T/P at 1,481.0 on 50 x 1,450 RUSSELL longs of 27aug
T/P at 19.53 on 600 x 17.2 VIXsep longs of 21aug
T/P at 19.53 on 600 x 17.2 VIXsep longs of 21aug
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Trading the Indices on Fundamentals
- Thread starter FXtrader8911
- Start date
A session gain of over 1% on some talk about the possibility of resuming talks is quite silly. Tariffs themselves have little impact on earning of US companies... Trump is quite right in saying the tariffs are paid by the Chinese... surveys have shown that, so far, the Wall Marts of the world have simply told the supplier to absorb the tariff by discounting the price and the Chinese suppliers have done so, the effect on the US consumer has been nonexistent. What does have a big impact on earnings is whether US companies will or won't have unrestricted access to the Chinese consumer, and so far, China is silent on this and in fact has renigged on previous promises of allowing companies to enter their markets without a Chinese partner
There are many other headwinds besides China that give indications that earnings of US companies will not raise in the near future, consequently, there is no fundamental reason for markets to go higher.
There are many other headwinds besides China that give indications that earnings of US companies will not raise in the near future, consequently, there is no fundamental reason for markets to go higher.
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Money from around the globe has to park somewhere.
I would also say money flows are fundamental.
An interesting exercise is to look at the major US stock indices in terms of OTHER currency.
Highs and lows are the most relevant in your home currency.
I do not understand this logic. The main fundamental reason the markets CAN go higher is exactly because of the consumer. And that directly impacts the bottom line of companies. They (the consumer) have more money to spend, the interest rates are really low so they are taking on more loans, more and more people are getting employed, wages are going higher, consumption was going higher...
The tariff thing is the unnecessary blight on the world economy. Things were going quite well until last year when Crazy Orange started this shit.
What headwind, aside from the tariffs causing the start of a downturn in the economy, where businesses now invest less in their expansions, R&D for new product, creating new jobs, all because of the uncertainty of the disruption to their bottom lines on supply-chains and costs for materiel sourcing?
Well, we were nearing the peak of our 1 month range in the main equities. And it is going down again. I suspect the White House will come out with that tariff headline before Sunday, about how it is going in, and etc blah blah.
Take 'er down.
Revenue does not automatically equate to profits, more specifically, higher then previously reported profits.
This is true. But forward guidance does. And with the trade war causing guidance to go down, the stocks will go down. ONE MAN.
Trust me...With no resolution, these waves are going to reverberate for years through the market. The trade war must stop NOW, or bulls (401K etc), mutual fund etc are going to suffer a recession. AGAIN. There is NO NEED for this to happen. NONE
I would be inclined to call this as sentiment buying which is what causes bubbles to form... markets will, sooner or later, gravitate towards the fundamental fair value... sentiment can overshoot them to dizzy heights until a flush-out occurs then they overcorrect, but will eventually gravitate to neutral. Trade the overshoots and the over corrections and collect handsome profits, however, shorting is always a specialist's trade and can be dangerous as sentiment can sometimes elevate markers long enough for fundamentals to catch-up but if you long the over-corrections, you have sure profitable trades.
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Agree, Government procurement and tendering has sufficient clout to achieve the same effect without a trade war, so Trump has the right idea but the wrong method. If Trump issued an executive order barring all government procurement from purchasing "made in China" goods and all tenders specified the exclusion of "made in China" components, the effect would be just as grate, probably more immediate and more helpfull to American industry than tariffs. i.e no "made in China" goods nor goods including Chinese components to be found anywhere in Government... (sorry Apple, no iPhones for Government departments but the iPads still made in Texas would be fine).
American aid already incorporates such conditions so just expand it to cover all Government purchases not just for aid (aid has to be American made and shipped on American carriers)
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A good day for the Europeans, flat for the US making it a down month for August, the DOW is over 1,000pts off its high. interesting to note that the rally in the US in early market did not dip the VIX. Big tech was quite resilient for the month and this puts it on the front line to get hit hardest if Sep sells off. New tariffs kick on the 1st, we are yet to see whether these become the focus of the consumer, so far, consumers have been unphased to the whole trade thing, if this changes, market sentiment might well change also.
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