Trading in Luxury

SPY preview Wk of 2/15/2021, 3rd wk and monthly option expiry for feb 2021, Fri 2/19.

Mon 2/15 market holiday. FED minutes wed. Political and market drama going on.
FED acts are supports for markets, more fiscal stim seems likely.
Virus still major concern. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus,CVS,PLTR,EXPD,RNG,AIG,EXAS,OXY,SEDG,DVN,TLRY,WMT,ROKU,DE.

VIX started up slightly, stayed there until fri, came down slightly fri. VIX t/a tells, could level out.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.30 move, +/-1.4%, last Fri close 392.64, possible range of 387 to 398 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 350/380 and under 395/400.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give extended cautious picture, momentum is bull, ovi is positive.
383 21ma, 376 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now well above the upper level.
8 ma has been good support level, it is at 389. Spy at resistance.
HA daily candles last week all green, now at 9 green. MACD bull, STOCH is bull, but extended, RSI bull.

VIX a positive, T/A extended and cautious, momentum positive, political, market drama, SPY could trade flat.
Setting a SPY target of 390, a flat move.
(target last week 388, from 387.28 previous close flat trade, actual close was 392.64, above target, up move)
 
3/1/21, John Hussman of HussmanFunds.com.
In a recent market comment, Hussman wrote...
Presently, I expect that the completion of this market cycle is likely to involve a loss in the S&P 500 on the order of 65-70%.
He estimates the S&P 500 by itself will lose 3.6% per year for the next 12 years.
 
SPY preview Wk of 3/1/2021, 1st wk option expiry for March 2021, Fri 3/5.

New money into funds begining of month. NFP on fri. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED talkers and Powell talk on thur. OPEC meeting on thur.
FED acts are supports for markets, more fiscal stim seems likely.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, NIO,ZM,TGT,COST,GPS,WORK.

VIX started wk up, jump up on thu, slight drop fri, up for the wk. VIX t/a tells, could level out.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$11.40 move, +/-3%, last Fri close 380.36, possible range of 369 to 392 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 370/380 and under 385/390.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give extended cautious picture, momentum is bear, ovi rolling red.
386 21ma, 380 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now just above the upper level.
8 ma has been support level, it is at 388, SPY went below mon, tue, thu, fri. Spy at resistance.
HA daily candles last week R,R,G,R,R. MACD bear, STOCH bear, RSI bear.

VIX positive, T/A extended, cautious, momentum negative, political, market drama, SPY could trade flat.
Setting a SPY target of 378/382, a flat move.
(target last week 387/390, from 390.03 previous close, flat trade, actual close was 380.36, well below target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 3/8/2021, 2nd wk option expiry for March 2021, Fri 3/12.

Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill working thru congress.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, DKS,AMC,ORCL,ULTA,DOCU,FNV,JD,CASY,CPM.

VIX start wk down mon, then move up, high on thu, down fri, up for the wk. VIX t/a tells, could level out.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$9.10 move, +/-2.4%, last Fri close 383.63, possible range of 374.5 to 393 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 375/380 and under 385/390.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give extended cautious picture, momentum is bear, ovi positve.
388 21ma, 381 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now just above the upper level.
8 ma has been support level, it is at 384, SPY went below tue, wed, thu, fri. Went below 50ma thu, above fri.
HA daily candles last week G,G,R,R,R. MACD bear, STOCH bear, RSI bear.

VIX positive, T/A extended, cautious, momentum negative, political, market drama, SPY bounce or trade flat.
Setting a SPY target of 383, a flat move.
(target last week 378/382, from 380.36 previous close, flat trade, actual close was 383.63, above target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 3/15/21, 3rd wk option expiry, monthly, quad witch, for Mar/2021, Fri 3/19.

Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill signed.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, FDX,NKE.

VIX start wk up mon, then move down rest of wk, down for the wk. VIX t/a tells, level out, or down.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$6.75 move, +/-1.7%, last Fri close 394.06, possible range of 387 to 401 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 380/385 and under 400/405.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give extended cautious picture, momentum is bull, ovi positve.
388 21ma, 383 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now above the upper level.
8 ma has been support, it is at 386, SPY went below previous wk, got back above last wk, but 8ma below 21ma.
HA daily candles last week all green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, momentum positive, but getting extended.

VIX positive, T/A extended, momentum bull, extended, political, market drama, SPY could bounce or trade flat.
Setting a SPY target of 395, a flat move.
(target last week 383, from 383.63 previous close, flat trade, actual close was 394.06, well above target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 3/22/21, 4th and last wk option expiry for Mar/2021, Fri 3/26.

Powell talk mon. Powell, Yellen testimony to congress tue, wed. other FED talkers during the week.
Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, GME,ADBE,GIS,WGO,RIOT,RH,KBH,RAIL,DRI,BLNK,TIGR.

VIX start wk down mon, tue, wed, up thur, down fri, up small for the wk. VIX t/a tells, mixed outlook.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a unclear picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$6.50 move, +/-1.7%, last Fri close 389.48, possible range of 383 to 396 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 380/385 and under 400.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give negative picture, momentum is bear, ovi flat.
388 21ma, 384 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now above the upper level.
8 ma has been support, it is at 392, SPY closed below thu, closed below fri.
HA candles last week, G,G,G,R,R. MACD rolling to bear, STOCH bear, RSI turn to bear, so momentum negative.

VIX unclear, T/A negative, momentum negative, political, market drama, SPY could trade down.
Setting a SPY target of 386, a down move.
(target last week 395, from 394.06 previous close, flat trade, actual close was 389.48, below target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 3/29/21, 1st wk option expiry for April/2021, thu 4/1.

Markets closed fri, Good Friday holiday, 4/2. FED talkers mon, tue. NFP fri, 4/2.
Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, CHWY,BB,CONN,MU.

VIX start wk down mon, up tue, wed, down thur, fri, down for the wk. VIX t/a tells, neutral.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a calm picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.40 move, +/-1.4%, last Fri close 395.98, possible range of 391 to 402 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 380/385 and under 400.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give positive picture, momentum bull, ovi was negative, moving to flat.
388.15 21ma, 385.41 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now out of the box, trading to new highs.
8 ma has been support, it is at 391.37, SPY closed below since thu 3/18, closed above fri 3/26.
HA candles last week,R,R,R,R,G. MACD, STOCH rolling to bull, RSI turn to bull, so momentum positive.

VIX calm, T/A positive, momentum positive, shorter trading week, SPY could trade up.
Setting a SPY target of 398, a up move.
(target last week 386, from 389.48 previous close, down trade, actual close was 395.98, well above target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 4/5/21, 2nd wk option expiry for April/2021, fri 4/9.

Markets closed last fri, Good Friday holiday, 4/2.
FED talkers wed 4/7, FOMC minutes wed 4/7, Powell talk thur 4/8.
Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars,
talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, PAYX,RPM,STZ,CAG,LEVI.

VIX start wk up mon, down tue, wed, thur, market closed fri, down for the wk. VIX t/a tells, neutral.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a calm picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.25 move, +/-1.3%, last thu close 400.61, possible range of 395 to 406 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 390/395 and under 405.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give positive picture, momentum bull, ovi is positive.
391 21ma, 387 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high.
8 ma has been support, it is at 394, SPY closed above every day.
HA candles last week, all green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive.

VIX calm, T/A positive, momentum positive, SPY could trade up.
Setting a SPY target of 402, up move.
(target last week 398, from 395.98 previous close, up trade, actual close was 400.61, above target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 4/12/21, 3rd wk option expiry for April/2021, fri 4/16.

IMF meeting sun 4/4, Powell talk sun and wed, other FED talkers wed, thu.
Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. Bond auctions mon, tue.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars,
talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, JPM,GS,FAST,WFC,JPM,BAC,UNH,PEP,AA.

VIX start wk up mon, tue, down wed, thur, fri, down for the wk, 16 handle. VIX t/a tells, neutral.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a calm picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.10 move, +/-1.25%, last fri close 411.49, possible range of 406 to 417 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 395/400 and under 415/420.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give positive but extended picture, momentum bull, ovi is positive.
397 21ma, 390 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high.
8 ma has been support, it is at 404, SPY closed above every day.
HA candles last week, all green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive.

VIX calm, T/A positive, momentum positive, SPY could trade up.
Setting a SPY target of 412, up move.
(target last week 402, from 400.61 previous close, up trade, actual close was 411.49, above target)
 
SPY preview Wk of 4/19/21, 4th wk option expiry for April/2021, fri 4/23.

Dont see Powell or any other FED talkers scheduled to talk.
Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. Bond auction 20 year wed 4/21.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars,
talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups.
Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out.
Earnings in focus, KO,IBM,LMT,HOG,JNJ,PG,NFLX,CSX,VZ,NEE,T,CLF,INTC,SLB,AXP.

VIX start wk up slightly mon, calm thru the week, down for the wk, held 16 handle. VIX t/a tells, neutral.
VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a calm picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$4.80 move, +/-1.20%, last fri close 417.26, possible range of 413 to 422 for this week.
Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 400/415 and under 415/420.

Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give positive but very extended picture, momentum bull.
401.5 21ma, 393.5 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high.
8 ma has been support, it is at 412, SPY closed above every day.
HA candles last week, all green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive.

VIX calm, T/A positive, but very extended, momentum positive, SPY could trade down.
Setting a SPY target of 412, down move.
(target last week 412, from 411.49 previous close, up trade, actual close was 417.26, above target)
 
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