So do you actually have a number worked out that you refer to in your head to let you know how confident you are in this particular trade? What would your parameters be for the context of this trade? I think something like an overnight range, a test of the previous swing high that is rejected, a test of the previous swing low that is penetrated.... and now figure out how often it goes lower rather than higher again? And these stats you would collect for the hourly chart?
No, I don't have a number. But I've been doing this for twenty years. As to your other questions, finding answers, even if they're only tentative, is what testing is all about. The chief question is whether or not you can stop trading long enough to search for them.