Quote from marketsurfer:
what you are missing is a basic understanding that a driftless stochastic process differs from brownian motion. this is the classic error that you commit time and time again with your examples. What's your understand of the Levy Process and how it applies to trend? I could lay out the math here, but I dont think you would "get" it. Study the above concepts and the idea of zero drift and you may get on the right track for understanding--ofcourse that is if you even want to understand.
surf
I do understand your inconsistent variable definition of a driftless stochastic (which, by the way means "GUESS" in Greek ) process environment as it tries to justify an environment YOU say isn't strictly definable in the first place.
I, probably better than most, understand the Brownian aspect of price movement and how it differs what that stuff you do.
The "Levy Process" and it's statistical gobblety goop and probabilities are irrelevant to what I do. (What you lean a new term at the "Trader's Expo"?)
I understand your math/statistical references in detail. I understand your trading rational . . . and see from it's results in "The Surf Report" (your self absorbed egomaniacal pseudo blog) that your typical hedge fund throw-the-spagetti-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks-seat-of-your-pants-trading-style doesn't work. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out either. You simple need to read your own journal.
Math has absolutely nothing to do with what I do. I know it is a factor in your world but your world is a realm of calculations and subjective decisions based on those calculations inside a variable environment.
Mine is a realm of fixed and real points & real price oscillations. Simply put, my trading environment is solely based on price, yours is based on discretionary calculations in a subjective environment. Price is perfect. Once a price bar is printed . . . it is DONE!! You are still trying to figure out what calculation to apply to what set of numbers and how you can curve fit your decision to fit your trade.
You, in no way shape or form, understand a single morsel of the environment I trade in so don't even begin to pretend you do. You are a typical institutional hedge fund trader (if that) and nothing more and it pisses you off to no end that someone knows something you don't know. Sorry Buddy but welcome to the real world and how life progresses. I offered to show you what I do so you could at least talk intelligently about it and even condemn it IF you could prove it wrong but you prefer to stand on the sidelines like a little child and throw stones at what you can't comprehend. Over the last 3 years of me helping traders in this forum your credibility has diminished exponentially because of your closed minded attitude. You would think a relatively bright individual would have figured that out by now so this is even more evidence to your brilliance.
Stick to commenting on the closed environment you are comfortable with and leave that which you have no knowledge of to those that have the knowledge.
