Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

After a volatile week, stocks could see more big swings next week as the markets digest new information on trade and the strength of the economy but Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, says stocks could trade at their highs again by the end of the month. He based this call on Tue sell-off that was a retest of the May pullback, but Stovall's view is not that of the majority.

Other fund managers & Investors remain with an open mind with a bias on further sell-off based on forward guidance and earnings reported so far both indicating a decline in business which for now has been off-set by consumer confidence and will be watching to see how stocks react to key variables, like the level of Treasury yields and the Chinese currency. Some say that if consumer confidence declines, the probability of a recession becomes 50%

Walmart, Cisco Systems, Nvidia and Deere are among the companies reporting next week as the second-quarter earnings season winds down. There are also some important economic reports coming out next week, these Investors will look to make sense of CPI inflation data Tuesday and retail sales, PCE inflation data, industrial production and the regional Fed survey on Thursday.

My view allings with the latter plus I'm not optomistic that the figures will be good, my strategy is based on the ocurance of a further sell-off. Remaining shorts are set to t/p at below the May lows and have buy orders at levels below that.
 
The 8th August lows were revisited (1,600 Dow pts below highs), I did some buying at those levels DOW, NDAQ, RUSSELL, STOXX50, NIKK, I also bought some HSI at its lows in Asia but I might regret that trade. My long held view that Sep will see a sizable correction is unaltered, my next round of buys and also t/p of shorts is at -5% from here, I also got buys spaced-out at 3% going all the way to Dec lows (DOW at 21,500)

Adding to the political problemd in HKG, Italy & Argentina, there are a number of key US economic reports coming out this week, if these confirm a temporary slowdown (having the potential to become permanent if trade becomes a never ending story), I think bull sentiment will be deflated at least till next reporting season where I expect a renewed bull domination. Not to mention that if indeed Sep sees a Dec18 like sell-off, we can count on Trump to pull something out of his sleeve (after blaming Powell for it)
 
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FXtrader8911 said:
we can count on Trump to pull something out of his sleeve
More...

Unexpected rallies are always welcomed, but has anything changed? Y'day China was unwilling to talk, t'day they are ready to negotiate... looks like pigments of imagination in Trump's mind to me... China's agenda does not turn around on a dime, its more like Kudlow storming into the oval office and telling Trump to tone down or the markets will drop 5,000pts.

Changing the effective date of tariff implementation just adds to the uncertainty business is facing, not sure why markets reacted positively. My long term strategy is not changing, however, as a trader, one takes what's given while waiting for the strategy to play-out. t/p on all my 12th buys, another $11k day bringing the month to +$45.4K, still holding some shorts and the buy orders ready to trigger at -5% (-8.5% from High) and beyond.
 
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Another day another security breach Facebook had to admit to. Then Zuckerburg will be dragged kicking and screaming in front of some hearing where he will put on his humble face, apologize, promise to do things better in future, his henchwoman will then issue a statement saying how passionate Mark and her are about protecting privacy. End of hearing, all goes back to how it was... gathering even more personal data to sell to advertisers for maximum revenue. Zuckerberg did not only lerm Mandarine in China, he lerned their way of life... "agree to everything then continue as you were". I guess its all up to the users, as long as they like being treated as fools and let Facebook make money from them, Zuckerberg has no incentive to change... wait till he gets cought, apologize and carry on.
 
FXtrader8911 said:
Facebook
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Yes this company does lack social morality. Lucky for add blockers!! I personally post no private information on fb. I use it for the groups only.

Interesting night last night. I think I went to bed a little too early :( When countries are looking to run zero interest rate policies all is not well.
 
I was away for a week so ignored the week's noise, however, now looking at the bigger picture, I closed my 15th US Indices longs, thus putting me back net short in the US, this is in preparation of Powell putting his foot in his mouth and the subsequent potential sell-off. The positions were showing $15.1k profit, though I take it before Powell does.

All pre-Powell Feds really know-nothing. Powell tops the list of the know-nothing chairs, I can't see this guy doing anything until a recession stares him in the face, his "data dependent" policy is by nature "acting behind the curve", he is incapable of even reading the date (as shown last Oct & Dec) let alone be in front of the curve. I've previously made the call of a sell-off by Sep, I think we are very close to the trigger point. US PMI is in recession, Germany is in recession, EU as a whole is approaching recession, there is no progress in sight for a trade resolution and then there's BREXIT. Only the consumer is upbeat, once that setiment goes, the sell-off is on and whatever the Fed does then, it will be too late.
 
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Sell first, ask later was the theme... Trump is angry, "who knows what he'll do over the week-end" was on the mind, so sell, sell, sell.

If you thought US stocks were getting slammed then spare a thought for the China large-cap ETF.... down 9% compared to 2% for the US
 
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Anyone that thought Trump was not a strategist needs to think again. He spent the whole week bashing the Fed and Powell in particular, knowing that Powell would take the bait, go to Jackson hole beating the independence drum and make a speech aimed at showing all that he won't cave in to Trump's demands by not committing to cuts... Powell was set-up to take the fall if markets tank, after the speech, Trump announces that Powell is a bigger threat to America's economy than China.

Trump has given himself leave to let markets tank by 2,000 or more DOW pts, blame Powell for that meanwhile praising himself for getting even tougher on China.

All the cards are in place for the awaited correction, not least that volumes are low so movements get magnified. I am already net short US with buy orders srarting at 24,600 (DOW). The 22,000 handle could be seen before a reversal.
 
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