trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from Lamont_C:

Sorry, but I missed your reply when it was made.

Again, a "prime oscillation" is being defined as one which accompanies an ergodic which is > or < than 10? If so, your "aggressive" entry would have been "conservative" if the ergodic had moved above 10 at the same time?

As for the "ultra conservative entry", where are you locating support on the ES chart? Are you using 1430.50 as intraday support, particularly since it was tested later at 1431?

And thanks again.

LC
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Anyone have a eureka moment?

I was looking at the charts in different markets, and found something universal to pretty much all the markets.

Its regarding trendfollowing, to those that are applying this, may already know what I'm talking about.

I'm a scalper at heart, but do to time constraints, would rather not have to follow minute to minute nuiances in the price action. It does help for a intrasession session trade.

Its regarding variables:

Stop Loss
Take Profit
Equity
Lot Size
Linear Regression Period


Chris
 
"...I am impressed with the success of both Toby Crabel and John W. Henry. Victor Niederhoffer is an entirely different story..."

A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words? :D
 

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Quote from hank rollins:

even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow



http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs...Jan_31_2005.pdf


don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?

wake up friends !
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Once again, all of Mr. Henry's funds were down for 2006.

In addiiton, all but one have been down over the last 3 years.

Here's the world's premiere trend follower, with the maximum capital in the history of the markets, with the finest everything money can buy and he obviously still can't find the trend. Yet the trend followers are still hanging on platitudes like--- "look at a chart from across the room and you will see if there is a trend"or "trends are obvious. just look" How many more years of losses untill these guys throw in the towel?

regards,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Once again, all of Mr. Henry's funds were down for 2006.

In addiiton, all but one have been down over the last 3 years.

Here's the world's premiere trend follower, with the maximum capital in the history of the markets, with the finest everything money can buy and he obviously still can't find the trend. Yet the trend followers are still hanging on platitudes like--- "look at a chart from across the room and you will see if there is a trend"or "trends are obvious. just look" How many more years of losses untill these guys throw in the towel?

regards,

surfer
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Couldn't it be possible that he just got on the wrong side of the trend? That's what it looks like to me.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Once again, all of Mr. Henry's funds were down for 2006.

In addiiton, all but one have been down over the last 3 years.

Here's the world's premiere trend follower, with the maximum capital in the history of the markets, with the finest everything money can buy and he obviously still can't find the trend. Yet the trend followers are still hanging on platitudes like--- "look at a chart from across the room and you will see if there is a trend"or "trends are obvious. just look" How many more years of losses untill these guys throw in the towel?

regards,

surfer
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LOL. Surf, can you find the trend in this stock?
The one you shorted 7 points ago?
Just in case you forgot, here's the link:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83138&highlight=mfw
 

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Quote from marketsurfer:

How many more years of losses untill these guys throw in the towel?


surfer
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Presumably, around the same number it takes you to get tired shorting new highs?
 
Quote from doublea:

Couldn't it be possible that he just got on the wrong side of the trend? That's what it looks like to me.
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Yes, in multi markets, across the board.

This adds fuel to my argument that trend following is the same as buy and hold. It can work huge on occassion and for the outliers--but the majority simply make market or less( since they churn) returns.

regards, surf
 
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