Trading in Luxury

Logan15 said:
is there any more info on this, would like to have a view on the charts.
More...
Logan, i keep my charting simple, look at candles, use moving averages, 8, 21, 50, 200, momentum indicators, MACD, volume, watch the gaps, they usually fill.
check out the market guys on youtube, they do a weekly report, without a lot of complexety.
i also look at the option chain for SPY to get my feel for what the option traders are doing.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 4/13/2020
3rd week of option expiry for Apr 2020, on Fri 4/17, monthly expiry.

Earnings reports starting, banks will be watched.
Virus impact, oil price war, causing market to jump up and down.
FED actions, federal fiscal stimulus seen to be positive for stocks and bonds,
maybe negative for US dollar.
Federal and State governments executive orders shutting the country down.
Many jobs lost, and small business companies going under. Talk of recession and depression.
VIX coming off highs but VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.
Lot of conflicting forces.

Options pricing about +/-$12.60 possible move, 4.5%, last Fri close was 278.20,
gives a range of 266 to 291 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 260/270/275 and under 290.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators point to downside pressure on SPY.
Looking further out, major downside forces still exist, caution is the word.

Setting a SPY target of 276.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 2700/2800.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 4/20/2020
Week 4 of option expiry for Apr 2020, on Fri 4/24.

Earnings reports continuing.
Virus impact, oil price war, causing market to jump up and down.
FED, federal fiscal stimulus, positive for stocks and bonds, maybe negative for US dollar.
Federal and State governments executive orders shutting the country down.
Many jobs lost, and small business companies going under. Talk of recession and depression.
VIX coming off highs but VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.

Options pricing about +/-$10.80 possible move, +/-3.8%, last Fri close was 286.64,
gives a range of 276 to 299 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 280 and under 295.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators point to downside pressure on SPY.

Setting a SPY target of 280/290.

2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 2900 and higher.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 4/27/2020
Week 1 of option expiry for May 2020, on Fri 5/1.

Earnings reports continuing, some big names, SBUX,AMD,TSLA,MSFT,FB,AAPL,GOOGL.
FOMC meeting Tue/Wed. GDP numbers on Fri.
Virus impact, oil price war and efforts to knockout petro dollar, causing market to jump up and down.
FED, federal fiscal stimulus, positive for stocks and bonds, maybe negative for US dollar.
Federal, State, local governments executive orders shutting the country down.
Many jobs lost, and small business companies going under. Talk of recession and depression.
VIX coming off highs but VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.

Options pricing about +/-$9.20 possible move, +/-3.25%, last Fri close was 282.97,
gives a range of 274 to 292 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 280 and under 285/290/300.

Mixed picture on the technicals, with a rising wedge starting to flatten, could be a negative.
Other near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators point to upside pressure on SPY.
HA candles for last week, R,R,G,R,G. No clear direction.

Setting a SPY target of 285.

2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 2900 and higher.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 5/4/2020
Week 2 of option expiry for May 2020, on Fri 5/8.

Earnings, TSN,AIG,CAR,CRUS,MOS,SHAK,SWKS,TXRH,NEM,W,BYND,DIS,BMY,SPCE,GM,SHOP,GRUB.
NFP numbers on Fri.
Virus impact, oil price war, efforts to knockout petro dollar, and US China spat over the virus
causing market to jump up and down.
FED, federal fiscal stimulus, positive for stocks and bonds, maybe negative for US dollar.
Federal, State, local executive orders have country shut down. Some states start to loosen the lockdown.
Many jobs lost, and small business companies going under. Talk of recession and depression.
VIX coming off highs but VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.

Options pricing +/-$10.10 move, +/-3.60%, last Fri close was 282.79, a range of 273 to 293 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 270/275/280 and under 300/305.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators point to downside pressure on SPY.
282 is 21ma level, and 268 could be a downside level to watch.
HA daily candles for last week,G,G,G,G,R. Caution.

Setting a SPY target of 279/283.

2650 is a bull/bear battle number, watch near term 2800 to 2980.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 2900 and higher
 
the vol switch trade went short vol on 9/6/19 with 10 shares of ZIV for $684.50.
on 2/24/20 the trade went long vol and ZIV was sold for $739.80, gain of $55.30.

for vol switch trade, a few changes have been made,
for vol short use ZIV or SVXY, or TQQQ
for vol long use cash, VXX, or TVIX, or SQQQ
TVIX had a 1 for 10 reverse split effective 12/2/2019 which
might make it better to trade.

after the 2/24/20 signal to go long vol, a TVIX trade was made on 2/24/20,
this was the first time trading TVIX, it was a small trade, 1 share for $64.14.
the trade was closed on 3/19/20 for $646.00, gain of $581.86.
the trade was closed based on the action of TVIX as it got way extended and
started to pull back.

the signal is still long vol, and holding cash as the position.
VIX term structure curve very wonky, this is a caution, so we hold cash.
 
SPY preview for Week of 5/11/2020, Week 3 of option expiry for May 2020, monthly expiry on Fri 5/15.

Earnings winding down, many FED talkers, Powell on Wed.
Virus impact, oil price war, efforts to knockout petro dollar, US China spat over the virus,
FED actions, federal fiscal stimulus, causing market to jump up and down.
Some states start to loosen lockdown. Many jobs lost, and companies going under. Talk of recession, depression.
VIX coming off highs but wonky VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets.

Options pricing +/-$7.10 move, +/-2.50%, last Fri close 292.44, a range of 285 to 300 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 285 and under 295/300.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators are mixed, not clear which direction has the push.
283 is 21ma level, 295 is a resistance level. HA daily candles for last week,R,G,G,G,G. this is a positive.

Setting a SPY target of 295.

2650 is a bull/bear battle number, watch near term 3000.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 3000 and higher.
 
SPY preview for Week of 5/18/2020, Week 4 of option expiry for May 2020, on Fri 5/22.
Powell and Mnuchin testify Tue 5/19 to the Senate banking committee regarding the CAREs act.
FED minutes on Wed 5/20, from the April meeting, likely to strike a gloomy note.
Should see reduced activity into end of the week as we head into Memorial Day holiday weekend, market closed on Mon 5/25.

Earnings winding down, Powell on TV Sunday night 5/17.
Virus impact, oil price war, efforts to knockout petro dollar, US China spat over the virus and trade,
FED actions, federal fiscal stimulus, all causing market to jump up and down.
Many jobs lost, and companies going under, corp debt ratings a problem.
FED balance sheet growing to extreme? Talk of recession, depression, inflation/deflation.
Some states start to loosen lockdown.
VIX coming off highs but wonky VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets.

Options pricing +/-$8.80 move, +/-3.00%, last Fri close 286.28, possible range of 278 to 295 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 275/285 and under 293.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mixed but leaning to a positive direction push.
285 is 21ma level, 295 is a resistance level. HA daily candles for last week,G,R,R,R,G. might be a positive.

Setting a SPY target of 290.

2650 is a bull/bear battle number, watch near term 3000.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 3000 and higher.
 
SPY preview for Week of 5/25/2020, Week 5 of option expiry for May 2020, on Fri 5/29.
Market closed on Mon for Memorial Day Holiday, so only 4 trading days.
Volatility usually higher on shortened weeks as traders try to cram activity into fewer days.
Also positioning for the month of June, which starts following week.

US China tensions increasing, both sides pressing issues.
US states trying to open things up in a safe manner.
Still uncertain how bad or long the economic effects of the virus will be.

VIX coming off highs but wonky VIX term structure curve still a caution for the markets.

Options pricing +/-$6.75 move, +/-2.30%, last Fri close 295.44, possible range of 289 to 302 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290 and under 300/310.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators mixed but leaning to a slight down direction push.
289 is 21ma level, 300 is a resistance level. HA daily candles for last week all green. might be a positive.

Setting a SPY target of 295/299.

2650 is a bull/bear battle number, watch near term 3000.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 3000 and higher.
 
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