Trend-following CTAs failing badly. 3.7% returns for past 10 years.

[Option_Attack]

You know what they say about something free like that: "It's worth what you paid for it!"

 

[smallfil]

%% I avoided him+ his penny stocks. But his persistent ads caused me to read his free book. IF there is a good age to take too muck risk + trade penny stocks-young /college is it .

I tried to buy his book used,[AMZN] but they raised the bids to much; + he is kind enough to allow free downloads.

I actually bought his Penny Stocks Part Deux video plus the manual from one of his students. More out of curiosity than anything else. He pretty much shorted pump and dumps. Nothing new there. Still pretty risky because borrowing stock to short on thinly traded stocks at that, what if it runs up? Your risk to the upside is unlimited!

 

[comagnum]

Dunn Capital is a good benchmark for trend following since they know what they are doing.

 

[Wide Tailz]

And here I was afraid all the books on trend following might have given away the edge.....

 

[tommcginnis]

It's not the speed of the market that undermined trend following it's the lack of economic volatility since the GFC.

Show us a trend-exploiting algo that is undermined by a lack of vol. Just one.

 

[tommcginnis]

Just puzzled. I see CTAs with good track records and very low AUM. I am not talking about guys with 2-3 years, but 5,10 and 15-year-old track records, etc. The only explanation I can find is that some CTAs may come from institutional backgrounds and are funded because of connections, but then do not perform well.

To repeat myself, "Size Matters."

 

[murray t turtle]

I actually bought his Penny Stocks Part Deux video plus the manual from one of his students. More out of curiosity than anything else. He pretty much shorted pump and dumps. Nothing new there. Still pretty risky because borrowing stock to short on thinly traded stocks at that, what if it runs up? Your risk to the upside is unlimited!

%%
Penny stocks,risk,risk;
+not known for good trends. I like the time he tried to close out a long position,maybe@ $14+, dont remember all the details+his connection crashed. By the time he got it closed, he was up/profit much more than he intended to ..... LOL. [stocks still trend]

 

[MKTrader]

Dunn Capital is a good benchmark for trend following since they know what they are doing.

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Looks like their edge over the S&P peaked at the end of DotCom crash (around 2003) and they've lost some ground since. Has the last 15-16 years just been a bad "cycle" for trend following, or is it just not as effective with all the algos and increasing market efficiencies? There will always be short periods (2008) where it works better, but will that make up for the less volatile periods where it churns away profits? Unfortunately, waiting a few more decades is the only way we'll find out about those questions.

 

[murray t turtle]

Looks like their edge over the S&P peaked at the end of DotCom crash (around 2003) and they've lost some ground since. Has the last 15-16 years just been a bad "cycle" for trend following, or is it just not as effective with all the algos and increasing market efficiencies? There will always be short periods (2008) where it works better, but will that make up for the less volatile periods where it churns away profits? Unfortunately, waiting a few more decades is the only way we'll find out about those questions.

%%
Depends on market...….

 

[ironchef]

I bet with the bull market every year since 2010, so am I a trend follower.

I am up more than 3.7%. Maybe I should turn pro?