Trading NQ via Price Action

k p said:
I totally agree. When the overnight is a nice and tight range, the first RET after we break above or below is a solid trade. When we trend overnight, it takes a while to work through all the trades until a solid direction is picked, or worse, it just goes back and forth for hours.
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If you trust that data, perhaps start running with it and ignore everything else.
 
k p said:
Well, I'm done. The week started off ok, but honestly, seeing the big moves and getting none of it really plagued me. Then I got caught up in following all the stuff that emini was posting and I got sucked into the lower time frame point of view again. (nothing wrong with what he is doing, it just doesn't fit me at all) My version of reading behavior is trading by my emotions and every push and pull of a lower time frame chart gave me anxiety and made my emotions put on trades.

The week started ok, but lets face it, my profits were just being lucky and then too scared to get in on the major moves. By Wed Dec 17, I was lucky to just finish a bit down, and then the week finished off horribly.

I always knew that holding through losers would end up costing me one day and that day finally came. The thing with exits is that usually they are always at the worst place for me, right before price finally comes back to me. Not that the trade ends up working out, but that my exit could be much closer to BE, because once again, my exit either hits the 5 points stop loss, or is based on watching price surge up, and hence an emotional exit.

The news release trading on Wed made me focus so much on the 5 sec chart, the lowest time frame I can load up on IB, and this is what started my downfall this week. Its funny how I can pinpoint just two actions that started the cascade down, but its certainly misguided fundamentals, so I'm not saying its just a little tweak that would have made all the difference.

I have been mad at missing so many of these great moves. Some I couldn't help because they happen over night and I'm sleeping. Others would take a couple of hours to develop and by then I'm either not watching anymore or already at work. Today especially I kept holding that short because I had trouble exiting at first, but also to prove to everyone else out there that SIM is tricky because you just don't get the fills you think you might. How crazy is that? I suffered over a $400 loss on one trade just to try and prove something to everyone else out there. I also kept holding the short because I'm mad at the economy once again. This huge rally seems so stupid to me, but of course I should just be watching price and trading accordingly, regardless of it going up or down.

I'm also mad that I won't have a good update to tell my sister over the holidays when I fly home because she thinks this whole trading business is not possible, and I so wanted a good update, and there are also stresses with the girlfriend. I just want to be single while I struggle through this. So as you can see, so much going on in my head.

MOVING FORWARD

So honestly, I think I'm gonna go cry now. Its not about the money though. I'm down over $800 in the past couple of days now I guess, but only about $400 since I started two weeks ago just doing my weekly updates. What hurts the most is not doing anything right. Trades that worked I was out of so soon, losers I kept holding onto, and I spent so much time being mad at all this opportunity passing me by.

I'm by no means giving up, and after I have my emotional release and let it all go, I'm gonna work on fixing the problems. I will go over these past two weeks over the weekend and see what would have happened if I just followed the static bars without letting how they form influence me. Watching price actually move is not good for me, but watching how far it goes (the high and low) and what it does on the next bar I think I can deal with. The more I actually focused on price movement the more panicked and emotional it made me. If I could just focus on the highs and lows of the bars, and then run a so called script in my head (if this, then do this, etc...), then I think I might be much better at this. I really do see so much opportunity on the chart, but there is a huge disconnect with how this all unfolds in real time.

I can't say when I will update next because frankly, this journal is now causing me too much stress. The idea is to have a couple of good weeks and get my shit together and then get back to posting.
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Well hang in there kp we've all been through this or are going through this so don't get discouraged. I just told RN last week how it's amazing how even when we screw up if you can get yourself to follow the rules you can usually make back what you lost and then some so stay positive the market will always be here
 
KP, one quick question for you...what is your trading EDGE?

If you can't define your edge, then you've got no chance at success.

Take some time off and conduct a ton of research. Develop a real edge, and then start trading again.
 
Roffe said:
If you trust that data, perhaps start running with it and ignore everything else.
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Hi Roffe.. great to see you here! Of course your advise is solid. If only it was so simple for me to be patient then I think I could do just this, but this week, I demonstrated a lack of a patience and discipline with following rules.

My moment of it all really falling apart for me was when I had 2 chances to exit that last trade at BE and didn't when my stop didn't get filled and just watched price go up. Worse, when I saw price exit the hinge and form a RET for a long, that was the place to SAR and the profit from that trade would have covered the loss up to that point. But alas, I just watched, hoping really.

You bring up an interesting point about trusting the data. Its true that I haven't done nearly enough backtesting to fully trust exits, but once again, given that hinge, since the RET happened above all the previous action, this I know is a golden opportunity.

The other intersting thing you bring up is ignoring everything else and this is what I will be focusing on moving forward. The behavior of the moving ticks gives me anxiety, and since all the backtesting only shows static charts, what I will be trusting is those bars once they are formed. I do believe this is still trading behavior because what I can see is repeated attempts to cross a level or failure thereof, and if anything, giving the lower time frame chart (5min to 1 hour) more precedence will I think also improve things.

Because it look so easy at the end of the day, the chart has everything on it that I need, and so although watching the actual trades might get a trader into the best trade at just the right time, this isn't something I should dabble in right now whatsoever. My problems are not that I don't know what to do, its that I don't do it when I should. (partly also that I'm not around when the best opportunity presents itself, but there isn't much I can do about that right now)
 
slugar said:
Well hang in there kp we've all been through this or are going through this so don't get discouraged. I just told RN last week how it's amazing how even when we screw up if you can get yourself to follow the rules you can usually make back what you lost and then some so stay positive the market will always be here
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Thanks slugar. I am totally back up on that horse. Thursday and Friday were just stupid, just me being stupid and lacking discipline. I can accept the loss as the result of lacking this discipline. I do read the journals secretly, not for trading advice anymore since I simply cannot read any more on technique and I don't care what everyone else sees on the charts, but what I really like in jas's journal is how RN says to screw the P&L because all he is interested in is if he trader well and according to his rules.

So for me, this is where the biggest disappointment is. I don't think there would be any way for me to have lost so much if I just followed rules and hence my loss just has to be accepted for falling off the wagon. Its a great lesson, and given that its only on one contract, this amount of money is both easy to get back once multiple contracts are traded, and its also a great lesson to learn with only trading one contract. Had I had more luck initially before having to learn these rules the hard one, the loss might have been much more damaging if I had to learn it further down the road.
 
ScottColeFTA said:
KP, one quick question for you...what is your trading EDGE?

If you can't define your edge, then you've got no chance at success.

Take some time off and conduct a ton of research. Develop a real edge, and then start trading again.
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Hi Scott... Hmmm... not exactly sure how to define what my edge is. I can tell you that I am trading based on how DbPhoenix teaches with his SLA threads. Its essentially a trend following system, but the other key component is how to take advantage of a mean reverting instrument. Its all about figuring out where price has been, where the likely next area for it to go is, and waiting to see which way traders decide to go and then get on board.

At the end of the day, the hindsight chart I am able to analyze quite well and can point to where the entries should be based on what I look for. But in the moment, I have issues of either believing this, or not taking trades based on a previous failed trade, or pushing things because of some other factor. Exits are based on being down too much money, when they should be based on what the market is telling me. So although I have a good enough grasp of what to do technically, the execution is the weakest link. Hence the trader here is the weakest link.. shocking eh? ;)
 
The trader is the weakest link because he does not have complete confidence in what he is doing. This is often the case when a trader is learning a strategy that is not their own, no matter who's strategy it is. What you need to do is somehow make that strategy your OWN so that you can trust it enough to simply execute the trades when they need to be executed. The only way to make it your own is to add your own flair to it AND find a way to to really put it to the test before you risk your money.
 
ScottColeFTA said:
The trader is the weakest link because he does not have complete confidence in what he is doing. This is often the case when a trader is learning a strategy that is not their own, no matter who's strategy it is. What you need to do is somehow make that strategy your OWN so that you can trust it enough to simply execute the trades when they need to be executed. The only way to make it your own is to add your own flair to it AND find a way to to really put it to the test before you risk your money.
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I completely agree and I have blocked this out for the most part. There are certain trades that I know I shouldn't take based on SLA (although there is this built in rule to stop trading once you've been stopped out twice because you need price to go to some other level... ie. to clear the range) I am also taking a trade that might not be according to SLA which would be a REV off an important level (ie. not waiting for the RET).

But in essence, I could see that all last week my profits were negligible because I wasn't following what I should be doing, and this week I took trades not according to the rules, and this really killed me.

It is true that my rules aren't 100% firm, nor do I think they should be because there is a certain amount of thought involved when trying to figure out what traders want and context might often override some necessary action. But in my case at least, the terrible result is not even following the basics of the plan. Hardly any of the entries are based on RETs as they should be, and exits as well were either not made when they should be, or too early thereby missing out on profits. So although the trading plan isn't as established as it should be to trade size, the results would be much more favorable if a certain amount of discipline could be exercised.
 
k p, I'm sure it will work for you, because you can already see the correct trades.
Are you collecting the data for all the trades in excel or elsewhere?

I am putting all the figures that I can think of into excel, as recommended by NoDoji and others, so that I can determine what will work for me. Having looked at over 250 trades so far, I can definitely say that I need to wait for the correct trades, and I need to get out early from the ones that don't work.
Both things go against my natural urges, but I'm trying hard.

For example, I had a disaster on Friday, because I wanted to make a few quick trades, and then meet a friend for a coffee. The market didn't understand my needs, and I was caught in the same price action after the open that got you. However, that retracement after the hinge met my plan's criteria, so I had to take it, even though I knew that it was going to reverse back, stop me out and form a range. Yet again the market paid no attention to my superior knowledge, and it continued upwards to cover my losses.

So, what I will ask for Christmas is the patience to wait for the correct trades, and the good sense to take them when they arrive. The counting of ticks and points on the backtesting charts is essential for me to get there though. Hopefully you will stay with, us and we will both be trading well in the new year.
 
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