trading the momentum cycle

ok is this trade gambling? rhetorical question !
long eurusd

the green trend line shows a channel overshoot , the red arrow is good reversal bar, the red horizontal line is a breakout pullback to the tick, blue arrow is my entry,the yellow lines are breakout failure,the blue line is breakout pull back in the bigger picture the stop is 1.1668 [7 pips ,ticks below the lower yellow line, target should be above the high yesterday.The spike up yesterday had enough momentum so expect that to continue.
the only 'elephant in the room', is the NFP numbers today which may change everything but i believe in the technicals and euro should go up after some volatility.i am wondering if my stop is large enough or should it be below the spike at 1.1650, larger by 18 pips.i suspect this is the case and i may put it there
View attachment 188197
update to this long trade, already market has broken previous spike high, see chart
eg10.png
 
ok is this trade gambling? rhetorical question !
long eurusd

the green trend line shows a channel overshoot , the red arrow is good reversal bar, the red horizontal line is a breakout pullback to the tick, blue arrow is my entry,the yellow lines are breakout failure,the blue line is breakout pull back in the bigger picture the stop is 1.1668 [7 pips ,ticks below the lower yellow line, target should be above the high yesterday.The spike up yesterday had enough momentum so expect that to continue.
the only 'elephant in the room', is the NFP numbers today which may change everything but i believe in the technicals and euro should go up after some volatility.i am wondering if my stop is large enough or should it be below the spike at 1.1650, larger by 18 pips.i suspect this is the case and i may put it there
View attachment 188197
closed this trade for a 25 pips profit.....i have had so many losing trades i do not trust myself or eurusd to let my profits run: with NFP in 4 hours anything can happen. i want to trade next week.going to start the weekend early.
have a great weekend guys and gals
 
yes i am trading for 20-30 ticks and i would have got that. i closed with much less because of news: the minutes.

Padutrader,

As you know a trade has an entrance criteria a profit target and a stop loss - Your R:R ratio is essential within those three. If you keep adjusting the target and stop after you enter according to smaller time frame charts or some internet news you have changed the R:R ratio that allowed you to have a positive expectation of the trade setup. This type of jumping from strategy to book knowledge during a trade will not end well for you.

Trading does not require reading books or quoting people who have written books. Trading requires rigorous testing - either back testing or screen time with copious notes, which is basically forward testing of setups. This will prove if your method/system has a statistical edge or not, again based off of three components; an entrance criteria, target and stop. If you randomly change your R:R (target/stop) mid trade you need to include whatever it was that made you do it into a new bout of rigorous testing.
 
BTW, you just showed an example of one of Al's biggest beliefs - 90% of the time (i.e. no large BO), you can pretty much place a trade anywhere and make a profit IF you manage it correctly. Trade management is WAY more important than entries.

I read these statements all the time, but to me they are complete nonsense. Good entries are very important and can make trade management much easier. Trade management can never make a bad random entry profitable. And if you enter at a good price you can also use trade management additionally, so the total result will always be better then a random entry. At least if you know how to enter at a good price.

If you are dealing in cars, why do you always want to pay the lowest price possible (equals good entry)? Because if the buying price is too high you probably cannot make any money in a sale as nobody will want to give you the high price you need to make any money. The problem was you paid too much when you bought the car. There is no kind of management that can fix that problem anymore, your starting position is fixed and you cannot improve your buying price anymore.
 
Basically you get far more choice when you enter as to when you exit , in fact entry is where all a trader's power and probability exist , random entry and then judged exit , has in a way by definition less probability because you are then limited in regards to when and where to be in a mkt .
 
closed this trade for a 25 pips profit.....i have had so many losing trades i do not trust myself or eurusd to let my profits run: with NFP in 4 hours anything can happen. i want to trade next week.going to start the weekend early.
have a great weekend guys and gals

Are you back in now on the break out?

I believe in holding through the news releases if you are confident in your chart analysis.
 
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Trade management can never make a bad random entry profitable.
no ...Unfortunately Brooks is quoted in isolation from the context he said it.Brooks is not an idiot.
He did not become famous as an idiot, like i have.
the fact remains that the market can and does change the game rules after your good entry; in which case only experience and management can save your a*se
 
Are you back in now on the break out?

I believe in holding through the news releases if you are confident in your chart analysis.
many many experienced persons do not trade through news -it is a personal matter.
it is obvious you are quite new to trading:if you like me ,having been confident in the analysis, have blown over 100 accounts, then you also, like me, may change.
the market sometimes just does totally inexplicable things......i would rather be around to trade on monday then blow another account
 
Basically you get far more choice when you enter as to when you exit , in fact entry is where all a trader's power and probability exist , random entry and then judged exit , has in a way by definition less probability because you are then limited in regards to when and where to be in a mkt .
yes that is one of the biggest advantages to trading: in golf you have to hit the next shot you have no choice

but that is exactly the point:after you in you have to survive.
analyse for show, manage for dough.
 
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