Trend Following--Another Nail In The Coffin

Quote from ProfLogic:

I have never ever ever said that the definition of a trend was, 3 units in one direction.

I said that Trends are first defined as Price Oscillations validated by Momentum Oscillations existing on only a single chart at a time. Price/Momentum Oscillations making 3 sequential higher highs, higher lows and higher highs at DEFINED EXTREME LEVELS designate a Bull Trend & Price/Momentum Oscillations making 3 sequential lower highs, lower lows and lower highs at DEFINED EXTREME LEVELS designate a Bear Trend. The key is the DEFINED EXTREME LEVELS and it is discussed in detail here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=80582&highlight=Odd+Tick
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ok, thanks for the clarification.

therefore you can prove that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the next move will be in the same direction after your bull/bear trend indicators appear BUT prior to the next move actually being profitable??

I challenge you to offer any statistical proof of this claims.

undefined, creative type language is not acceptable.

regards surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

ok, thanks for the clarification.

therefore you can prove that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the next move will be in the same direction after your bull/bear trend indicators appear BUT prior to the next move actually being profitable??

I challenge you to offer any statistical proof of this claims.

undefined, creative type language is not acceptable.

regards surf
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Well over 50/50.

No statistical proof. Stats can be fudged as any good math person is aware. I offer real time proof but you won't sit still for that. Something to do with your comfort zone I believe.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Well over 50/50.

No statistical proof. Stats can be fudged as any good math person is aware. I offer real time proof but you won't sit still for that. Something to do with your comfort zone I believe.
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well, i consider this a failure to back up your claims. If its as well defined as you state, there will be no problem with testing across a significant number of vehicles/times. nothing to do with fudging numbers.

yes, you are correct--- i don't consider seeing a magician perform tricks as empirical proof of magic.

regards surf
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Ok, I'm a wanker . . . but I'm right.

The only people that say trends don't exist are those that can't define them. They are also the ones that wont sit still for anyone to show them how to define them for fear of being taught something they thought was mindless. The potential of shaking the foundation of their belief system scares them to death. So they lash out at it with misdirection and rhetoric but never facts. They can never offer up facts because they won't allow themselves to see "outside their box".

Like proving to a dentist that fluoride is bad for ones health.

Full circle . . . that article had absolutely nothing to do with following a trend or debunking trends. Trend following is not buying new highs or selling new lows as some believe. It isn't even in the same country.
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LMAO ... No! Surfer is the wanker ... and you're correct, you're right :)

But we have to give Surfer points for being such a persistent wanker.
 
What if there is an 80% chance buying the new high will net you 1 tick, but 20% that selling it will net you 5?

How does a statistical trend (what you call proof) differ from a price trend, in that it 'works' until it doesn't?
 
Quote from illiquid:

What if there is an 80% chance buying the new high will net you 1 tick, but 20% that selling it will net you 5?

How does a statistical trend (what you call proof) differ from a price trend, in that it 'works' until it doesn't?
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it differs over a number of trades ( entries ) rather for each individual one.

regards, surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Here's the evangelist of the trend following church preaching their mantra:

http://www.turtletrader.com/mp3/barton-biggs.mp3


regards surf

:D :D
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Curtis Faith, one of the original turtles, made it clear in the "Turtle methodology" thread [http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...perpage=5&highlight=faith turtle&pagenumber=2] (a thread you responded in) that Mike Covell's site, the one you linked was worthless.

Misdirection?

Trading break outs is just one of the old trend following techniques the Turtles used. Just as doctors used to do "blood letting", techniques have progressed into the 21st century. Trading break outs is not anything a current trader that trades with the trend would ever do.
 
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