Trading the Pivots

For Thursday, 8/24/06.

Market Status

Pivot Trend: Bearish

1st Resistance: 1304
Median Pivot: 1298
1st Support: 1291

Current Trend: Up
***
In reviewing the past couple of weeks' worth of action, the Pivot Trend has been very accurate in calling the market's turns, as it has been very trendy, without much chopping back and forth in consolidation.

Yesterday it went from Bullish to Neutral for the ES and was Bearish for the NQ, calling the day's action pretty well. So we will only be trading by the Pivot Trend's direction for initiating trades going forward.

This will give the thread viewer an easy process by which to monitor trades for the system, which are as follows:

1) Pivot Trend Direction
2) Setup using the 18 and 40 SMA's
3) Confirmation by the CCI 50 Histogram

Using this process is simpler, easy to follow, does not require specialized knowledge, and is very easy to trade and record.
***
Since the Current Trend is Up, and the CCI Histogram 50 is very good at showing extended moves and keeping the trader on the correct side of the Current Trend, I anticipate movement past the Pivot (may provide initial resistance and retrace) and up to R1, at which point I anticipate entering a Short Position for the System.

If the market cannot move past the Median Pivot of 1298 and the 18 and 40 SMA's setup for a Reversal, along with confirmation by the CCI 50 Histogram, I will enter Short there.

Best Regards,

JJ

P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
 
Quote from sg77:

JimmyJam,

I think what caddyshack is saying is that you never stick to a plan. I used to watch you in 4re's journal (which is very informative) and you were always changing your plan. Then you posted this just 2 days before starting this journal.

JimmyJam


Registered: Oct 2005
Posts: 1177


08-11-06 01:01 AM

... soooooooooooo, in the final analysis, if you are good at Table Tennis or the old Arcade game of "Pong", you will do a helluva good job trading the pivots.

best,

jj

P.S. Obviously, I don't use them. They mean different things at different times. While they could be useful as potential price targets (that every trader and his grandma knows), I'd rather not trade of 'em.


Why start a journal about pivots if you don't trade them?:confused:


SG77
More...

Hi SG77,

If you are a new poster, OK, I will take you at your word and explain my reasoning to you.

I use ET as Trading Lab, a Think Tank to throw ideas around and see what works and does not work. It is very good for that process, as you've committed to a course of action in a public forum, and you get to see what the results of that action are.

As I previously stated, this is a trading model based on the Pivots that I am creating for the public in which we can all model and gain a better understanding of how they work and how to trade them. This thread is what is known as a work in progress and so there will be change and growth as part of the process.

I see that I've stated at least 5 times while on this thread that I do not trade off of them, but rather I trade by my proprietary model which is working very well for me. I also see that people keep referring to the thread as if I trade off of them (the Pivots).

I am doing this thread as a public service. I really can't make it any clearer than that. Some people will understand where I am coming from, most will not, that is fine.

I have already profited from the experience.

Best Regards,
 
Quote from steve46:

What I don't understand is "why criticize the guy for trying to improve his game?"

Looks to me like he wants to try this and maybe make it a part of his rule set.

Kind of a nice contrast from the bullshit that goes on here all the time. Maybe you would be better off over at the "Its impossible to make money trading futures" thread? I am sure a lot of folks are improving their trading skills over there.

Basically I'm thinking I will support folks who at least put some effort into trying it out....

Steve
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Thank you very much for the kind words Steve.

Your post is very apropro.

If new traders (or not so new) can gain anything from the experience of my starting this thread, even if it is only using the Pivot Trend spreadsheet as a basic model for determining market trend and strength, it will have been worth it.

Best Regards,

JJ
 
Quote from JimmyJam:


P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
More...

I looked at your xls yesterday - here's a little trick you might want to add

In B2, enter the ROW # of the day you're calculating. In C2 through L2, change each formula to this: =INDIRECT("C"&$B$2) - of course. you'll change that "C" to "D" for D2, "E" for E2 and so on.

That way, just enter, for example, 37 in B2 and the rest of row 2 will fill in from row 37.
 
Quote from longtex:

I looked at your xls yesterday - here's a little trick you might want to add

In B2, enter the ROW # of the day you're calculating. In C2 through L2, change each formula to this: =INDIRECT("C"&$B$2) - of course. you'll change that "C" to "D" for D2, "E" for E2 and so on.

That way, just enter, for example, 37 in B2 and the rest of row 2 will fill in from row 37.
More...

Thanks a lot longtex.

I thought that formula might exist, but I've never been able to figure it out. It's definitely someting on the wish list though.

Much appreciated.

JJ

P.S. Was just checking out your thread, how's it going?

P.P.S. When I said I had already profited from the experience, this is exactly what I was talking about ... I've been looking for that formula for a loooooooooooong damn time :) ... and I've been getting a lot of this lately.
 
Hey JJ,
I am going to show my ignorance here but I have to ask is this .xls coding you are using going to eventually be a program that you can use to automate this system? I don't know all the ins and outs of excell and even less about programming but the idea of seems very interesting. Keep it up....

Gary
 
Quote from 4re:

Hey JJ,
I am going to show my ignorance here but I have to ask is this .xls coding you are using going to eventually be a program that you can use to automate this system? ... Gary
More...

Es poisble, queiro mas educacion in la disciplina, a programa en la manera ese es muy excellente!

That would be yes.

But that is a whole other discipline and requires more in-depth education on my part, but not for now, though.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Es poisble, queiro mas educacion in la disciplina, a programa en la manera ese es muy excellente!

That would be yes.

But that is a whole other discipline and requires more in-depth education on my part, but not for now, though.
More...

Mooy el coolo

That would mean very cool :D I wish I knew how to do that would love to try. Maybe one day...
 
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