Trading in Luxury

For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/17/20,
3rd week of option expiry for Feb 2020, monthly expiry, on Fri 2/21.
USA markets closed for Presidents Day holiday on Mon 2/17.

Options pricing +/-$3.50 possible move, last Fri close was 337.60
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 325/328 and under 340.

Chart candles, lower gaps, and some momentum indicators pointing to downward pressure on SPY.
Volume and some other indicators are positive. Think we see dips and chops, but some upward movement.

Setting a SPY target of 338.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 2/24/20,
4th week of option expiry for Feb 2020, week after monthly expiry, on Fri 2/28.

Options pricing +/-$5.20 possible move, last Fri close was 333.48
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 330 and under 339/340.

Chart candles, lower gaps, volume increase on red days, and momentum indicators pointing to downward pressure on SPY.
Think we see a pullback this week.

Setting a SPY target of 332.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/2/20,
1st week of option expiry for Mar 2020, on Fri 3/6.
NFP on Fri 3/6, FOMC meeting on 3/17, 3/18, rate cut expected.
Virus impact still being dealt with.

Options pricing +/-$17.50 possible move, last Fri close was 296.26
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 280 and under 320.
285.5 is a level that needs to be held.

Chart candles, volume and momentum indicators pointing to upside pressure on SPY.
Plan for a move up this week.

Setting a SPY target of 305.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/9/2020
2nd week of option expiry for Mar 2020, on Fri 3/13. pit bull lo week.
FOMC meeting on 3/17, 3/18, .50 rate cut was made last week on 3/3.
Virus impact still being dealt with.

Options pricing +/-$14.50 possible move, last Fri close was 297.46
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290/295 and under 306/335.
285.5 is a level that needs to be held.

Chart candles, volume and momentum indicators pointing to upside pressure on SPY.
Plan for a move up this week.

Setting a SPY target of 302.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/16/2020
3rd week of option expiry for Mar 2020, on Fri 3/20. monthly expiry, qrtrly expiry.
FOMC meeting on 3/17, 3/18, .50 rate cut was made on 3/3.
Virus impact still being dealt with, and oil price war.

Options pricing +/-$21.00 possible move, last Fri close was 270.63
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 270 and under 275/280.

In the very near term, chart candles, volume and momentum indicators pointing to upside pressure on SPY.
SPY could see a move up this week.
Looking further out, downside forces still exist, caution is the word.

Setting a SPY target of 275.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/23/2020
4th and last week of option expiry for Mar 2020, on Fri 3/27.
GDP and jobless claims numbers to watch this week. NFP will be next week.
Virus impact still being dealt with, and oil price war ongoing.
FED taking actions and congress trying for a stimulus package.

Options pricing +/-$22.00 possible move, almost 10%, last Fri close was 228.20
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 225 and under 250.

In the very near term, chart candles, volume and momentum indicators pointing to downside pressure on SPY.
Looking further out, major downside forces still exist, caution is the word.

Setting a SPY target of 225/230.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 3/30/2020
1st week of option expiry for Apr 2020, on Fri 4/3.
ADP job numbers on Wed, NFP numbers on Fri.
Virus impact still being dealt with, and oil price war ongoing.
FED taking actions and fiscal stimulus package just passed and signed into law.
These will provide upside pressure for stocks and bonds.
VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.
End of quarter rebalancing will be going on first days of the week, bonds led
stocks, so could pressure bonds and lift stocks, lot of conflicting forces.

Options pricing about +/-$20.00 possible move, almost 8%, last Fri close was 253.42,
gives a range of 233 to 274 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 230/259 and under 255/265.

In the very near term, chart candles, volume and momentum indicators pointing to downside pressure on SPY.
Looking further out, major downside forces still exist, caution is the word.

Setting a SPY target of 245/255.
 
Logan, i keep my charting simple, look at candles, use moving averages, 8, 21, 50, 200, momentum indicators, MACD, volume, watch the gaps, they usually fill.
check out the market guys on youtube, they do a weekly report, without a lot of complexity.
i also look at the option chain for SPY to get my feel for what the option traders are doing.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 4/6/2020
2nd week of option expiry for Apr 2020, on Thu 4/9, put bull low week.
Mkts closed Fri for Good Friday observence.
FED minutes on Wed, (tentative), FED talker on Fri? Claims on Thu.

Virus impact still being dealt with, and oil price war ongoing.
FED taking actions and federal fiscal stimulus package being implemented.
These may provide upside pressure for stocks and bonds, maybe negative for US dollar.
Federal and State governments executive orders shutting the country down.
Many people losing jobs, and small business companies going under.
Talk of recession and depression.
VIX coming off highs but VIX term structure curve still a negative for the markets.
Lot of conflicting forces.

Options pricing about +/-$12.00 possible move, almost 5%, last Fri close was 248.19,
gives a range of 235 to 260 for this week.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 240 and under 255/260.

Near term, chart candles, gaps, volume, momentum indicators point to downside pressure on SPY.
Looking further out, major downside forces still exist, caution is the word.

Setting a SPY target of 242, with a possible further drop to 230/236.
2345 is a critical level for the S&P, if it breaks, could see 2000.
In the other direction, could see moves to 2700/2800.
 
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