Trading the Moon
- Thread starter yoohoo
- Start date
As they say.....better to be born lucky than smart. 
yoohoo,
Any updates for our current rather remarkable time period.
A brief look at your work from your last post to today would be very appreciated.
Regards,
John
Any updates for our current rather remarkable time period.
A brief look at your work from your last post to today would be very appreciated.
Regards,
John
The XYBER9.com website sells moon trading for a living, and supposedly was nominated for a nobel prize. interesting website for when you want to waste some time pursuing the end of the rainbow. Actually he uses the affect of gravity on the human psych. And gravity is primerly due to moon cycles. Fun stuff but not tradable.
But this thread was fun to read.
But this thread was fun to read.
I never believed in things like lunar cycle effects on human behavior. It just sounded kookie.
Thing is, my wife worked in a police lab years ago and the detectives she worked with all claimed that full moons really brought out the nut cases. The cops apparently really dreaded full moon nights.
Good luck trying to establish an actual cause-and-effect. But apparently there was a noticeable correlation.
Thing is, my wife worked in a police lab years ago and the detectives she worked with all claimed that full moons really brought out the nut cases. The cops apparently really dreaded full moon nights.
Good luck trying to establish an actual cause-and-effect. But apparently there was a noticeable correlation.
Attached is a daily eurusd chart for this year and I have marked in the occurence of new and full moons.
A number of systems can be designed around this. The solar eclipses that happen usually twice a year (which are new moons with the lunar nodes involved) as occured on Feb 7th and August 1st of this year seem to touch of directional moves with range expansion and the zones in between are choppier and more favourable towards scalping type settups. Not always, as prior year data would suggest, but the tendency is there.
However the bread and butter type moves (lower r/r) seem to be there year round is some form or another. Again, not full proof but it ain't half bad.
Even if you flipped a coin with regards to direction and entered a trade at these times you should come out in front if you set the correct parameters re: stops and profit levels. Eventually you can see the price action (or any other analysis for that matter) that occurs around these times, and, (hopefully) boost the batting average with regards to direction.
My favourite quote re: trading the moon that I tell anyone:
"My timing is perfect - its just that my direction is still so so"
A number of systems can be designed around this. The solar eclipses that happen usually twice a year (which are new moons with the lunar nodes involved) as occured on Feb 7th and August 1st of this year seem to touch of directional moves with range expansion and the zones in between are choppier and more favourable towards scalping type settups. Not always, as prior year data would suggest, but the tendency is there.
However the bread and butter type moves (lower r/r) seem to be there year round is some form or another. Again, not full proof but it ain't half bad.
Even if you flipped a coin with regards to direction and entered a trade at these times you should come out in front if you set the correct parameters re: stops and profit levels. Eventually you can see the price action (or any other analysis for that matter) that occurs around these times, and, (hopefully) boost the batting average with regards to direction.
My favourite quote re: trading the moon that I tell anyone:
"My timing is perfect - its just that my direction is still so so"
Cause ---> Effect
Full moon causes market up
Affirm Effect
market up
Therefore Cause is affirmed.
Therefore Full moon is the cause of market up
There's a reason why this is illogical. It's called affirming the consequent.
Example of affirming the consequent:
If Bill Gates owns Fort Knox, then he is rich.
Bill Gates is rich.
Therefore, Bill Gates owns Fort Knox.
Ummm not so fast. I see major slippage and short term loss in those moon charts. This could only have a chance at working if the market is trending up(which it was). I assume moon traders are now out of the game, unless they shorted on a full moon and new moon the last few months of course
Full moon causes market up
Affirm Effect
market up
Therefore Cause is affirmed.
Therefore Full moon is the cause of market up
There's a reason why this is illogical. It's called affirming the consequent.
Example of affirming the consequent:
If Bill Gates owns Fort Knox, then he is rich.
Bill Gates is rich.
Therefore, Bill Gates owns Fort Knox.
Ummm not so fast. I see major slippage and short term loss in those moon charts. This could only have a chance at working if the market is trending up(which it was). I assume moon traders are now out of the game, unless they shorted on a full moon and new moon the last few months of course
I was planning to share a bit more of how I day trade the various moon phases as any of the active traders in ET chat have heard me recently make live calls on eurusd during US business hours can attest, and how I have repeatedly said to anyone there that asks that the sun/moon correlation is the basis of my analysis.I suppose all of those calls were "affirming the consequent" and "illogical" as well.
My hope was that threads such as this would be for people talking with the assumption that the sun/moon/market correlation is a given and not trying to prove that to the doubters. I got no patience anymore to deal with that.
See ya.