Trading the Indices on Fundamentals
- Thread starter FXtrader8911
- Start date
Closing at -2.1% the ASX was the worst performer of all, even worst that the HSI who is on the verge of being put under marshal law. Perhaps the insiders had a weekend meeting over 18 holes and determined that enough retail and mon&pop players got suckered in buying high so now its time to sell, pocket their money and fly off to the Bahamas on private jets.. they'll come back to suck-up the cheap prices when the time is right. I got buy orders at 5,930 and won't touch the ASX till it gets there.
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Keep an eye on the Russell2000, it dosn'thave hi-flyers distorting it, it is 14% down, it's feasible that if big tech brakes down, the other indices will catch up to the Russell and shed another 5% to 7%. APPLE has most to lose with the tariffs & Chinese boycots but was only 3% down, I expect it to drop further.(fancy Tim Cook deciding to shift its remaining US production to China at this time! You'd think he'd at least wait a while. Not a good managed company still riding on Job's coattail)
In all I had a good session, t/p on several shorts for a +$11k session, still holding several shorts, will be net neutal when S&P reaches 2,791
In all I had a good session, t/p on several shorts for a +$11k session, still holding several shorts, will be net neutal when S&P reaches 2,791
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My S&P target of 2,791 was reached pre Asia (got to 2,777 before reversing). After Asia open, a rally started. Perhaps we have seen the bottom.
We've dropped more on less. China yuan devaluation following a new tariff threat with a threat of more increases in the future? I wouldn't trust this rally with a ...39 1/2 foot pole!
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It could be like Aug 2015 on steroids (Or Quaaludes, depending on the speed of the drop.)
Don't bring up bad memories... I got caught big on 24th August 2015! in % wise Aug15 and y'day were equal but in points, almost double. Took me 8 months to recover the Aug15 losses (almost $½m), but taught me to never get complacent... lesson learned, this time I made money and bought hand over fist at the bottom (hope it was the bottom) to make even more on the recovery.
The irony of Aug15 is that I was 50% hedged with the VIX, in a bout of temporary insanity I took profit on the VIX hedge (3,000 Units), within an hour markets tanked and I was left with balls exposed to be whacked at each downtick.
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EU open showed contunuing strenght carried-on from the Aian session, US futures are up 1%. Seems the sell-off has paused for now. I t/p on some CAC & MIB shorts putting me net 37 long contracts. I do think another attempt to take markets lower will be made but for now I'll be playing the long end and will add to my VIX longs as a hedge.
US markets had a positive session after the dramatic after-market fall of y'day caused by indications that China was ready to weaponize its currency in retaliation to the tariffs, EU hardly participated in the rally but is expected to catch-up somewhat today. In the absence of new factors, I see the below resistance as a possible stall to the current rally. I'm still expecting a grater wash-out than we had before the rally gets confirmed, revisiting Dec lows is not ruled out. The Stong USD is a problem for growth.. I don't see Powell having the mental capacity to understand this so as long as China dangles the threat of a currency war, there's not much to sustain the current rally but I think things will change by year-end but not before a flush-out
ASX200 6,522
NIK225 20,822
FTSE100 7,275
DAX30 11,771
MDAX50 25,551
CAC40 5,333
HSI43 26,393
MIB40 21,043
IBEX35 8,917
EU50/STOXX50 3,352
US DOW 26,253
US Russell2000 1,514
US SPX500 2,907
US NDAQ100 7,587
ASX200 6,522
NIK225 20,822
FTSE100 7,275
DAX30 11,771
MDAX50 25,551
CAC40 5,333
HSI43 26,393
MIB40 21,043
IBEX35 8,917
EU50/STOXX50 3,352
US DOW 26,253
US Russell2000 1,514
US SPX500 2,907
US NDAQ100 7,587
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Asia opened soft today. As it lead the rally y'day, it could be indicative of a general softness.
Took-out ¼ of y'day longs on the S&P at 2,880, NDAQ at 7520 and DOW at 25858, total gain $5,740, I left other longs in place.
Took-out ¼ of y'day longs on the S&P at 2,880, NDAQ at 7520 and DOW at 25858, total gain $5,740, I left other longs in place.
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