trend following delusion shattered

[Vishnu]

Quote from bighog:



Why is it so hard to say trend following can be done intraday?

I have no problem saying it. Trend following can be done intraday. I said it. But it has nothing to do with what the "trend followers" do that everyone seems to revere here. Its two completely different methods that have nothing to do with each other.

 

[bighog]

Ok, in your use of the TREND FOLLOWING usage relative to what others are sayinh "in here" i concede we are on the same page. ....

Thks for the feed back. DONE. Good trading to ya.

 

[jimmyneutron]

Quote from Vishnu:

I'm in barclays. I think i'm in most of the databases.

Thanks. I am reading MAR and find no reference to Formula under FoF or any other fund category.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from kinggyppo:

This is from Ed Seykota's website, thought this was interesting given the discussion:

"All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend might mean; we can only determine historical trends.

The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history.

There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions. "

He's wrong and just isn't aware of it yet.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

still waiting for someone to tell me how many moves in a series increase the likelihood of the next move/series to be in the same direction.

regards,

surfer

Three sequential primary oscillations objectively defined in a non-varying price interval environment. The slower (more volume per bar) the chart interval the clearer the trading oscillations within that defined Trend and the less noise is created from minor oscillations.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Vishnu:

I Trend following is mostly a long-term investing strategy. Trends last years. And then they get broken for years.

Trends exist on any chart in any time or volume increment. One just needs to objectively define the strict non-varying parameters that form it.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Vishnu:

But yeah, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

And if it doesn't work consistently, tear it apart and rebuild it.

 

[Lamont_C]

And ProfLogic keeps bringing the thread back to center . . .

 

[jimmyneutron]

Quote from marketsurfer:

ps. thanks for the darwin award and further libelist statements, riskarb, welcome back!

I see you whined to the mods to have my reply removed, Hoodoo. The word is libelous. I realize you didn't receive a classical education, but c'mon. They do readin' and writin' in Pittsburgh, no? I'd thought you'd be intimately familiar with the word.

 

[ProfLogic]

March eWheat pulling back from a Confirmed Prime Trend Resistance top to challenge and create Prime Trending Support.