Trading NQ via Price Action
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You mean that in terms of the 72 trade - which formed at the midpoint of the range (around tuesdays low), which formed wednesday evening?
Or do you mean it in terms of breaks from opening ranges?
I googled "Teresa Lo" but can't seem to find much about her. Is she still involved in this trading industry?
Working hard... following Db's advice... looking at ranges... and focusing on the hourly chart and seeing what happens in the lower time frame when price reaches those important levels on the hourly chart.
Here we have a chart from yesterday... a 5 min chart. After the big drop, we settled into the range that was a good 25 points wide.
A - Here we broke out the top, but didn't go far. We made it all the way to the bottom of the range.
B - On Sunday now, we broke out just below, and came right back into this range.
C - So here we are now... and what can happen? I have a line drawn across here, which is both a case of a bit of support from Friday, but which can very well be resistance now.
But if I take into account this wide range, and when I saw price reject going above at A and return back into it and make it all the way to the bottom, then given that this same thing a happens at B, I expect price to at least go all the way back up to test the upper limits at 4225.
If on the other hand we actually reverse here at C, then what my little brain tells me from all the charts that I've looked at, when we only make it halfway within the range and don't test the other extreme, then this very much favors dropping right through the bottom and going lower.
The best trade happened at B. Once price poked below, and re-entered the range above B, a long there was a solid trade, just like a short below A once price re-entered the range. I say this was a good trade because I'm seeing that if a poke above a range is made but price re-enters the range, then a test of the other extreme is likely. But now its tricky here in the middle... and I'm curious to see what happens.
The two red lines on the chart could very well prove to be important levels if price gets that high, in addition of course to the high at A (which I draw a pink resistance line from), but this for now isn't resistance, just an inability of traders to find a trade beyond this level. Once price rejects here again, then I can call this resistance.
If you're reading Db and you see something that needs correcting in my thinking, I'd love to be corrected.
Here we have a chart from yesterday... a 5 min chart. After the big drop, we settled into the range that was a good 25 points wide.
A - Here we broke out the top, but didn't go far. We made it all the way to the bottom of the range.
B - On Sunday now, we broke out just below, and came right back into this range.
C - So here we are now... and what can happen? I have a line drawn across here, which is both a case of a bit of support from Friday, but which can very well be resistance now.
But if I take into account this wide range, and when I saw price reject going above at A and return back into it and make it all the way to the bottom, then given that this same thing a happens at B, I expect price to at least go all the way back up to test the upper limits at 4225.
If on the other hand we actually reverse here at C, then what my little brain tells me from all the charts that I've looked at, when we only make it halfway within the range and don't test the other extreme, then this very much favors dropping right through the bottom and going lower.
The best trade happened at B. Once price poked below, and re-entered the range above B, a long there was a solid trade, just like a short below A once price re-entered the range. I say this was a good trade because I'm seeing that if a poke above a range is made but price re-enters the range, then a test of the other extreme is likely. But now its tricky here in the middle... and I'm curious to see what happens.
The two red lines on the chart could very well prove to be important levels if price gets that high, in addition of course to the high at A (which I draw a pink resistance line from), but this for now isn't resistance, just an inability of traders to find a trade beyond this level. Once price rejects here again, then I can call this resistance.
If you're reading Db and you see something that needs correcting in my thinking, I'd love to be corrected.
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So as a followup to last night, here is what I will be watching. We didn't quite make it to 4225, the top of that range from yesterday, but came close, within 5 point, to turn at 4220.
This morning now we broke through 4201, but found support at 4197 again, although that just broke... so it looks like we are heading down since we didn't make it far after the first bounce at 4197.
This morning now we broke through 4201, but found support at 4197 again, although that just broke... so it looks like we are heading down since we didn't make it far after the first bounce at 4197.
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Here is the 1 minute. Really hard to decide right now which way its gonna go. We do have a lower low, broke below 4197, but we very quickly came back up... so it looks like I will have to wait to either test that low at 4195 again, or make a higher high above 4202.
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We still have the midline on the weekly at 40 and a potential daily level at 44...
Trading the extremes with the trend..that is my private task atm
Trading the extremes with the trend..that is my private task atm
The beauty of it is that we do not have to decide which way the market is going to go. All anyone of us can do is merely decide for oneself how he or she is going to interact with it. That is what your trading plan tells you. The trading plan makes your decisions, if not easy, at least easier. The market always makes the first move. The trading plan instructs the trader that "if the market does x, I will do y in response."
I've followed your journal for a long time because you have some very good contributors - DbPhoenix, NoDoji, and Redneck among them. I doubt I can be very much help to you. You have been given very good advice, not only by those three but by a number of others. The best I can do is this: Here is a 5 minute bar interval chart of the NQ from the last few days, and I just have the NY session hours plotted. All I do is look for price levels where an opportunity to trade profitably might occur. If and when price arrives, there are certain things I look for, for example, does price do what one would expect it to do or does the dog not bark? Does price make it all the way to an expected level or does it do buyers/sellers run out of steam before hand. It is all information the market is giving you. But you have to decide what it means to you and your interactions with the market.
I drew some arrows to focus attention on where opportunities to trade were, and to show how one could have identified these levels in advance. Next, you need to determine how you will interact, or not, with the market at these levels. Keep in mind that there are all kinds of trading taking place at all the levels you see in that chart - winners winning and losers losing, day traders, hedgers, funds, etc. IMO, I prefer not to trade all over the place. I let others trade all over the place, and then I pay attention when something changes. Those are then the places I watch for in the future. Sometimes the future never comes, sometimes it is the next day, and sometimes it is only a matter of minutes. My trading plan lets be ready for it whenever it shows up.
