FALSE
Trading & the Zero Sum Game Debate
- Thread starter butterfacetrader
- Start date
What is theTRUE % in your view B1S2?
The percentage of right or wrong by pro or amateurs is not relevant. There are winning methods with 9 of 10 losses (Gartman or Talib) and winning methods with 1 of 10 losses (like some claim on this board or BTFD for the last 4 years). The issue is expectancy and not the count of winners or losers in the string of bets.
Also method is not that important in the overall scheme of things in trading although beginners tend to focus on counts instead of expectancy because they think it is somehow relevant. The relevancy is merely to their own psychology IMO.
As per zero sum, I have heard short term yes stock market, long term no (due to growth), however I remain solidly zero sum (at the end of the game) for the same reason as the poster that talked about the last day. I think most people missed his point.
No poker player would say their game is not zero sum if they left the game early with a profit. Why do you think the central banks are IMO massively involved in buying and selling securities to prop up the fake numbers "economic growth". They know it is all a zero sum game - or at least they should know that!
Also method is not that important in the overall scheme of things in trading although beginners tend to focus on counts instead of expectancy because they think it is somehow relevant. The relevancy is merely to their own psychology IMO.
As per zero sum, I have heard short term yes stock market, long term no (due to growth), however I remain solidly zero sum (at the end of the game) for the same reason as the poster that talked about the last day. I think most people missed his point.
No poker player would say their game is not zero sum if they left the game early with a profit. Why do you think the central banks are IMO massively involved in buying and selling securities to prop up the fake numbers "economic growth". They know it is all a zero sum game - or at least they should know that!
Becoming a successful trader takes a lot of time and a lot of energy. So you should not waste energy on things that cannot contribute to becoming a better trader. So the first rule as a would be trader is to invest your energy in a smart way.
From start it is easy to see who has potential or not to become a good trader: you should just read ET. People who contribute to useless discussions will never become good traders as they spent their energy in non productive discussions.
In essence the only thing that is important for a trader is to perform well. So ask yourself if the following things do influence your performance or not:
For me personally the outcome (if there is any) of all these discussion have ZERO impact on my performance so they are irrelevant and a waste of energy. I trade my system and it works, that's all I need. I will not break my head on so called problems, I will do that when real problems appear.
I traded my system stating that TA works, afterwards I traded my system with the statement that TA does NOT work. In both scenario's my system gave the same performance.
I repeated this experiment with the trend statement.
I repeated this experiment with the zero sume game statement.
I repeated this experiment with the 90% losers statement.
In ALL scenario's my system gave the same performance. It does not care about all these statements.
Your system will automatically be influenced by what really exist, even without you knowing it. Simply because the reality of what works or exist is incorporated in the evolution of prices.
I will stop my posting here, because I don't want to waste more unproductive energy on it. Otherwise I will be qualified as not successful trader. Although even that is not important because my system will not trade differently. Markets don't care who or what I am.
From start it is easy to see who has potential or not to become a good trader: you should just read ET. People who contribute to useless discussions will never become good traders as they spent their energy in non productive discussions.
In essence the only thing that is important for a trader is to perform well. So ask yourself if the following things do influence your performance or not:
- TA works or not
- Trends exists or don't
- Trading is a zero sum game, or not
- 90% of traders lose money
- etc.....
For me personally the outcome (if there is any) of all these discussion have ZERO impact on my performance so they are irrelevant and a waste of energy. I trade my system and it works, that's all I need. I will not break my head on so called problems, I will do that when real problems appear.
I traded my system stating that TA works, afterwards I traded my system with the statement that TA does NOT work. In both scenario's my system gave the same performance.
I repeated this experiment with the trend statement.
I repeated this experiment with the zero sume game statement.
I repeated this experiment with the 90% losers statement.
In ALL scenario's my system gave the same performance. It does not care about all these statements.
Your system will automatically be influenced by what really exist, even without you knowing it. Simply because the reality of what works or exist is incorporated in the evolution of prices.
I will stop my posting here, because I don't want to waste more unproductive energy on it. Otherwise I will be qualified as not successful trader. Although even that is not important because my system will not trade differently. Markets don't care who or what I am.
Some really excellent stuff from IAN and some other stuff. (Honestly.) IAN has wasted energy (by his own definition) and is fearful of potentially losing more. Curious. Yes using time productively is needed, especially starting out in trading. Wasting time is also helpful.
Sadly, IAN will not post again because, on a Saturday holiday weekend, and due to a fear of being qualified as a "non successful trader". That seems like a threat somehow to him, (because he has perhaps tested it against his system and found it isn't real), so he feels threatened. But that fear doesn't affect him or his system today. Something else does IMO and thus he wastes his time to deal with it. How can one feel threatened today by a thread or posting?
One can't waste energy. Some scientists (at top theoretical levels) conclude that there is no objective time. Energy is neither created or destroyed. It is simply there to use or not. There can' be any limit of energy. Similarly, there are no hard-and-fast "RULES" in trading that I have ever discovered. To not read ET because of "bad" posts implies one knows what a "good" post is. To know what a "good" post is, one needs to read enough posts to know the difference. Some posts are good for some and bad for others and vice versa. Sadly, with all my trading experience, I still am unable to evaluate good or bad 100% so I must continue to read as my subjective time permits. Also, bad or good varies IMO as one increases the skill level of the reader's own trading.
IMO, "MY" systems are not affected by reality but by one's perception of reality. Postings and "wasting time" can help broaden that perception of reality. That then allows one to separate illusion from reality. It will make one a better trader in the long run, IMO.
Sadly, IAN will not post again because, on a Saturday holiday weekend, and due to a fear of being qualified as a "non successful trader". That seems like a threat somehow to him, (because he has perhaps tested it against his system and found it isn't real), so he feels threatened. But that fear doesn't affect him or his system today. Something else does IMO and thus he wastes his time to deal with it. How can one feel threatened today by a thread or posting?
One can't waste energy. Some scientists (at top theoretical levels) conclude that there is no objective time. Energy is neither created or destroyed. It is simply there to use or not. There can' be any limit of energy. Similarly, there are no hard-and-fast "RULES" in trading that I have ever discovered. To not read ET because of "bad" posts implies one knows what a "good" post is. To know what a "good" post is, one needs to read enough posts to know the difference. Some posts are good for some and bad for others and vice versa. Sadly, with all my trading experience, I still am unable to evaluate good or bad 100% so I must continue to read as my subjective time permits. Also, bad or good varies IMO as one increases the skill level of the reader's own trading.
IMO, "MY" systems are not affected by reality but by one's perception of reality. Postings and "wasting time" can help broaden that perception of reality. That then allows one to separate illusion from reality. It will make one a better trader in the long run, IMO.
Real trading performance will tell how much one's perception of reality corresponds to the real reality. For some it might be (and will be) a hard wake up call.
After reading your posting I realize that I can continue to post, because I am already qualified as unsuccesful trader by many on this forum. So the harm has already be done. On top of that I don't care what others think of me.
Because I am satisfied with "my" system I don't need time nor energy anymore to improve it. So my waste of time will not influence my performance. It is a waste of free and useless time. If I don't waste it here, I will waste it watching TV or doing something else.
Futures and fx are negative-sum games when broker fees are included. Stocks are not due to dividends.This article sheds plenty of light with simulations.
