Trading in Luxury

SPY preview Wk of 4/11/22, 3rd wk and monthly expiry for Apr/22, thu 4/14. Mkt closed fri, Good Friday holiday

Options pricing +/-$7.40 move, +/-1.65%, last fri close 447.57, possible range of 440 to 455 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 440/445 to 450/460 range could hold.
 
SPY preview Wk of 4/18/22, 4th wk expiry for April/2022, fri 4/22.

Options pricing +/-$8.10 move, +/-1.85%, last fri close 437.79, possible range of 429.50 to 446 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 430/435 to 440/450 range could hold.

The month open was 453.31, so we are having a bearish April so far, which is usually a green month.
 
The better choice when selling puts against an uptrend that could change is to wait a day and recheck the stock to see if there are further signals clarifying the next trend.

However for those who want to sell put options despite a possible trend change, check put strikes that are further out of the money, perhaps 5% or more to see what put premiums might be available and consider staying with the shortest option expiry period available.

Scaling into a trade is also a good idea if selling puts when there is a possible change in trend. If the trend moves back to down, by selling only a small quantity of put options now, more put can be sold for higher premiums.

If no put strike is available at the suggested valuations, I normally move to the nearest put strike available which is lower than the suggested valuations. I also stay with the shortest time period to expiry, weighing the income I can earn against a shorter time frame and risk of assignment of shares. I also close positions early at the first signals that the uptrend is over. I check my stock daily to watch for any change in signals.
 
SPY preview Wk of 4/25/22, 5th and final wk expiry for April/2022, fri 4/29.

Options pricing +/-$12.25 move, +/-3.00%, last fri close 426.04, possible range of 414 to 438 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 415/425 to 440/455 range could hold.

The month open was 453.31, so we are having a bearish April so far, which is usually a green month.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/02/22, 1st wk expiry for May/2022, fri 5/06.

Options pricing +/-$15.12 move, +/-3.67%, last fri close 412, possible range of 397 to 427 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 395 to 444 range could hold.

The month open was 453.31, so we had a very bearish April, which is usually a green month.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/09/22, 2nd wk expiry for May/2022, fri 5/13.

Options pricing +/-$13.50 move, +/-3.30%, last fri close 411.34, possible range of 398 to 425 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 400 to 420/440 range could hold.

The month open for May was 412.07. May usually a red month.
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/16/22, 3rd wk and monthly expiry for May/2022, fri 5/20.

Options pricing +/-$13.00 move, +/-3.25%, last fri close 401.72, possible range of 389 to 415 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 370/400 to 410/430 range could hold.

The month open for May was 412.07. May usually a red month.
 
a summary of what option pit sees from here,
Expect economic data to continue to be bad news for the economy.

Then at the June FOMC meeting Powell will be less hawkish,
which could provide a relief rally for stocks and bonds,
while being negative for the dollar.

After that, chop around into August when we begin to see downgrades,
defaults and bankruptcies.
Then redemptions and forced selling will trigger a serious crash
that will force the Fed to end the tightening.

S&P in September could see 3600, or as low as 2600
 
SPY preview Wk of 5/23/22, 4th wk expiry for May/2022, fri 5/27.

Options pricing +/-$12.50 move, +/-3.20%, last fri close 389.63, possible range of 377 to 402 for this week.
Option volume, open interest for puts, calls, indicate 360/385 to 405/420 range could hold.

The month open for May was 412.07. May usually a red month. Heading in that direction.
 
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