trading the momentum cycle

They said:
Padutrader,

As you know a trade has an entrance criteria a profit target and a stop loss - Your R:R ratio is essential within those three. If you keep adjusting the target and stop after you enter according to smaller time frame charts or some internet news you have changed the R:R ratio that allowed you to have a positive expectation of the trade setup. This type of jumping from strategy to book knowledge during a trade will not end well for you.

Trading does not require reading books or quoting people who have written books. Trading requires rigorous testing - either back testing or screen time with copious notes, which is basically forward testing of setups. This will prove if your method/system has a statistical edge or not, again based off of three components; an entrance criteria, target and stop. If you randomly change your R:R (target/stop) mid trade you need to include whatever it was that made you do it into a new bout of rigorous testing.
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the point was the trade made money,went where it was supposed to go....trading is a game of confidence and if you continue to be right you will soon acquire the confidence to let your profits run.
I NEVER trade on NFP day i have seen the market do weirdest of things.so i just was not confident
20 ticks in forex in 5 min charts is damn good.
 
_eug_ said:
Good luck... if news can disrupt trend and your technical then why use them at all?
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it can totally disrupt short time frame charts. which is why many traders ask the same question as you:why use short term time frame.
the main reason traders use short time frames is because of less capital and less patience.
and there are a huge no of traders who are not bothered with trend;scalpers for one
 
_eug_ said:
If you are buying momentum or selling momentum, shouldnt you be all over this bullish hourly bar?
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there is such a thing as too much momentum.
padutrader said:
going to start the weekend early.
have a great weekend guys and gals
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and this what i said....i am finished with trading for the week.
also let me clarify that i said momentum cycle...it is quite possible that the news is out so the momentum would die. but i am NOT looking at charts i am enjoying some whisky and the company of my wife. it is 8 in the evening.
any further clarifications i am happy to answer
 
I am in Thailand so its almost 10pm here... but anyway I am bored and like to discuss trading while watching the market :sneaky:...

I agree that there could be too much momentum but this is a breakout from an accumulation that took over a month to complete... so that base should provide more then just 1 hourly bar of bullish momentum. Again this is all just speculation but I am putting my ideas out there.
 
_eug_ said:
I am in Thailand so its almost 10pm here... but anyway I am bored and like to discuss trading while watching the market :sneaky:...

I agree that there could be too much momentum but this is a breakout from an accumulation that took over a month to complete... so that base should provide more then just 1 hourly bar of bullish momentum. Again this is all just speculation but I am putting my ideas out there.
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nice place but i too like to discuss. once i am profitable i plan to shift to Bangkok. trading forex is illegal here in India.
yes but you may get a cool off...understand that big boys do not want to build positions and risk the long week end so any movement will be due to positions being wound down. if you are trading daily charts this big bar will not be seen at all
 
_eug_ said:
but this is a breakout from an accumulation that took over a month to complete... so that base should provide more then just 1 hourly bar of bullish momentum
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you are right this will continue but it will take a little time...in forex you do get one way movement like stocks
 
padutrader said:
yes that is one of the biggest advantages to trading: in golf you have to hit the next shot you have no choice

but that is exactly the point:after you in you have to survive.
analyse for show, manage for dough.
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Your quite wrong , you havn't really thought about it or worked it out , your"managing", once in and after the expected probability of your entry has worked through ( or indeed "random" entry), your very close to 50/50 chances most of the time .No one agrees with me but for me 99.9% ( approximately) of trading is about a positive probability , you can't get that by managing your exit , only by entering on high probability signals.
 
henry76 said:
Your quite wrong , you havn't really thought about it or worked it out , your"managing", once in and after the expected probability of your entry has worked through ( or indeed "random" entry), your very close to 50/50 chances most of the time .No one agrees with me but for me 99.9% ( approximately) of trading is about a positive probability , you can't get that by managing your exit , only by entering on high probability signals.
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I agree with you. :) I don't understand why so many people do not understand that. It is pure logic, not rocket science. But for some "elitetraders" that seems to be already too difficult. :banghead:
 
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