Trading is easy

[ironchef]

Dozu, on the one hand I love how bullish you are, it's hilarious.

But, it's starting to get real bro. Headline risk is coming fast and furious now.....

Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people [1]
Frustration mounts over virus-stalled ship in California [2]
New York coronavirus cases jump to 76; Gov. Cuomo declares emergency [3]

Here’s how you’re transported between hospitals if you’re a Nebraska coronavirus patient [4]
View attachment 221454

People are gonna see this shit and freak the fuck out. There are going to be serious consequences in and outside of equity markets.

Debt markets are not immune to a collapse in consumption in the EU, Asia, and US. Serious shit is likely to go down. Something like a global financial crisis 2.0 could very well happen.

Can you say VOLATILITY?

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east - 51787238
[2] https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...nd-princess-cruise-passengers-off-california/
[3] https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/n...cuomo-declares-state-of-emergency-80233029782
[4] https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/heres...tals-if-youre-a-nebraska-coronavirus-patient/

All you need is for remdesivir's (or maybe other drugs') clinical trials to show efficacy later this month and the fear factor will be gone. The manufacturer is already ramping up production to meet "anticipated" demand even though it is not yet proven.

Once fear is gone, everything will return to normal very quickly since there is no structural impediments to the world economy.

 

[KCalhoun]

Big picture the market will crash like I said it would a month ago. But not without dead cat bounces along the way.

We may get one Monday, so I went mostly cash Friday, still holding very small size UVXY VXX SQQQ. I'll rebuy those and TVIX aggressively next week on any day the S&P loses prior day's support.

Plus long DWT if crude continues down, or UWT GUSH if it bounces.

Doing hybrid day & swing trading... start small position as day trade, scale up and turn into swing trade if price action closes near hod.

 

[ironchef]

but like I said... having a clear thinking requires minimum 120 IQ< which is a high requirement for most people as 120 is already way beyond 1 standard deviation.... if people don't have this ability they should stop trading and just buy QQQ blind and hold forever

I tested mine in HS. Only ~100. I am doomed.

 

[joederp]

123 is spot on... I have already said many times

- virus is the same virus on 1/24 and 1/27, why was the price action different.
- every time when the vix spikes to 50+, when did it ever NOT feel like the world is gonna end? you know why, because them boys control the media and they pound your fragile nerves to think that way and give up the shares.... last couple of times was 2015 China slow down them boys saying China aint gonna grow anymore and world economic engine gonna die... 2018 was inflation gonna spike and asset price gonna collapse.... then what.... how many f'cking dips does it take for people to learn how me boys operate?
- quoting all them public news sources are useless, this fits exactly to the above point... them boys pounding your nerves right now!
- you see this ET thread someone just created a poll 3200 v 2700 something, you see how the dumb money all got pounded into one side of the boat?
- a true master, is at the time like this, the one who can think independently, and see thru all the dust and fog... I am telling you them boys collecting chips right now, by the time April comes around and them doing the earning run, the story's gonna be 'earnings ain't got hurt as bad as expected' blah blah, then the sheep will buy in again on greed, them boys unload all this inventory collected during this shake, for them it's a true 'sell in May and go away' because them boys will be enjoying them free bitches on a remote island, courtesy of all the money the sheep donated.... it's the same shit every time.
- I am from China and know MORE than most people here about corona. when the epicenter - Wuhan got shut down, 2m of its 5m residents actually fled the city and went all over China, but look at death toll, Wuhan still has about 90% of all the dead... now you take an extrapolation, Italy Korea whatever, are just an extension of China x/Wuhan.
- and why is the A shares Shanghai index not a leading indicator of the SPY in this case?

A vision with clear thinking is what makes money... I asked the question 'are we gonna run out of shares' in 2016, that vision made me into the infamous 1%....

if you keep getting swayed by me boys controlled media, you will forever be part of the sheep herd, getting pushed from 1 corner to the other and finally off the cliff.

but like I said... having a clear thinking requires minimum 120 IQ< which is a high requirement for most people as 120 is already way beyond 1 standard deviation.... if people don't have this ability they should stop trading and just buy QQQ blind and hold forever

WE ARE STILL RUNNING OUT OF SHARES.. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

HAPPY SUNDAY.

perception is near-term reality. You want to hold through the drawdown, great, but stop the condescending bullshit just cause you might be getting smoked. Market is what it is, adapt or else. How do you like a taste of your own machismo medicine BS?

 

[dozu888]

me boys doing really great this time.

what are we talking about here... vix at 60, highest level since the GFC.... for f'cking what -

the same old low oil BS they already used once in early 2016, plus a virus that is just another f'cking flu.... global flu death average 400,000 per year, right now we have what, not even 4000.

them boys doing really good...

and the more they shake with bs, the more you can learn how they operate and why they operate this way... they need inventory!

need inventory for what? it's too obvious!

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

IMO, this is an unhealthy market. Two crashes in as many years that are only revived through a fed pump. This means that even if we are running out of shares, we are running out of people who can afford to buy. This is an economic issue. The market reflects the reality that the USA is a land of two economies and there are less of the 1% than there are of the 99%.

The pumps have been primed again (of course - 112 billion in overnight repo) so expect more of the same but at some point, we have to look in the mirror and realize what's really going on.

 

[Specterx]

IMO, this is an unhealthy market. Two crashes in as many years that are only revived through a fed pump. This means that even if we are running out of shares, we are running out of people who can afford to buy. This is an economic issue. The market reflects the reality that the USA is a land of two economies and there are less of the 1% than there are of the 99%.

The pumps have been primed again (of course - 112 billion in overnight repo) so expect more of the same but at some point, we have to look in the mirror and realize what's really going on.

This article is from 2 months ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/pri...-pile-comes-with-a-new-set-of-challenges.html

There have been plenty more like it over the past months and years - the 99% might be living paycheck to paycheck (albeit those paychecks are at least growing), but everyone with real money is sitting on enormous mountains of cash that they have no idea what to do with.

And now the great COVID-oil panic of 2020 has, in under three weeks, taken away the last scraps of risk-free yield that could be had in the Treasury market.

In the short term there might be more selling to come, but once the COVID stuff passes (which will happen in 6-8 weeks if not before - it's already mostly blown over in China and is peaking out in Korea) you'll be left with economic data and earnings figures that have snapped right back to pre-panic levels but with the Fed having implemented ZIRP and probably restarted QE.

Looking out over the next 2-3 years the stage is certainly set for a massive blow-off run in equities, even more powerful than what was setting up in late 2019.

 

[ironchef]

me boys doing really great this time.

what are we talking about here... vix at 60, highest level since the GFC.... for f'cking what -

the same old low oil BS they already used once in early 2016, plus a virus that is just another f'cking flu.... global flu death average 400,000 per year, right now we have what, not even 4000.

them boys doing really good...

and the more they shake with bs, the more you can learn how they operate and why they operate this way... they need inventory!

need inventory for what? it's too obvious!

Can you kindly tell your pro boys not to shake too hard?

 

[dozu888]

IMO, this is an unhealthy market. Two crashes in as many years that are only revived through a fed pump. This means that even if we are running out of shares, we are running out of people who can afford to buy. This is an economic issue. The market reflects the reality that the USA is a land of two economies and there are less of the 1% than there are of the 99%.

The pumps have been primed again (of course - 112 billion in overnight repo) so expect more of the same but at some point, we have to look in the mirror and realize what's really going on.

nothing has changed!

the pump issue is not that straight forward... when euro and jap goes negative we can't stay up there for too long, yeah ironically 1.5% was 'up there' lol.

2 economies - yes and no, yes the gap is increasing but the public participation is still low. the other factor is in the coming years the millennials will over take the boomers as the peak crowd for consumption, once that happens the gap may decrease.

but - I don't view these as crashes. like 2018 the inflation scare was bogus right, them boys needed something to collect chips, just like this time...

I was just gonna post again how great me boys execute these operations. 62 vix with 2 bs stories - I already explained why both the oil and the virus are bogus.

it may not be clear now as the market is in panic mode... but in a few weeks when the earning run is in full swing and them boys turn the media machine 180 degrees around you will see it's the same shit over and over.

I mean look at these candles down here.... these are all f'cking scooping-up candles.... unbelievable how them boys can do it so well with nothing burger virus that has killed 4000 so far, 1% of annual world flu death.

just gap the way f'ck down here.... now the real supply and demand they can't manipulate much... them corporate buy backs and central bank buy-ins, the real demand is not changed, it is still f'cking way high, but why not push the open down, thin time, easy kill!

it's so obvious why don't people see.

 

[dozu888]

This article is from 2 months ago: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/pri...-pile-comes-with-a-new-set-of-challenges.html

There have been plenty more like it over the past months and years - the 99% might be living paycheck to paycheck (albeit those paychecks are at least growing), but everyone with real money is sitting on enormous mountains of cash that they have no idea what to do with.

And now the great COVID-oil panic of 2020 has, in under three weeks, taken away the last scraps of risk-free yield that could be had in the Treasury market.

In the short term there might be more selling to come, but once the COVID stuff passes (which will happen in 6-8 weeks if not before - it's already mostly blown over in China and is peaking out in Korea) you'll be left with economic data and earnings figures that have snapped right back to pre-panic levels but with the Fed having implemented ZIRP and probably restarted QE.

Looking out over the next 2-3 years the stage is certainly set for a massive blow-off run in equities, even more powerful than what was setting up in late 2019.

exactly!

and them chips mi boys collected in this round of big shake will have them laughing all the way to the bank, or that remote island with them free bitches!

for the grace of god, why don't people see thru this.