trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Only in the past.
Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.
Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?
If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?
Quote from marketsurfer:
Only in the past.
Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.
Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?
If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?
This is coming from a guy who named his fund "Intrendex".
intrendX--refering to the upward drifting equity curve.
merry christmas!
surfer
If you are equating the significance of a trend move in the markets with the insignificance of an apparent trend in coin flips, then maybe it is time for you to consider another occupation. Market moves, whether they are in trend or not, have a psychological effect of one kind or another on the majority of traders. It is the aggregate psychology of the players that moves the markets, whether in one direction or the other. The actual fundamentals can often be tangential. On the other hand, this dynamic is completely absent from one coin toss to the next. Therefore, your coin toss analogy is boneheaded. (I was going to write "misguided," but after 284 pages, "boneheaded" it is.)Quote from marketsurfer:
Only in the past.
Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.
Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?
If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?
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