Hmm, let's say you bought at the highest point of 50 years. How are you going to manage yourself out of this trade?
trading the momentum cycle
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Hmm, let's say you bought at the highest point of 50 years. How are you going to manage yourself out of this trade?
It’s his latest try. This will last 3 days like all the others. Which is probably why he can’t find a system. I also strongly suspect some trade size issues as well. I guess we all do get what we want out of the markets.
It’s good reading, and I can’t say I haven’t learned a thing or two from his posts, but he’s a gambler. Even if it is to pass time, it’s no different than the blue haired old ladies sitting at the nickel slot machines. I’ve met a few who swear by their video poker strategies. It passes the time....
It’s good reading, and I can’t say I haven’t learned a thing or two from his posts, but he’s a gambler. Even if it is to pass time, it’s no different than the blue haired old ladies sitting at the nickel slot machines. I’ve met a few who swear by their video poker strategies. It passes the time....
Good post. He's definitely a gambler.
Anybody that shorts that specific example, is purely gambling IMO, and doen't have any well prove stats to back up their trade. You'll never get a positive ROI shorting that area, I've done the back tests. Either look for blowout volume, wait for price risk, ie setup bar, then short, or wait for price to break to a Lower low, then short at resistance. not hard. Don't pick tops
"Looks like the trend is going to fail" as he says. Yah, I've said that to myself many many times. Hell, scalping the NQ this morning, I said it looks like its going to reverse on 2-3 separate waves, yet it didn't, system churned out some good trend trades instead and I made money. Its never about what you "think is going to happen". Its always about what is currently happening.
From Nov of 2016 to Jan of 2018 the market was making new all time highs over and over and no one quit trading long. It is all about trade management.
yes i am trading only one the momentum dying....but as i often said i am no expert trader..[.though like many persons i have a lot of knowledge about technical analysis having studied it for 25 years ] and even if you have a reason for a bias, you still need a set up to enter.This is one thing i have learned and it has cost me plenty: trade set ups not bias.
trading bias is the single reason most people lose.
I don’t agree. Identifying a loser quickly is the most important. Bias is awesome, especially when higher time frames are the reason for your bias. This is the type of bias I find increases my odds of winning, and ironically, of identifying the losers quickly (hey, it’s not supposed to do that.. bail)
yes this trade was, in principle, right but entry was wrong...because even though momentum was dying, there were no sign or confirmation of a reversal.
In my opinion, a good reversal bar,which has something to reverse, is confirmation enough, in any time frame,but especially in the smaller time frames, where the moves are not large in ticks terms.It gives a very good RR and if you trade GOOD RR even if you lose 60% of the time you will make a lot of money. You will lose more than if you wait for confirmation.
all the reversal bars see chart [marked with a yellow arrow] in the swing up [marked with the yellow box] were not reversal bars at all: they were tiny and had a 'doji' type of look and occurred before a trend line break or other sign of counter trend strength.
Only the last one , looked strong: it occurred after two attempts to go up,the two up bars before the reversal bar.This is the first sign of counter trend strength.And it occurred after a trend line break:there was a channel overshoot.
To quote Brooks a channel overshoot alone is not enough [to trade reversal], you need a good reversal bar or a sign of counter trend strength.
further confirmation same on the 7th bar, after the reversal bar when the market confirmed the the lower high and lower low,another important sign of weakness,along with the other signs, so it had added weight.short entry here would have given a good RR.
And there was a break out failure.
trading [in hindsight] is easy....
if you saw the 15 min there was channel overshoot and a good reversal bar see chart
This is for you:all of the above is what Brooks calls a MTR and since it is a higher high MTR expect two legs down which you got, see the third chart
In my opinion, a good reversal bar,which has something to reverse, is confirmation enough, in any time frame,but especially in the smaller time frames, where the moves are not large in ticks terms.It gives a very good RR and if you trade GOOD RR even if you lose 60% of the time you will make a lot of money. You will lose more than if you wait for confirmation.
all the reversal bars see chart [marked with a yellow arrow] in the swing up [marked with the yellow box] were not reversal bars at all: they were tiny and had a 'doji' type of look and occurred before a trend line break or other sign of counter trend strength.
Only the last one , looked strong: it occurred after two attempts to go up,the two up bars before the reversal bar.This is the first sign of counter trend strength.And it occurred after a trend line break:there was a channel overshoot.
To quote Brooks a channel overshoot alone is not enough [to trade reversal], you need a good reversal bar or a sign of counter trend strength.
further confirmation same on the 7th bar, after the reversal bar when the market confirmed the the lower high and lower low,another important sign of weakness,along with the other signs, so it had added weight.short entry here would have given a good RR.
And there was a break out failure.
trading [in hindsight] is easy....
if you saw the 15 min there was channel overshoot and a good reversal bar see chart
This is for you:all of the above is what Brooks calls a MTR and since it is a higher high MTR expect two legs down which you got, see the third chart
yes i too am learning what not to do...my trading has improved considerable by doing this. if i had joined this forum and done this 10 years back i would have saved at least 100000 usd.
this is why many great traders say they teach....because they learn while doing it.
Making a fool out of myself is a small price to pay, to learn and get others to mentor me for free.
That is why i am asking traders here to post charts,which you have done
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