That's harsh!
Unfortunately, I dont have the access the Boston Red Sox owner has, bad correlation!
regards, surf
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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That's harsh!
Unfortunately, I dont have the access the Boston Red Sox owner has, bad correlation!
regards, surf
Quote from uptik2000:
Yeah, see you there. But you're not going to want to go to that 99cent steak place are you?
Tads!!! The sole cause of my obese self.
YEAH ! just kidding--- last year, I got sick after eating there, will not go back!
surf
ps. you buying??
we'll go downtown to felixes--the home of eurotrash models and certain assorted financial (and other wise) rouges.http://www.felixnyc.com/main_menulunch.html
Quote from Vienna:
Yes, I know... didn't want to gloat about a failed trade... no harm intended
no offense taken. I also have nothing at all against JWH--He has my respect for what he accomplished-- he's just the poster boy for Trend Following per people who write about such things.
regards, surf
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070126/15384.html
another nail into the coffin of trend following for stocks.
regards,
surfer
another nail into the coffin of trend following for stocks.
regards,
surfer
Quote from marketsurfer:
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070126/15384.html
another nail into the coffin of trend following for stocks.
regards,
surfer
Sorry but that article has nothing to do with following a trend.
Tracking stocks that have risen or pulled back for "x" period of time has as much to do with following a trend as the type of seats in the stands have to do with winning a NASCAR race.
In order to follow a trend one must define it first.
Nice attempt though.
Surf,
I enjoy your posts. Wonder if you would like to have earned 18% per year since 1980 (even if it involved trend-following)?
FundX is a trend-following/"upgrading" system for trading mutual funds with an excellent 25 year record of independently verified performance of trading with trend-following rules:
http://www.fundx.com/class.cfm
http://www.fundx.com/spchart.cfm
Upgrading Follows Market Leadership/Trend-following:
Upgrading is based upon the observation that few, if any, money managers consistently excel. Instead, we observe a wide range of performance returns, typically with only a small percentage of professional money managers ever invested in the right sectors of the equity market at any given time.
This is because each money manager has a particular style that works well in some, but not all market environments. Market leadership rotates between large-cap and small-cap stocks, growth and value styles of investing, international and domestic areas. Leadership changes because economic conditions change. But most fund managers don't change their particular styles when the market leadership changes.
Since market leadership is forever rotating, we move incrementally toward the top ranked funds by progressively selling the lower ranked funds and reinvesting in the new leaders. This continuous process provides an effective way to participate successfully in a broad range of investment opportunities as they develop.
#1 out of 13 newsletters for 25 years.
#1 out of 30 newsletters for 20 years.
Source: Hulbert Financial Digest - July 2005
I enjoy your posts. Wonder if you would like to have earned 18% per year since 1980 (even if it involved trend-following)?
FundX is a trend-following/"upgrading" system for trading mutual funds with an excellent 25 year record of independently verified performance of trading with trend-following rules:
http://www.fundx.com/class.cfm
http://www.fundx.com/spchart.cfm
Upgrading Follows Market Leadership/Trend-following:
Upgrading is based upon the observation that few, if any, money managers consistently excel. Instead, we observe a wide range of performance returns, typically with only a small percentage of professional money managers ever invested in the right sectors of the equity market at any given time.
This is because each money manager has a particular style that works well in some, but not all market environments. Market leadership rotates between large-cap and small-cap stocks, growth and value styles of investing, international and domestic areas. Leadership changes because economic conditions change. But most fund managers don't change their particular styles when the market leadership changes.
Since market leadership is forever rotating, we move incrementally toward the top ranked funds by progressively selling the lower ranked funds and reinvesting in the new leaders. This continuous process provides an effective way to participate successfully in a broad range of investment opportunities as they develop.
#1 out of 13 newsletters for 25 years.
#1 out of 30 newsletters for 20 years.
Source: Hulbert Financial Digest - July 2005
Here is a quick interview with James Altucher - if it is the same person that this thread mentions.
Nothing earth shattering, but the interviewer is cute.
http://www.collectiveintellect.com/2007/01/social_stock_picks.php
Nothing earth shattering, but the interviewer is cute.
http://www.collectiveintellect.com/2007/01/social_stock_picks.php
So basically what they are saying is buy the dips of stocks that are trending up.
Its funny, there are all kinds of stories of complete idiots who have made money buying dips in rising markets but very few stories about smart guys who have found an "edge" daytrading.
Its funny, there are all kinds of stories of complete idiots who have made money buying dips in rising markets but very few stories about smart guys who have found an "edge" daytrading.
Quote from marketsurfer:
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070126/15384.html
another nail into the coffin of trend following for stocks.
regards,
surfer
what you are missing is a basic understanding that a driftless stochastic process differs from brownian motion. this is the classic error that you commit time and time again with your examples. What's your understand of the Levy Process and how it applies to trend? I could lay out the math here, but I dont think you would "get" it. Study the above concepts and the idea of zero drift and you may get on the right track for understanding--ofcourse that is if you even want to understand.
surf
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