Trading is NOT a business

Quote from TFtrader:

It is amazing how many people fall into this trap of trading month after month. I have been back testing and forward testing numerous different trading systems and strategies for more than two years. My focus however was on index futures and currency futures. Spending more than 6,000 hours with analysis for this venture, I did not find anything that would nearly be reasonable to call a somewhat viable solution.
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You definitively wasted you time because there is no way to get anything valuable that way except by pure luck.

All the work you did in 6,000 hours could be done by a computer in maybe a week, even less. How do you expect to compete with people who use data mining and genetic programming? It is like you try to compete in a car race with a horse.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2905767#post2905767
 
Quote from TFtrader:

It is amazing how many people fall into this trap of trading month after month. I have been back testing and forward testing numerous different trading systems and strategies for more than two years. My focus however was on index futures and currency futures. Spending more than 6,000 hours with analysis for this venture, I did not find anything that would nearly be reasonable to call a somewhat viable solution.

Her are just a few systems and indicators of my testing including any possible combination of them:
- MACD
- Stochastics (fast and slow)
- CCI
- Woodies CCI (incl. Woodies trading patterns)
- Moving Averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, TMA, HMA)
- Opening Range Breakout
- 1-2-3 Reversal patterns
- Trader Vic's 2B method
- different price action patterns with and without any indicator
- classic trendline/trendline breaks
- etc., etc.
None of the systems actually generated more profits than losses over time, even by reversing buy and sell orders against the signal/pattern. I have become suspicious that this is nothing but a monkey business, because trading systems strangely seem to be profitable only when paper/simulated trading instead of actual money.

Finally, I have come to the conclusion that one cannot generate any profits by trading. This is an expensive and very time consuming hobby which comes with a daily agony. I do admire the industry and its marketing machinery, as it continues to lure people into this fruitless business for a sheer endless money supply.

Greetings,
TF Trader
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Everything you mentioned is probably overtraded right now. Need to find something completely new or underused. Consider finding a profitable strategy as a PHD thesis. To get a Phd, you need to find something original for the most part.
 
Not having to worry about money is priceless. Too little money and you worry about not making enough of it. Too much and you worry about protecting it.
 
It is a business I do this full time and have been for 3yrs. Here's what you need to do to be profitable. But remember we are gamblers so its all about odds.

1/ Get some technical training. Indicators are a waste of time. We do use some basic ones SMA's, Volume, Pivot points (support/resistance). Stocks move and its all about price so just learn how to read charts based on price. Little else is needed.

2/ Have a trading plan. When you traded, what you trade, money management, strategies e.t.c

3/ Start trading with a simulated account. Each months review your trades against your plan. Adjust plan. When you are consistently profitable for 3mth. Try trading $100 risk units. Repeat process.

After 2-3years you should be trading $300-$500 risk units and consistently making avg 10 Risk units per week. This is trading as a business.

Hours: I trade stocks and gappers usually earnings/guidance related. I prepare 30min pre/post mkt and trade the first 90min.

TradingWings.com these guys are cheap and their room is for independent traders most of who are consistently profitable. Do a free trial. Once you can read charts you can trade anything. Stay away from Prop programs most are scams

:)
 
The only people to make money everyday are liars, been trading off and on for 15 years, most good some bad, nothing fancy a 300-400 day most of the time, not all the time, pro-status no, sort of a joker who is profitable what ever that means, but it is a business to those who trade more often then not and adjustments need to be made often, not the same crap TA every single day, the TA needs to be varied along with expectations.
 
So the OP tested some standard TA ideas and concluded it doesn't work. Well, I disagree. It's normal that only about 4-5% of ideas have some real merit and of those just 2% can be applied to real trading. The people who say TA does not work are those who never have found the 2%. 2 years of research is not much time and it sounds as you were testing the most basic concepts, you need to be creative.
 
only a moron would keep backtesting the same simplistic indicators with a simplistic mindset... and hoping for a different result.
 
thats why we have so many PhDs sitting in trading seats? LOL

I never considered a PhD after graduation from a quantitative master program for the sole reason that it would not add any edge whatsoever other than hanging around for another couple years in ivory towers rather than learning from and working with the brightest on the street. Original ideas come from bright minds, from people who want to be different from the crowd, not from any academic titles and especially not from professors who sell such titles.

Quote from endsongs:

Everything you mentioned is probably overtraded right now. Need to find something completely new or underused. Consider finding a profitable strategy as a PHD thesis. To get a Phd, you need to find something original for the most part.
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Quote from asiaprop:

thats why we have so many PhDs sitting in trading seats? LOL

I never considered a PhD after graduation from a quantitative master program for the sole reason that it would not add any edge whatsoever other than hanging around for another couple years in ivory towers rather than learning from and working with the brightest on the street. Original ideas come from bright minds, from people who want to be different from the crowd, not from any academic titles and especially not from professors who sell such titles.
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totally false and almost moronic. master quants are a dime a dozen now. PhD finance are still in high demand and pay a strong starting salary--- much higher than a masters. get real!
 
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