Trading the incoming recession

[Visaria]

I have always believed that you are more likely to see a higher return investing in yourself than investing in the market. During the last recession, I started a small business that I expected would maybe make $10K in its lifetime. Lifetime profit hit ~1.5 million this month. That may not be anything for you guys, but I like it. Along with this and other investments, not even talking about my consulting income, I think that I have prepared myself pretty well: even if shit hits the fan, I have income producing assets that are necessary in any economy, assuming the apocalypse does not occur.

Wish me luck.

Fantastic!

 

[entropytrading]

by the way, I have decided to use Autosock snow socks AS645 to fit my 205/45-17 tires

 

[tomorton]

Why not short every (overvalued) stock or buy put options.

Sound strategy. If you can't (or won't) go short, I'm not sure you can be called a full "trader".

 

[viruscore1]

I'm sure many here are familiar with put writing income strategy. Especially from option hawkersters on youtube. I've been reversing the strategy using call writing. So far so good.

 

[entropytrading]

the only issue is I hear snow socks tear off quickly as they are made of textile, making them kinda disposable but costing $100. What's your experience

 

[tomorton]

the only issue is I hear snow socks tear off quickly as they are made of textile, making them kinda disposable but costing $100. What's your experience

Actually, I live in dear old Devon where it hardly ever snows. But wouldn't snow tyres be a better answer?

 

[entropytrading]

Not when you just drive to ski a few times a season

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Cost of snow tires is negligible in comparison if you get good ones. I have Pirelli snow tires on my RWD and the cost of storing w/ the mechanic is $120/year. They also last between 4-5 seasons as opposed to 2 or so for all season tires.

 

[murray t turtle]

Pretty simple strategy. Do exactly what you didn't do in 2008, the last great recession. Sell every depreciating risky asset you have - that includes every stock you own, which includes your home(s) or any non-income producing real estate. Maybe keep your bond holdings for the valuable stable income you will need, but even those will be risky due to the accompanying default risk cycle. Put everything into cash and have the coffers full for the next great firesale in stocks and real estate. Rent if you have to.

When the bottom falls out and everyone is capitulating and puking everything they own, turn around and buy everything you used to own at a 75% to 90% discount for what you sold it 2 or 3 yrs earlier. Just like 2010-2011 you will be able to name your price on any risky asset, because you have what everyone wants during an armageddon, "the sky is falling economy"...cash.

Let history repeat itself, but this time don't be the one left holding the bag. Don't try and catch a falling knife, but when sentiment and fundamentals starts to turn, open the coffers and buy any quality risky asset at bargain basement prices with open arms.

%%
Great post, especially about trying to catch a falling knife/falling safe, both of which are not safe, not safe @ all.LOL
A good variation on that- no need to sell paid for RE, especially if you have a huge amount of price data for your area. Real Estate is much, much, much, much , more, local than stock market.I lived in a travel trailer while building a home , for about 95% +/cash, slow build.

Another variation on that, but i would not do it with single stocks , like Carl Ichan does. In Bear of 2008, he did not want to sell anything much, so rather than ''gate''his hedge fund, like most did; he pulled the funds out of another fund + let his investors get out, if they wanted to.Another thing i like about Carl Ichan, not just his well above average %% gain; when he announces a stock buy= it tends to be real, real early in the trend. He did cut a loss on bear market stock CHK......................................................................................................................

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I agree with not selling paid for RE. Doesn't make sense unless you're in an inflated area. Some major cities are seeing price declines now.

> I lived in a travel trailer while building a home , for about 95% +/cash, slow build.

You can't say this without uploading pictures of your home. It's against the rules of the Internet