Trading is NOT a business

Quote from TFtrader:

It is amazing how many people fall into this trap of trading month after month. I have been back testing and forward testing numerous different trading systems and strategies for more than two years. My focus however was on index futures and currency futures. Spending more than 6,000 hours with analysis for this venture, I did not find anything that would nearly be reasonable to call a somewhat viable solution.

Her are just a few systems and indicators of my testing including any possible combination of them:
- MACD
- Stochastics (fast and slow)
- CCI
- Woodies CCI (incl. Woodies trading patterns)
- Moving Averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, TMA, HMA)
- Opening Range Breakout
- 1-2-3 Reversal patterns
- Trader Vic's 2B method
- different price action patterns with and without any indicator
- classic trendline/trendline breaks
- etc., etc.
None of the systems actually generated more profits than losses over time, even by reversing buy and sell orders against the signal/pattern. I have become suspicious that this is nothing but a monkey business, because trading systems strangely seem to be profitable only when paper/simulated trading instead of actual money.

Finally, I have come to the conclusion that one cannot generate any profits by trading. This is an expensive and very time consuming hobby which comes with a daily agony. I do admire the industry and its marketing machinery, as it continues to lure people into this fruitless business for a sheer endless money supply.

Greetings,
TF Trader
More...

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Absolutely correct at ET. :)

The safest way to double your money is to fold it and put it in your pocket.

-----------------------------

The american way of life (= problem) is a fckin disease .... do what I did; escape from America before 40 with a well calculated life expectancy and mullah to see you thru' - then laugh at these Salvation Army prospects back home now enveloped in 22% real unemployment., likely to head to 38% :) :) :)

And when you hear how they're all trading nicely, just picture the circular motion with your right hand ... :)

next post drops the hammer

:)
 
An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Greek village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna.

The American complimented the Greek on the quality of his fish and asked, "How long does it take to catch them?" The Greek replied: "Only a little while."

The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Greek said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs. The American then asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"

The Greek fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play cards with my friends, I have a full and busy life."

The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats.

Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution.

You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Athens, then London and eventually New York where you will run your expanding enterprise."

The Greek fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?" To which the American replied, "15-25 years."

"But what then?" The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions."

"Millions ... Then what?" The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play cards with your friends."
 
Three market makers and three investors were going for a trip by train. Before the journey, the investors bought 3 tickets but the market makers only bought one.

The investors were glad that the stupid market makers were going to pay a fine. However, when the conductor was approaching their compartment, all three market makers went to the toilet.

The conductor, noticing that somebody was in the toilet, knocked on the door. In reply he saw a hand with one ticket. He checked it and the market makers saved 2/3 of the ticket price.

The next day, the investors decided to use the same strategy - they bought only one ticket. The market makers did not buy any tickets at all!

When the investors saw the conductor, they went straight for the toilet, and when they heard the knocking they handed in their one ticket. They did not get it back. The market makers took it and went to the other toilet!
 
Quote from DHOHHI:

1. There are more approaches to trading that TA based.
2. One has to refine their trading methodology over time as the market changes.
3. One can make $$$ trading on a consistent basis. I've been doing so for almost 15 years.
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Great!
 
"Millions ... Then what?" The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play cards with your friends."
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Lol, that is brilliant! But money IS important and makes you happy, up to a point. Once you reach that certain threshold, having more money won't make you happy.
 
Quote from TFtrader:

It is amazing how many people fall into this trap of trading month after month. I have been back testing and forward testing numerous different trading systems and strategies for more than two years. My focus however was on index futures and currency futures. Spending more than 6,000 hours with analysis for this venture, I did not find anything that would nearly be reasonable to call a somewhat viable solution.

Her are just a few systems and indicators of my testing including any possible combination of them:
- MACD
- Stochastics (fast and slow)
- CCI
- Woodies CCI (incl. Woodies trading patterns)
- Moving Averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, TMA, HMA)
- Opening Range Breakout
- 1-2-3 Reversal patterns
- Trader Vic's 2B method
- different price action patterns with and without any indicator
- classic trendline/trendline breaks
- etc., etc.
None of the systems actually generated more profits than losses over time, even by reversing buy and sell orders against the signal/pattern. I have become suspicious that this is nothing but a monkey business, because trading systems strangely seem to be profitable only when paper/simulated trading instead of actual money.

Finally, I have come to the conclusion that one cannot generate any profits by trading. This is an expensive and very time consuming hobby which comes with a daily agony. I do admire the industry and its marketing machinery, as it continues to lure people into this fruitless business for a sheer endless money supply.

Greetings,
TF Trader
More...

AND, on top of the all the other great posts to your thread, did you realize that every indicator you have up there measure the same thing?

Trends accelerate, and decelerate. During this process there are certain telltale signs of this behavior. It is built into volume and into volatility.

Use indicators and research this, it will get on the right track.
 
Market is just 1 big poker table.

Quote from TGpop:

bullsh!t

i've been at it for 23months and am making consistent profits....

maybe you just suck? not all people can trade
More...
 
are you saying goldman sachs prop trading division trading their own account which is reported to be 20% of their earnings is not a business?

these HFT programs systems is just to generate fees for the broker fees, exchangefees, SEC fees, ECN fees, software fees, desk fees,education fees, training fees etc..if you are paying 'retail commissions'. and to generate volume.

as for futures and currencies, those are two of the toughest markets to make money. and is mostly zero sum game. + slippage. the daily action is a game of musical chairs or black jack game most of the time. the exchange can shorten the trading week to 3 days 5 hours a day. since volume is so low..24/7 trading that is advertised on currency market is as sham.

a game of black jack where the dealer(market maker) sees everybody hands..house(dealer) can't lose like that. more players more profit for the dealer.

Quote from TFtrader:

It is amazing how many people fall into this trap of trading month after month. I have been back testing and forward testing numerous different trading systems and strategies for more than two years. My focus however was on index futures and currency futures. Spending more than 6,000 hours with analysis for this venture, I did not find anything that would nearly be reasonable to call a somewhat viable solution.

Her are just a few systems and indicators of my testing including any possible combination of them:
- MACD
- Stochastics (fast and slow)
- CCI
- Woodies CCI (incl. Woodies trading patterns)
- Moving Averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, TMA, HMA)
- Opening Range Breakout
- 1-2-3 Reversal patterns
- Trader Vic's 2B method
- different price action patterns with and without any indicator
- classic trendline/trendline breaks
- etc., etc.
None of the systems actually generated more profits than losses over time, even by reversing buy and sell orders against the signal/pattern. I have become suspicious that this is nothing but a monkey business, because trading systems strangely seem to be profitable only when paper/simulated trading instead of actual money.

Finally, I have come to the conclusion that one cannot generate any profits by trading. This is an expensive and very time consuming hobby which comes with a daily agony. I do admire the industry and its marketing machinery, as it continues to lure people into this fruitless business for a sheer endless money supply.

Greetings,
TF Trader
More...
 
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