Trading NQ via Price Action

[k p]

Aye, not the best day.

First chart shows a trade prior to the open. I had my 5 min trendlines draw, saw a close below the DL, and took a short. I held through the first RET that broke back above the DL, but it came back down quickly again. With price coming own, just as expected, there was no need to exit. But just as quickly, a quick rise up again, it still formed a higher low, so I'm still good. Eventually though you can see where I did get out. Not bad. Perhaps its a bit late into the down move, but I think the trade was set up well since I waited for a break of the 5 min DL.

So I'm starting at -$34

After this I had to redraw my 5 min trendlines so lets move to the next chart.

O - We open close to both the SL and DL, so a trade should set up soon.

A - We don't quite make it the SL, and out of nowhere, price drops, and drops fast.

B - Goes right through the OL low, and comes to rest just below the PDL. I'm looking for an entry below the DL, but price was dropping just too quick.

C - Coming back up, I'm thinking that we will test the breakout level, but price just keeps going!

D - I have a fairly good setup here for a long, the break above the SL, but the entry is a bit high for some reason, 1.25 points above the previous bar high. I cannot tell you why I'm out so quickly, just sliding around my targets and it got hit.

E - Here we have a series of lows, a micro range, and a FBO below.

F - This makes me put on a long here. I can at least make it for a couple of points to test the previous hight at D, and if it breaks through, even better.

Sadly, I'm out for just over a point. Sliding the targets once again. The tiniest move down makes me want to lock in profits so I slide the profit target down, and as price came up again, I couldn't slide my profit target higher fast enough. This is a shame an a problem that needs to be fixed.

So now I'm at -$7.

G - This to me is a logical long, a simple RET, and I'm now starting to think I should use 2 tick entries, so this would would be hit just before price drops. The swing low holds though.

H - Since the low held, this seems like another good place to go long, but this is all congestion now. (none of these are taken)

I - Another long is marked. This low below is actually a higher low, so once again, we can make it to the top of the range at least for 2 points, and maybe even break through.

This would never fill, and at the top we in fact have a double top, just below the OH even.

J - This is of course where a great short would be, but we are in an uptrend, in an area of consolidation, and there is no space below the bottom of this range. It does drop out the bottom, but I don't think any way to know.

K - We bounce off here, and even though its the OL, its not as prominent since we already broke below and got to B.

L - I entered a long here thinking that we hit the bottom and if it fills over a point above this bar below, we might very be going back up, forming perhaps a wide upslopping channel and then I could connect the lows of B and K to get a profit target up above.

Well let me tell you, price shot right up to my entry, filled, and shot back down in barely 10 seconds it seems and I was stopped out with just my automatic preset stop of 3 points. I had no time to even think. Its literally as if someone could see where my entry was, grabbed it, and ran away with my money. Price just kept dropping so I guess it was good to have a preset stop, but this left me in a bit of shock.

I had such an emotional resposnse to be honest. I'm playing a game where the goal is to screw the next guy, but I'm always the next guy! LOL... I can laugh about it now, but I have so many, so many entires that fill on the highest tick and I never see a cent of profit. Its like these algos know exactly how I think... maybe there is a chip implanted into my brain that is sending out my trades to them!

N - So we break the PDL again, but its all just congestion and we come to rest here and turn back up. So now I can connect the lows of B and N, and clone this line to the top .

P - We don't quite make it this high, to where the profit target would be based on that cloned line, but jesus, there are 15 points in that move up and there is no way for me to take advantage. I'm still too shocked from my earlier trade, and the down move looks too strong to consider going long, until it of course breaks out around 3951 and is at 3961 in 3 minutes.

Q - Well we turn back down, and once again, when we break below 57 it speeds up. This short isn't a revenge trade, I just want a tiny piece of this down move that I thought still had more to go. Thank goodness I took just a point profit as price went back up. This trade of course isn't the smartest, and if I'm gonna do this anyway, it has to happen much closer to the breakout, not over 5 points below!

SUMMARY

Well that's it. Of course now that I look on my hourly, I can see the SL along the top which I already had drawn in got rejected, and although I don't know how to trade an hourly chart (not that I know how to trade a 1 or 5 minute chart mind you.. LOL), by taking this longer time frame, I could probably make decisions based on what price is doing and not based on how KP is feeling.

I see on the 5 minute that this day is turning into one big hinge, and I just missed a trade that bounces off just above R, but I think I better not trade any more today.

So I finish at -$65.

 

[k p]

So as we keep dropping, I can see that based on my hourly, we might very well test 27, the previous swing low a few days ago. I had this in the back of my head when I tried my first short before the open. I thought let me just get into a short and if I'm still good at the open, I will just hold it to see how low it can go. Sadly I was stopped out, and there were lots of reasons to take longs and shorts, but on this hourly chart, most that that is just noise and the bounce at the SL of roughly 64 would have been a great place to enter a short.

 

[k p]

So I'm a little frustrated with today because when I look back at it now, there are such obvious areas to take advantage of.

A - We have this range here and also a double top (these are hard to spot in real time I guess until price is really gone though).

B - So we drop out the bottom of the range. We are in a clear up move, so shorting is perhaps risky, but once the lows of the range are taken out, it was a 15 point move down.

C - This SL can now be drawn with the swing points at A and C.

D - Notice how when we get here, we have a bounce, perfect place to short below.

E - Here, same thing. I can short again, or just hold my short since the line never broke.

F - Swing low here, lets connect with G.

G - So now we also see a hinge forming, and it looks beautiful on the 5 min chart as well.

H - Here we have a break, and look at how solid it looks given how it started from the midpoint of the hinge. It has hard to get into this move.

I - Here is our first RET, it didn't even make it up to the breakout level. If I short below here, ouch, gotta hold through a climb up to J, almost 4 points.

J - Here we so that our previous high at "I" wasn't penetrated, so lets go short again, or just hold it. It ended up being good for at least 5 points.

K - What about this area here tells me the move down is done? It turns around at 30, almost 27 like I outlined before.

L - Here is a simple RET to go long, but I'm scared of any old RET.

M - Range here, once again, drops out the bottom, and when it does, good for almost 5 points. Shorting in an uptrend could be dangerous.

N - Lower high... could take some shorts next time price comes up again for a scalp back down to the bottom line.

P - When we break out, its solid!

Q - Bounce off the OH, and also the swing high right after the open. A shot below here is good for a few points.

Sigh... it seems so easy now.

 

[Aj2014]

So I'm a little frustrated with today because when I look back at it now, there are such obvious areas to take advantage of.

Sigh... it seems so easy now.

It's always obvious and easy after the event, unfortunately. Or at least it seems that way when you look at a chart through the filter of knowing how the moves played out.

 

[k p]

So here is one more trade.

S - Seeing price reject the OH again, I felt to try for a short, just below the bar that went up and came down. It fills on the next bar.

T - I had this low as the area I was looking to test again as a target.

But alas, you can see my exit here for 2 ticks... so $6 profit.

With an entry of 64, I could have had a stop of 67, just above those highs. This is only 3 points.

The target level down to T at roughly 58 (lets round up to 59), is 5 points.

And sure enough.. it got there. I sat through the worst part of price going against me a whole 1.25 ticks, but I just couldn't hold on. It would mean that I had to hold on for 10 minutes, and when price bursts up to "W" before profit is reached, I might have been scared again. But this trade works if I just left it alone.

 

[Roffe]

So I'm a little frustrated with today because when I look back at it now, there are such obvious areas to take advantage of.

Also note the failed breakout of the morning hinge, and how the mean is then tested from both below and above before continuing.

 

[k p]

Also note the failed breakout of the morning hinge, and how the mean is then tested from both below and above before continuing.

Thanks for the chart! It is a thing of beauty, and I love this "macro" view. But when it comes to trying to get in and enter some trades to take advantage of it, the entries are all wrong and there is too much doubt. I'd like to take advantage of the "forest", but I'm getting lost in the "trees". (ie. trying to trade the macro view, but getting all messed up with minor movements and price going against me in the slightest)

 

[Ghost_of_Blotto]

You should abandon your fantasies of successful trading. You have neither the intelligence or the temperament.

Those egging you on are doing so for their own selfish reasons and care not a jot for you as a person. They need the attention and you are fungible to them. Any starry eyed newbie will do.

You shouldn't place any value on their encouragement when they have no skin in the game. Go and find something you can excel at instead.

No need to take this personally - there are only so many people who are 7 feet tall and only so many people who can be successful traders. You will experience freedom in letting it go.

 

[k p]

So here is the updated hourly chart for today. Sure enough, the swing low at 27 held with price turning around at 30. And would you believe it, we had the biggest of rallies, and it sure does seem like price stopped a hair below that SL that was already on my chart from over a week ago. (perhaps this line should have been fanned up a little given the slight poke that price made above this SL 2 days ago) This hurts to not have been able to take advantage of this.

 

[Ghost_of_Blotto]

This hurts to not have been able to take advantage of this.

Let it go. It isn't real. There was never a way for you to take advantage of it. You've chosen an incorrect belief and are now judging yourself harshly based on it. Please let this subject go and invest your effort in a field which is not going to cause you psychological damage (as trading almost certainly will, to you).