Trading is easy

ironchef said:
I tried. Hard to do proper backtest buying the dip because one usually peeked at forward prices and adjusted the parameters to fit the outcome, maximizing gains.
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I just defined "the dip" as X% and bought at close if more than X% off ATH. Has to be realistic. You can probably play with this, for example double leverage every 10% down.
 
dozu888 said:
again that's why 'bulls and bears' view is useless.... it's really more like a poker game... when them boys bluff, do you have the skills and the guts to call them bluff.... that's what the game is all about.
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you don't call their bluff, you bet along with them.
 
ironchef said:
I tried. Hard to do proper backtest buying the dip because one usually peeked at forward prices and adjusted the parameters to fit the outcome, maximizing gains.
More...

This guy ran some backtests of DCA vs. dip-buying with perfect information (buying at the exact low). Depending on the time window used, dip-buying with perfect information either underperforms significantly or outperforms modestly (+40 basis points/year from 1970-2019).

Obviously, in real conditions without perfect knowledge and accounting for psych factors, DCA massively outperforms as an investment strategy.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-market-timing-can-be-so-appealing/
 
Specterx said:
This guy ran some backtests of DCA vs. dip-buying with perfect information (buying at the exact low). Depending on the time window used, dip-buying with perfect information either underperforms significantly or outperforms modestly (+40 basis points/year from 1970-2019).

Obviously, in real conditions without perfect knowledge and accounting for psych factors, DCA massively outperforms as an investment strategy.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-market-timing-can-be-so-appealing/
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So, where did @nooby_mcnoob go wrong?
 
the stuff I have posted is all logical... and of course the smart people running the smart money all know this

the 'retaliation rally' is gonna be so strong that them sideline money and even some of those people got shaken out are gonna be so 'mad' that them got fooled by a couple of nothing burgers, the next leg is going straight to the moon.
 
dozu888 said:
the stuff I have posted is all logical... and of course the smart people running the smart money all know this

the 'retaliation rally' is gonna be so strong that them sideline money and even some of those people got shaken out are gonna be so 'mad' that them got fooled by a couple of nothing burgers, the next leg is going straight to the moon.
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NO


Your pro boys are going to fall victim to all the pandemonium that is infecting the markets, like a virus (ironical, isn't it), and drop the markets 50ish percent before they decide to "pick up chips".
 
Watching the press conference now. So far no word on fiscal stimulus details. Just the same old "risk is low, risk is low." If none is forthcoming, kiss the rally goodbye.
 
Overnight said:
Watching the press conference now. So far no word on fiscal stimulus details. Just the same old "risk is low, risk is low." If none is forthcoming, kiss the rally goodbye.
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This was known before the market opened....thought it was why the selloff started early. I think rumors of Trump wanting to make payroll tax deductions permanent is what sent it flying high later in the day.
 
Here4money said:
This was known before the market opened....thought it was why the selloff started early. I think rumors of Trump wanting to make payroll tax deductions permanent is what sent it flying high later in the day.
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And the press conference was a whole lot of nothing. Tomorrow RTH is going to look like the exact opposite of today's. Buh bye rally.
 
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