Trading in Luxury

update on the vol switch trade, last posts were May 9th and Jun 18th.

for vol switch trade, a few changes have been made,
for vol short, use SVXY, or TQQQ, (ZIV was terminated)
for vol long, use cash, VXX, or TVIXF, or SQQQ,
(TVIX was altered, with TVIXF now trading otc with uncertain future)

the signal is currently vol short, from 6/30.
a SVXY trade was placed on 6/30 and closed on 7/22,
about $30 gain on 10 shares cost of $305, 3wks holding.

no trade is on right now.
 
SPY preview for Week of 8/3/20, 1st week of option expiry for Aug 2020, on Fri 8/7.

NFP on Fri 8/7.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major cocern.
Earnings in focus next week, MCK, TSN, DIS, W, WEN, WDC, UBER, RL, TMUS.

VIX was bouncy last week, but finished flat for the week. VIX t/a tells, which i take with grain of salt,
indicate a VIX drop this week, would be positive for markets. VIX was staying above 24, could head to 21.
Also, VIX term curve pointing to a positive push for the markets.

Options pricing +/-$6.50 move, +/-2.0%, last Fri close 326.52, possible range of 320 to 333 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 315 and under 335/340.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are mainly bullish.
320.5 is 21ma level, 324 is 8ma, 320 resistance level broken thru, 326 new resistance.
HA daily candles last week, R, R, G, R, G, MACD possible turn from bearish to bullish starting.

With both the VIX and near term T/A pointing to the upside, SPY likely to move higher.

Setting a SPY target of 328/332.
(target for last week was 317, actual close was 326.52)
 
SPY preview for Week of 8/10/20, 2nd week of option expiry for Aug 2020, on Fri 8/14, pit bull week.

FOMC minutes release will be week after this week on WED 8/19.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major cocern.
Earnings in focus next week, DUK, TLRY, NIO, JMIA, CSCO, DKNG.

VIX was bouncy last week, but finished lower for the week. VIX t/a tells, which i take with grain of salt,
indicate a VIX rise this week, negative for markets. VIX term curve however points to a positive push for markets.
So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$6.20 move, +/-2.0%, last Fri close 334.57, possible range of 328 to 341 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 330 and under 345.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are mixed but lean bullish, and the market is pushing on.
325 is 21ma level, 330 is 8ma, old 320 resistance level broken thru, previous high of 338 in sight.
HA daily candles last week were all green, MACD made the turn from bearish to bullish.

With VIX giving a mixed picture and near term T/A signals mixed, SPY move for the week uncertain.
As this is put bull week, could see SPY just bounce, chop around.
Setting a SPY target of 330/332.
(target for last week was 328/332, actual close was 334.57)
 
SPY preview for Week of 8/17/20, 3rd week of option expiry for Aug 2020, on Fri 8/21, monthly expiry.

FOMC minutes release on WED 8/19.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern.
Earnings in focus, WMT, HD, AAP, LOW, TGT, ADI, NVDA, BABA, DE, CREE, ROST, CRMT, AMD, KSS, TJX, JD, PTON, SE.

VIX was bouncy start of week, especially Tue, finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, i take with grain of salt,
indicate VIX could rise, bearish for markets. VIX term curve however pointing to a positive push for markets.
So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.30 move, +/-1.6%, last Fri close 336.84, possible range of 332 to 342 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 325/330 and under 340/345.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are mixed, almost neutral.
329 is 21ma level, 335 is 8ma, old 320 resistance level broken thru, previous high of 338 in sight.
HA daily candles last week were all green, doji on Fri, MACD still bullish.

With VIX giving a mixed picture and near term T/A signals mixed, SPY move for the week uncertain.
As this is monthly expiry week, could see SPY just slow move around.
Setting a SPY target of 337. Possible run to 343 if market gets excited.
(target for last week was 330/332, actual close was 336.84)
 
SPY preview for Week of 8/24/20, 4th week of option expiry for Aug 2020, on Fri 8/28, week after monthly expiry.

Thu preliminary Q2 GDP released and Powell speaks. Fri starts the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern.
Earnings in focus, $BBY $DG $CRM $DLTR $INTU $DKS $MDT $PANW $SJM $ICLK $OKTA $MRVL $ADSK $HRL $WDAY $BIG $COTY
$ULTA $BOX $SPLK $BNS $TOL $VMW $BMO $TD $VEEV $HPE $DELL $BILI $BURL $PLCE $ANF $OLLI $PLAN $FLWS $VIOT
$RY $HPQ $SOL $BITA $ATHM $NTAP

VIX was bouncy all week, finished slightly higher on the week. VIX t/a tells, i take with grain of salt,
indicate a VIX rise this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve however pointing to a positive push for markets.
So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.10 move, +/-1.5%, last Fri close 339.48, possible range of 334.5 to 344.5 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 325/330/332 and under 351.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are not strong either direction,
but pointing to possible downside pressure.
332 is 21ma level, 338 is 8ma, old 320 resistance level broken thru, previous high of 338 excedded.
HA daily candles last week, green Mon, Tue, green doji Wed, red Thu, green Fri. MACD turned bearish, STOCH turns bullish.

With VIX giving a mixed picture and near term T/A signals mixed, SPY move for the week uncertain.
As this is week after monthly expiry week, usually volatile, could see SPY jump around.
Setting a SPY target of 342.
(target for last week was 337/343, actual close was 339.48)
 
SPY preview for Week of 8/31/20, 1st week of option expiry for Sep 2020, on Fri 9/4.

NFP on Fri, 9/4.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern.
Earnings in focus, RXT,ZM,HOME,CLDR,GWRE,CRWD,GSX,AMBA,GES,M,FIVE,SPWH,CPRT,RKT,TTC,DOCU,AVGO,CPB,MOMO,MIK,SIG,CIEN.

VIX again bouncy all week, Thu highest close, down Fri, finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, take with grain of salt,
indicate VIX flat this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve still pointing to a positive push for markets.
So VIX giving a positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$5.60 move, +/-1.6%, last Fri close 350.58, possible range of 345 to 356 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 330/340 and under 350/355.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly poitive, but momentum indicators are mixed.
338 is 21ma level, 348 is 8ma, old 320 resistance level broken thru, previous high of 338 excedded.
HA daily candles last week, all green. MACD turned bullish, STOCH turns bullish.

With VIX giving a positive picture and near term T/A signals mainly positive, SPY could show strenghth.
As this is 1st week of option expiry, again usually volatile, and move from Aug to Sep, could see SPY jump around.
Setting a SPY target of 352.
(target for last week was 342, actual close was 350.58)
 
SPY preview for Week of 9/7/20, 2nd week of option expiry for Sep 2020, on Fri 9/11, pit bull week.

Mon, labor day holiday, ECB meeting on Thu, 9/10.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern.
Earnings in focus, LULU, WORK.

VIX traded higher all week, finished up on the week. VIX t/a tells, take with grain of salt,
indicate VIX could pull back this week, a positive for markets.
VIX term curve still pointing to a positive push for markets.
So VIX giving a positive picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$9.30 move, +/-2.7%, last Fri close 342.61, possible range of 333 to 352 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 335/340 and under 345/350.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly bearish, momentum indicators are negative.
343 is 21ma level, 349 is 8ma, 340 is now a level to watch.
HA daily candles last week, green M,T,W, red Th,F. MACD turned bearish, STOCH turns bullish.

With VIX giving a positive picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak.
Setting a SPY target of 341.
(target for last week was 352, actual close was 342.61)
 
SPY preview Week of 9/14/20, 3rd wk of option expiry for Sep 2020, on Fri 9/11, monthly expiry, quad witch.

FOMC meeting on Tue/Wed, AAPL event on Tue, TSLA battery day is next week Tue 9/22.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern.
Earnings in focus, CBRL, FDX, ADBE.

VIX traded to highs during week, but finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, take with grain of salt,
indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets.
VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets.
So VIX giving a negative picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$9.70 move, +/-2.9%, last Fri close 334.06, possible range of 324 to 344 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 320/325/330 and under 340/350.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly negative, momentum indicators are oversold.
342.5 is 21ma level, 342.5 is 8ma, 340 is now a level to watch. Close is below 21ma.
HA daily candles last week, red all 4 days mkt was open. MACD still bearish, STOCH extremely bearish.

With VIX giving a negative picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak.
Setting a SPY target of 332.
(target for last week was 341, actual close was 334.06)
 
SPY preview Wk of 9/21/20, 4th and final wk option expiry for Sep 2020, Fri 9/25, wk after monthly expiry, quad witch.

End of qtr rebalance going on. Powell talk on Mon/Tue/Wed/Thu, TSLA battery day Tue 9/22.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready.
Earnings in focus, COST,NKE,KMX,DRI,AZO,GIS,ACN,CTAS.

VIX traded to highs during week, but finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, take with grain of salt,
indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets.
VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets.
So VIX giving a negative picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$8.00 move, +/-2.5%, last Fri close 330.65, possible range of 323 to 339 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 325 and under 346.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly negative, momentum indicators are oversold.
341 is 21ma level, 335 is 8ma, 332.55 is 50ma. 340 is now a level to watch.
HA daily candles last week, green M,T,W. red Thu,F. MACD bearish, STOCH bearish.

With VIX giving a negative picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak.
Setting a SPY target of 330.
(target for last week was 332, actual close was 330.65)
 
SPY preview Wk of 9/28/20, 1st wk option expiry for Oct 2020, Fri 10/2.

End of qtr rebalance going on. FOMC members talk every day next week. NFP on Fri.
FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election.
US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready.
Earnings in focus, MU,BBBY,MKC,PEP,STZ.

VIX traded to highs during week, finished slightly lower on the week. VIX t/a tells,
indicate VIX could move down this week, a positive for markets.
VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets.
So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market.

Options pricing +/-$8.20 move, +/-2.5%, last Fri close 328.73, possible range of 320.50 to 337 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 320/325 and under 330/344.

Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly bearish, momentum indicators are oversold.
337.29 is 21ma level, 333.44 is 50ma. 340 is now a level to watch.
HA daily candles last week, red M,T,W,TH, green Fr. MACD bearish, STOCH close to turn bullish.

With VIX giving a mixed picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak.
Setting a SPY target of 330/334.
(target for last week was 330, actual close was 328.73)
 
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