trend following delusion shattered

OddTrader · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from Thunderdog:

(I was going to write "misguided," but after 284 pages, "boneheaded" it is.)

That saying of 284 pages is absolutely wrong. It's only 43 pages here.

That's why we'd never be able to conclude anything here on ET.

marketsurfer · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from Thunderdog:

If you are equating the significance of a trend move in the markets with the insignificance of an apparent trend in coin flips, then maybe it is time for you to consider another occupation. Market moves, whether they are in trend or not, have a psychological effect of one kind or another on the majority of traders. It is the aggregate psychology of the players that moves the markets, whether in one direction or the other. The actual fundamentals can often be tangential. On the other hand, this dynamic is completely absent from one coin toss to the next. Therefore, your coin toss analogy is boneheaded. I was going to write "misguided," but after 284 pages, "boneheaded" it is.

hello thunderdog!

once again an erudite response--- your coming sabatical is a loss for ET.

yes, i agree the coin analogy is overly simplistic and not entirely relevent--however it does illustrate the point of the uselesness of past trends when making entry decisions.

while what you say makes sense within its context, its merely a statment of fact and not relevent to trend following as a useable method. you not being privy to the psychological market drivers is akin to not knowing for sure what side of the coin will come up based on past history.

The public by default are trend followers--buying new highs and hoping for higher highs--- we all know what happens to the majority of the public.

surf

marketsurfer · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from uptik2000:

LOL ..you're a funny guy, surf.

Happy Holidays to you too. Is it ok with you if I regift my marketsurfer hat? I'm sending it to ZZZZzzzz.

please don't, Zzzzzzz has already threatened to wear the surfer gear during publicly embarrassing world news events!

send it back to me, washed ofcourse--- its a rare classic as the company that made the hat folded some time ago.

Thunderdog · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from marketsurfer:

The public by default are trend followers--buying new highs and hoping for higher highs--- we all know what happens to the majority of the public.

What you mean to say is that we all know what happens to the "majority of the public" at the TURN of a trend. Those fortunate to participate in the trend while it is in place are happy as can be. So perhaps you may wish to direct the discussion to the TURN in trends.

I expect you to be on your best behavior during my absence.

(P.S. True, higher highs may suggest an uptrend and vice versa, however, that need not necessarily be the point of entry. For some reason, you still cannot seem to digest this tidbit.)

ProfLogic · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from marketsurfer:

Only in the past.

Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.

Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?

If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?

Moderators warnings mean nothing to you I see.

I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed man.

Lamont_C · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from ProfLogic:

Moderators warnings mean nothing to you I see.

I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed man.

Hes already been banned once, and here he is, so why should the warnings bother him?

LC

ProfLogic · Dec 22, 2006

Quote from marketsurfer:

The public by default are trend followers--buying new highs and hoping for higher highs--- we all know what happens to the majority of the public.

surf

So it's better to constantly sell tops till one finally fails right?

man · Dec 23, 2006

Quote from marketsurfer:

The public by default are trend followers--buying new highs and hoping for higher highs--- we all know what happens to the majority of the public.

surf

not your best statement, surfer. too plain, too general,
too ... easy.

Bitstream · Dec 23, 2006

sorry surfeur, we definetly agree trends are fewer and fewer but that's only intraday. there are great trends in the making anywhere u look. besides u talk about the public buying new highs and getting slammed yet u tried to find a top on the dia and got slammed how many times in a row, 10? i mean that is some serious beating given how much room u give to your trades...now u need to get it right many times over to make up for the loss or i am father xrismaz. so all in all, the public that gets trashed around usually try to catch tops and bottoms at no avail, no trend followers that have proven they can achieve double, at times treble digit returns on 8-9 digits funds.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Only in the past.

Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.

Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?

If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?

whitster · Dec 23, 2006

marketsurfer, the public "in general" (to use your parlance) are not trend followers. the public IN GENERAL, are mostly invested in stocks/mutual funds via defined contribution plans, retirement plans, etc. and GENERALLY invest on a dollar cost averaging methodology, iow money is taken from their paycheck each month, regardless of the state of the market.

that is definitely NOT trend following.

just because this is a trading website, not an investment website, don't be fooled into thinking the methodologies employed by active traders is used by the public - IN GENERAL

hth