@dozu888 said yes.
We dumb amateurs are small minnows but when combined we become a school, huge fish meals for them pro boys. We are liquidity providers.
Trading is easy
- Thread starter dozu888
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@dozu888 said yes.
We dumb amateurs are small minnows but when combined we become a school, huge fish meals for them pro boys. We are liquidity providers.
that's a fairly accurate description.
the participants structure is like a pyramid, with very few at the top making the money.
in terms of the ability to influence the market though, the pyramid is reversed, them at the top control the media so even if the aggregate buying power is not the biggest, they can still manipulate the market easily, that's because -
the dumb crowd at the lower portion of the pyramid, even though collectively they have a large sum - mutual funds and all, but they are like a herd of sheep, easily manipulated and slaughtered.
the AAII survey just came out, both bull and bear % are quite high at 40%, this shows the effect of the shake
- lots of people bottom fished; among these people some are long termers, but of course there are speculators who are in for a quick buck, so these people again have to be cleaned out, hence the many 'retests' of these shakes.... people like to use 'retest'... but that's a non-sensical term... the real reason is to clean out the lucky bastards who caught the bottom... if you never let these people see draw downs, some of them will get to heaven by luck, and the smart money won't allow that to happen.
- the high bearish % of course, are the ones got cleaned out... they sold out so them bearish.... can't stand to see the market goes back up after they get cleaned out.
everything is explainable, logically.... everything happens for a reason.
- lots of people bottom fished; among these people some are long termers, but of course there are speculators who are in for a quick buck, so these people again have to be cleaned out, hence the many 'retests' of these shakes.... people like to use 'retest'... but that's a non-sensical term... the real reason is to clean out the lucky bastards who caught the bottom... if you never let these people see draw downs, some of them will get to heaven by luck, and the smart money won't allow that to happen.
- the high bearish % of course, are the ones got cleaned out... they sold out so them bearish.... can't stand to see the market goes back up after they get cleaned out.
everything is explainable, logically.... everything happens for a reason.
compare 3/5-3/6 to 2/27-2/28, very similar.
- similarly significant amount of shorts so they don't want to hold over the weekend;
- but the volume is already much smaller, because the 2/27 down was to wash away the long speculators of the past several months, the number is much bigger. the 3/5 down mostly is washing away the lucky bottom fishers from 2/28.... so these are mostly gone, as they don't want a 'winning trade turn into a loser' lol.
- so next week should be fairly smooth rally because usually after the 2 rounds of wash there are only limited number of speculators left.... the chips are now mostly in the smart money's hands.
- then once we get back to 220 ish them boys will again knock down a bit but...
- as the days move on more and more people will realize it's a nothing burger, China will be even closer to full recovery (in terms of people going back to work and normal business)
- cases outside of China may flatten, or not, either way it's no big deal compared to a regular flue.
- again timing wise a couple of weeks more shakes but the intensity will wane as you can only sell a bogus story for so long.
- then April comes around it will be full mode for the earning run.
- similarly significant amount of shorts so they don't want to hold over the weekend;
- but the volume is already much smaller, because the 2/27 down was to wash away the long speculators of the past several months, the number is much bigger. the 3/5 down mostly is washing away the lucky bottom fishers from 2/28.... so these are mostly gone, as they don't want a 'winning trade turn into a loser' lol.
- so next week should be fairly smooth rally because usually after the 2 rounds of wash there are only limited number of speculators left.... the chips are now mostly in the smart money's hands.
- then once we get back to 220 ish them boys will again knock down a bit but...
- as the days move on more and more people will realize it's a nothing burger, China will be even closer to full recovery (in terms of people going back to work and normal business)
- cases outside of China may flatten, or not, either way it's no big deal compared to a regular flue.
- again timing wise a couple of weeks more shakes but the intensity will wane as you can only sell a bogus story for so long.
- then April comes around it will be full mode for the earning run.
it is for some people! Nice P/L curve (not mine!)
Dozu, I like this thread you started. Keep give daily analysis, if possible. I want to compare yours to mine to see if there's something I am missing.
When combining this trading methodology, TA, statistics and position sizing, it's very effective.
Dozu, on the one hand I love how bullish you are, it's hilarious.
But, it's starting to get real bro. Headline risk is coming fast and furious now.....
Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people [1]
Frustration mounts over virus-stalled ship in California [2]
New York coronavirus cases jump to 76; Gov. Cuomo declares emergency [3]
Here’s how you’re transported between hospitals if you’re a Nebraska coronavirus patient [4]
People are gonna see this shit and freak the fuck out. There are going to be serious consequences in and outside of equity markets.
Debt markets are not immune to a collapse in consumption in the EU, Asia, and US. Serious shit is likely to go down. Something like a global financial crisis 2.0 could very well happen.
Can you say VOLATILITY?
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east - 51787238
[2] https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...nd-princess-cruise-passengers-off-california/
[3] https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/n...cuomo-declares-state-of-emergency-80233029782
[4] https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/heres...tals-if-youre-a-nebraska-coronavirus-patient/
How do you think we got here from the high in a week? This card was played a few many times already. Nobody knows the actual effect on the economy at this point.
123 is spot on... I have already said many times
- virus is the same virus on 1/24 and 1/27, why was the price action different.
- every time when the vix spikes to 50+, when did it ever NOT feel like the world is gonna end? you know why, because them boys control the media and they pound your fragile nerves to think that way and give up the shares.... last couple of times was 2015 China slow down them boys saying China aint gonna grow anymore and world economic engine gonna die... 2018 was inflation gonna spike and asset price gonna collapse.... then what.... how many f'cking dips does it take for people to learn how me boys operate?
- quoting all them public news sources are useless, this fits exactly to the above point... them boys pounding your nerves right now!
- you see this ET thread someone just created a poll 3200 v 2700 something, you see how the dumb money all got pounded into one side of the boat?
- a true master, is at the time like this, the one who can think independently, and see thru all the dust and fog... I am telling you them boys collecting chips right now, by the time April comes around and them doing the earning run, the story's gonna be 'earnings ain't got hurt as bad as expected' blah blah, then the sheep will buy in again on greed, them boys unload all this inventory collected during this shake, for them it's a true 'sell in May and go away' because them boys will be enjoying them free bitches on a remote island, courtesy of all the money the sheep donated.... it's the same shit every time.
- I am from China and know MORE than most people here about corona. when the epicenter - Wuhan got shut down, 2m of its 5m residents actually fled the city and went all over China, but look at death toll, Wuhan still has about 90% of all the dead... now you take an extrapolation, Italy Korea whatever, are just an extension of China x/Wuhan.
- and why is the A shares Shanghai index not a leading indicator of the SPY in this case?
A vision with clear thinking is what makes money... I asked the question 'are we gonna run out of shares' in 2016, that vision made me into the infamous 1%....
if you keep getting swayed by me boys controlled media, you will forever be part of the sheep herd, getting pushed from 1 corner to the other and finally off the cliff.
but like I said... having a clear thinking requires minimum 120 IQ< which is a high requirement for most people as 120 is already way beyond 1 standard deviation.... if people don't have this ability they should stop trading and just buy QQQ blind and hold forever
WE ARE STILL RUNNING OUT OF SHARES.. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
HAPPY SUNDAY.
@Sweet Bobby's return?
it is for some people! Nice P/L curve (not mine!)