trading the momentum cycle

[padutrader]

I don’t agree. Identifying a loser quickly is the most important. Bias is awesome, especially when higher time frames are the reason for your bias. This is the type of bias I find increases my odds of winning, and ironically, of identifying the losers quickly (hey, it’s not supposed to do that.. bail)

identifying bias is important.

Trading bias is the reason for losing trades. everyone knows where the market is going I always knew but it is not enough:you will make money but you will lose more because there is no way to manage the trade.

You need a set up to trade because how else can you manage trade ?

 

[padutrader]

but he’s a gambler.

yes i do gamble ...but i am trying to LEARN to trade.
yes i do trade huge size but i want to back myself, i believe you can predict the markets, you can trade without a single loss, but this will take longer,it takes longer to be perfect,but that is ok. I have paid the price.
i would have done it earlier if i had found this forum earlier.You guys are really helping mentoring me Thank you a big THANK YOU

 

[padutrader]

but he’s a gambler

ok is this trade gambling? rhetorical question !
long eurusd

the green trend line shows a channel overshoot , the red arrow is good reversal bar, the red horizontal line is a breakout pullback to the tick, blue arrow is my entry,the yellow lines are breakout failure,the blue line is breakout pull back in the bigger picture the stop is 1.1668 [7 pips ,ticks below the lower yellow line, target should be above the high yesterday.The spike up yesterday had enough momentum so expect that to continue.
the only 'elephant in the room', is the NFP numbers today which may change everything but i believe in the technicals and euro should go up after some volatility.i am wondering if my stop is large enough or should it be below the spike at 1.1650, larger by 18 pips.i suspect this is the case and i may put it there

 

[padutrader]

but to each their own.

yes i am trading for 20-30 ticks and i would have got that. i closed with much less because of news: the minutes.

 

[padutrader]

Where is your cycle indicator below the chart?

i am not talking about the cycle in the classical sense of the term, but rather referring to the momentum surges or impulse waves, that repeat, like a cycle, not necessarily, in equal time intervals

 

[padutrader]

ok is this trade gambling? rhetorical question !
long eurusd

the green trend line shows a channel overshoot , the red arrow is good reversal bar, the red horizontal line is a breakout pullback to the tick, blue arrow is my entry,the yellow lines are breakout failure,the blue line is breakout pull back in the bigger picture the stop is 1.1668 [7 pips ,ticks below the lower yellow line, target should be above the high yesterday.The spike up yesterday had enough momentum so expect that to continue.
the only 'elephant in the room', is the NFP numbers today which may change everything but i believe in the technicals and euro should go up after some volatility.i am wondering if my stop is large enough or should it be below the spike at 1.1650, larger by 18 pips.i suspect this is the case and i may put it there
View attachment 188197

modified stop to 1.1637..below the spike...this may be warranted because of NFP....this will increase the probability but reduce the RR. in any case this trade has more going for it and with NFP being the trigger expect eur to go up; the question is how much and when will the shakeout come?

 

[treeman]

One of the big issues is that you never really give a reason for the trades you do. I’m not sure there are any, other than feel. And that’s fine, as long as it’s a small percentage of your total, and you’re looking to either add to it or bail, but you’re just taking the plunge.

I wish you all the best, you know more than most about how markets behave, but your approach to the markets is off. I’m not the first to point this out to you. 3 day tests and then onto the next shiny object is not a strategy. I feel you’d be better off where you started (Bollinger bands), playing the different w’s and m’s and getting the fuck out of currencies.

 

[padutrader]

One of the big issues is that you never really give a reason for the trades you do.

above i have given more than 5 reasons for the trade.....thank you for your opinion....i know the above trade is a good one for all the reasons i have mentioned.
i know i am improving and that is all we can aim for

 

[Handle123]

I guess we all do get what we want out of the markets.

It’s good reading, and I can’t say I haven’t learned a thing or two from his posts, but he’s a gambler. Even if it is to pass time, it’s no different than the blue haired old ladies sitting at the nickel slot machines. I’ve met a few who swear by their video poker strategies. It passes the time....

You absolutely get what we want from trading, but it might never be profits for many.

I have a close friend living in Vegas, she plays nothing but video poker for past 22 years, lost 2 of them of less than 20k and normally does over 100k per year. I have watched her and she goes into robot mode of 500 hands an hour, she always carries $20k with her, she very knowledgeable of which casinos pays most for Royal flush and plays all the tournaments, she averages 1.5 cars a year, but where she consistently "scalps" is those cards you put into the machines and get so many points, she cashes them in October for whatever she can sell on Ebay, so this is a steady amount each year. Casino's comp here anything and everything, shows, food, rooms, airline tickets to other cities to play other casinos.
She has a good job doing it and IRS recognizes her as a gambler.

But even in trading we are gambling, some more skilled that most, and knowing the probabilities of what to play.

From Nov of 2016 to Jan of 2018 the market was making new all time highs over and over and no one quit trading long. It is all about trade management.

Actually, my long term commodities system, been shorting most of the Indexes since 2016 And am short since February, and I hedge any position over 29 minutes, but I still have long term stocks and hedged them for when S&P slope went insane, I don't foretell how far or when it will end, system does look for turning points when to hedge open profits. I been studying much more on how to trade as if I was a hedge fund, but unlike them, hedge more and monitor drawdowns often. I am only concerned with drawdowns and not profits.


@padutrader

Most of your charting and terminology, I simple don't understand, most likely it is me.
I can't stand Brooks books, horrible writer.
I do know I am much more rigid in drawing trendlines so that it can be programmed, I never draw through bars.
I am very systematic, so I can explain to self at end of the day why I took some signal
I only trade very long term in Forex but seldom day trading as I prefer futures, dealers make the prices usually, I am unclear of platform of Forex if you place stops, can the dealers "see" them?

Enclosed is a chart for you, "ideas" of what I see, but did not trade it as I am usually doing ES, can finally think I have become a decent trader. Life is hard though.

 

[padutrader]

You absolutely get what we want from trading, but it might never be profits for many.

I have a close friend living in Vegas, she plays nothing but video poker for past 22 years, lost 2 of them of less than 20k and normally does over 100k per year. I have watched her and she goes into robot mode of 500 hands an hour, she always carries $20k with her, she very knowledgeable of which casinos pays most for Royal flush and plays all the tournaments, she averages 1.5 cars a year, but where she consistently "scalps" is those cards you put into the machines and get so many points, she cashes them in October for whatever she can sell on Ebay, so this is a steady amount each year. Casino's comp here anything and everything, shows, food, rooms, airline tickets to other cities to play other casinos.
She has a good job doing it and IRS recognizes her as a gambler.

But even in trading we are gambling, some more skilled that most, and knowing the probabilities of what to play.



Actually, my long term commodities system, been shorting most of the Indexes since 2016 And am short since February, and I hedge any position over 29 minutes, but I still have long term stocks and hedged them for when S&P slope went insane, I don't foretell how far or when it will end, system does look for turning points when to hedge open profits. I been studying much more on how to trade as if I was a hedge fund, but unlike them, hedge more and monitor drawdowns often. I am only concerned with drawdowns and not profits.


@padutrader

Most of your charting and terminology, I simple don't understand, most likely it is me.
I can't stand Brooks books, horrible writer.
I do know I am much more rigid in drawing trendlines so that it can be programmed, I never draw through bars.
I am very systematic, so I can explain to self at end of the day why I took some signal
I only trade very long term in Forex but seldom day trading as I prefer futures, dealers make the prices usually, I am unclear of platform of Forex if you place stops, can the dealers "see" them?

Enclosed is a chart for you, "ideas" of what I see, but did not trade it as I am usually doing ES, can finally think I have become a decent trader. Life is hard though.

thanks it takes a lot of effort to post
trading is an opportunity because you can customize it to your needs :it is like getting a job that fits what you would want exactly.
my method fits my needs wants and personality, as i see it.
if i use Tiger's golf clubs i will not play like him. you have be yourself and only in the markets you can do that that is why i am here