something or someone under the guise of "seeking knowledge." You are, in fact, seeking attention and notoriety. Own up to it, the truth will set you free. You do have an interesting style, though. You take select bits of anecdotal "evidence" and then endeavor to draw broad conclusions of your own design. Very stylish.

nicholaf · Mar 15, 2005

sounds like oktiri

rubberbird · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from Thunderdog:

hanksurfer, this is not the first time you started trashing something or someone under the guise of "seeking knowledge." You are, in fact, seeking attention and notoriety. Own up to it, the truth will set you free. You do have an interesting style, though. You take select bits of anecdotal "evidence" and then endeavor to draw broad conclusions of your own design. Very stylish.

Here's a smart man. I couldn't agree more. Very cleverly done by surf.

Of course, if he really wanted to debate the issue, i'm calling a trend change right now, and thus my trend call is in direct contradiction to his assertion. But alas, there is no attention to be drawn engaging in intelligent dialogue on my thread, so he doesn't do it. Wouldn't be surprised if he only throws his 2 cents into thread he starts on ET given his competing site. No notoriety in doing anything else.

OddTrader · Mar 15, 2005

Probably promoting a (truly or not) unique trading style against other main-stream players in the hedge funds industry would be quite normal in order to attract funds, as perhaps Hedge (i.e. Different/ Diversification) would be exactly what the industry and investors want, I would guess.

TSGannGalt · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

your a math guy, right ? mr. gann ?

show me a statistical measure of trend..... can a trend be tested objectively?

... sure give me a clear definition of a trend and I'll test it objectively...

But what I will say is that let's say you have a 2 40% profitable system at the end of the year they both make 30% return but:

System A trades 10 times a day, swinging intraday moves.

System B trades once a week.

...

So... let's say we run these 2 systems under a Monte Carlo... In a general sense,

1. System A will have a higher number of instances with better (lower volatility) volatility measuring value than System B.

2. System A will have a higher number of instances with better (lower Drawdowns) MaxRisk/MaxReward measures.

Well, there are more but keeping things in subject... (Also, what I mention is under a general sense... what I mention doesn't exactly fit all systems relative to the example due to the specific character of the edge you're trying expose... My examples are just like an unbiased coin-flip analogy...

)

Sharpe Ratio and few other measures favor higher trade frequency under a specific time than trading styles like trend-following.

Another than is like having a $100,000 scalper (Let's say 20 lot trader) comparing themselves with a $1,000,000,000 hedge fund. Have them try to do the same trades with x10,000 the contract size... Also, try trend-following with a $100,000 account...

nicholaf · Mar 15, 2005

Quote from TSGannGalt:

... sure give me a clear definition of a trend and I'll test it objectively...

But what I will say is that let's say you have a 2 40% profitable system at the end of the year they both make 30% return but:

System A trades 10 times a day, swinging intraday moves.

System B trades once a week.

...

So... let's say we run these 2 systems under a Monte Carlo... In a general sense,

1. System A will have a higher number of instances with better (lower volatility) volatility measuring value than System B.

2. System A will have a higher number of instances with better (lower Drawdowns) MaxRisk/MaxReward measures.

Well, there are more but keeping things in subject... (Also, what I mention is under a general sense... what I mention doesn't exactly fit all systems relative to the example due to the specific character of the edge you're trying expose... My examples are just like an unbiased coin-flip analogy... )

Sharpe Ratio and few other measures favor higher trade frequency under a specific time than trading styles like trend-following.

Another than is like having a $100,000 scalper (Let's say 20 lot trader) comparing themselves with a $1,000,000,000 hedge fund. Have them try to do the same trades with x10,000 the contract size... Also, try trend-following with a $100,000 account...

well said