Quote from darkhorse:
You're full of shit.
Your statement implies a 96% win rate and +900% returns. That's ridiculous.
1) No human traders have that kind of hit rate.
Stevie Cohen, who put together one of the best trading shops of all time in SAC capital, once said his best trader had a hit rate of 65%.
Marty Schwartz, arguably one of the greatest daytraders ever, once said he more or less scrapped back and forth 200 trading days a year and made his big gains on the other 50 (i.e. 1 trading day out of 5).
Ken Grant, who served as risk manager to many of the top hedge funds in the world, said that the majority of top traders he has witnessed consistently displayed a 90/10 return profile, where 90% of their profits came from 10% of their trades.
Peter Brandt, who booked 41% CAGR over 30 years, did so with a less than 40% hit rate.
Multiple top global macro traders (running hundreds of millions to billions) have professed hit rates in the neighborhood of 50%.
In otherwords, across the top strata of top traders at the top of their game -- guys who have actually made hundreds of millions to billions in the markets -- not one of them has a 95% hit rate or anywhere near it. And yet your "beginner" got it by following your simple instructions. Right.
2) High frequency trading programs don't have that kind of hit rate either (let alone run rate).
The aim of HFT programs is to be like the house in blackjack, where a small edge, as little as a few percentage points, is exploited over thousands of occurrences per day to create near-statistical certainty of profit via the law of large numbers. This can done (and is done) with hit rates just north of 50%. Casinos make millions on blackjack every night with merely a 2% edge.
Furthermore, simple application of game theory dictates that a rule-based strategy with a hit rate of 96% simply could not exist in a competitive environment for anything more than a short period of time. Such an anomaly, as soon as discovered by other trading shops, would soon be competed away.
Anyone who was able to win 96% of the time, at a 900% run rate, for any meaningful length of time, would soon be richer than Bill Gates. And you're saying a newbie did it just by following your instructions.
3) High hit rate trading methodologies tend to require EXTREMELY high turnover to generate their returns, because average profitability per trade has to be low.
The trades that make 10R, or 50R, or 500R, are not high hit rate trades. They are more like grand-slam fastballs down the middle. Think George Soros and the British Pound in 1992, or Warren Buffett buying the Washington Post at near bankruptcy lows and holding it for decades.
But the above type trades just don't come along very often. And they certainly don't fit the context of a day or swing trading methodology.
In reality, a highly profitable day or swing trading methodology is going to have little bites, over and over, spread out over a large volume of trades.
Is it possible for a human trader to make 900% a year without undue risk, and to do so without hitting a macro or value investing home run? Yes. But such a trader would likely have to be a prop trader of some kind, making dozens of trades per day, if not hundreds, to compound his small edge rapidly.
Thus, what you made up doesn't even fit the structure of market reality. 62 trades over three months is not a realistic profile for 900% returns. The only way you get those kind of returns is by one-off swinging for the macro fences - and as already established, that is not a 96% hit rate business - or utilizing an extremely high turnover strategy that makes hundreds or even thousands of trades in a month.
4) If you had the holy grail, it would be worth billions of dollars.
A strategy that can win +95% of the time is a form of holy grail. A strategy that can consistently generate 900% annualized returns without insane risks is another form of holy grail. Put the two together and you have a sort of super holy grail where you could turn $50,000 into $1 billion in the matter of a few YEARS.
You might as well come on here and tell people you sneeze bullets and fart laughing gas, or that you're the trading fairy godmother who waves her magic wand and fulfills newbie traders' wildest dreams. The claims you make are so far beyond ridiculous they aren't credible for even a second. It's like one of those hoax scientists claiming they have found cold fusion or the means to create perpetual energy, without even understanding the fucking physics well enough to at least come up with a plausible bullshit story.
