Trading in Luxury

For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 7/1/19, wk27 of 2019, 1st wk of Q3, 1st month of Q3.
1st week of option expiry for July, expiry on Fri 7/5.
Last week Powell talked on Tue, seemed to cause some market negativity. FED ended bank stress tests with positve results.

For Independence Day holiday USA market will close early on Wed, be closed on Thu, Jul 4th, and re-open Fri.
NFP report on Fri, 7/5, China trade talks in the news and tweets. VIX curve in contango.
Earnings of note, MPAA, SODA, TWX, KHC, FIZZ, SHLD, ABX, P.

SPY closed down slightly for the week at 293.00, down 1.00, 0.3%, previous week close was 294.00.
SPY traded flat Mon, down slightly into the week, up Fri strong into the close, but still down for the week.
Fri was a green candle day.
Momentum indicators are showing some strenghth, could see positive action.
Setting a SPY target of 295.

Options pricing +/-$5.14 possible move, last Fri close was $293.00.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290 and under 296/297.

Some stocks on the watch list that look positive, AAPL, BABA, JD, FB, EA, BX.
And ROKU looks weak, more downside?
 
For the SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 7/8/19, wk28 of 2019, 2nd wk of Q3, 1st month of Q3.
2nd week of option expiry for July, expiry on Fri 7/12. Pit bull low week, could see some weakness at end of week.

Tue, Powell to deliver opening remarks at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Wed, release of the Fed’s June FOMC meeting notes.
Last Fri 6/5, FED released monetary policy report that Powell will testify to congress this week, Wed and Thu.

China trade talks in the news and tweets. VIX curve in contango.
Earnings of note, PEP, DAL, BBBY.

SPY closed up for the week at 298.46, up 5.46, 1.86%, previous week close was 293.00.
SPY gap up Mon, showed strength into the holiday shortened week, early close Wed, closed Thu, back open Fri.
Fri was gap down, pull up into the day, close above the open, lower close than Wed, but still a green candle day.
Momentum indicators are showing some strength, could see positive action.
Setting a SPY target of 299.

Options pricing +/-$2.90 possible move, last Fri close was $298.46.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 295 and under 300.

Some stocks on the watch list, AAPL, BAC, MSFT, DIS, HSY, UAA, VZ, T, SOYB, XLU.
 
update on the vol switch trade which is either in cash or ZIV,

the trade sold ZIV @$79.72 on 9/17/2018, gain $82.45 on 5 shares and went to cash.

on 1/3/2019 bought ZIV @$59.52, upped trade size to 10 shares, $595.20.

on 4/26/2019 sold ZIV @$75.82, 10 shares, $758.20, gain $163, and went to cash.

on 6/4/2019 bought ZIV @$70.89, 10 shares, $708.90, still holding as of 7/12/2019.

ZIV closed at $76.55. Getting close to selling ZIV and going to cash.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 7/15/19, wk29 of 2019, 3rd wk of Q3, 1st month of Q3.
3rd week of option expiry for July, monthly expiry on Fri 7/19.

China trade talks in the news and tweets. VIX curve in contango.
Earnings of note, NFLX, C, JPM, GS, WFC, JNJ, DPZ, SCHW, BAC, ABT, ERIC, UNH, MS, NUE, HON, BX, UNP,
PM, DHR, GPC, PPG, DOV, SNA, POOL, MSFT, CLF, BLK, KSU, AXP, SLB.

SPY closed up for the week at 300.65, up 2.19, +.7%, previous week close was 298.46.
SPY gap down Mon, then showed strength into the rest of the week, Fri was a green candle day.
There are some open gaps at lower levels which could be attraction to draw down SPY.
Momentum indicators are showing some strength, could see continued positive action.
Setting a SPY target of 302.

Options pricing +/-$2.75 possible move, last Fri close was $300.65.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 295 and under 300/302.

Some stocks on the watch list, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, MSFT, DIS, HSY, UAA, VZ, T, SOYB, XLU, XLY.
 
update on the vol switch trade which is either in cash or ZIV,

on 6/4/2019 bought ZIV @$70.89, 10 shares, $708.90.

on 7/17/2019 sold ZIV @$75.91, 10 shares, $759.10, gain $50.20, and went to cash.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 7/22/19, wk30 of 2019, 4th wk of Q3, 1st month of Q3.
4th week of option expiry for July, on Fri 7/26.

China trade talks in the news and tweets. VIX curve in contango.
(This week will see traders waiting on next week for FOMC on 7/30, 7/31, and NFP 8/2.
Its also quiet time at the FED ahead of the meeting, so no FED talkers.)

Earnings of note, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, TSLA, VZ, T, BA, FCX, NDAQ, SBUX, HSY, CMG, ABBV,
INTC, MCD, TWTR.

SPY closed the week down at 297.17, down 3.48, -1.2%, previous week close was 300.65.
SPY up slightly Mon, down Tue, Wed, up Thu, down Fri, a red candle day on increased volume.
The closest open gap below was filled. There is still a near gap at a lower level.
Momentum indicators are showing weakness.
Setting a SPY target of 294.

Options pricing +/-$3.60 possible move, last Fri close was 297.17.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290/294 and under 300/302.

Some stocks on the watch list, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, MSFT, DIS, HSY, UAA, V, VZ, T, SOYB, XLU, XLY.
 
7/25/19 update on the vol switch trade,
using a long ZIV position for short vol,
or a cash position for long vol

main signals used to switch,

action of stock indexs, positive action, stay short vol,

junk and hiyield bond etfs, positve action, stay short vol,

contango/backwardation of VIX, contango, stay short vol,

recently added the VIX options call/put ATM premium disparity as a caution signal.

Main points about the above signals are that as long as stock traders are satisfied with market action,

they will also look to junk and hiyield bonds, and have little need for protection,

once they become concerned, they will get put protection and vix will rise.

so we would be short vol, with ZIV, until a switch signal called for exit of

ZIV, and then go long vol with cash.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 7/29/19, wk31 of 2019, 5th wk of Q3, 1st month of Q3.
July ending mid week and we move to August, 2nd month of Q3.
1st week of option expiry for August, on Fri 8/2.

Moving into August, usually a low volume slow month for the markets.
China trade talks in the news and tweets. Military action picking up around the globe.
FOMC on 7/30, 7/31, and NFP 8/2. VIX curve in contango.

Earnings of note, BYND, UAA, AMD, AAPL, QCOM, SHOP, SQ, MA, MO, MRK, GILD, GM, CBOE, CVX, XOM,

SPY closed the week up at 302.01, up 4.48, +1.6%, previous week close was 297.17.
SPY up slightly Mon, up Tue and Wed, down Thu, then up Fri, to finish the week in the green.
There is still a gap at a lower level.
Momentum indicators are mixed, some moving out of overbought conditions, and pointing lower.
Setting a SPY target range of 294 to 302.

Options pricing +/-$3.60 possible move, last Fri close was 302.01.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 297 and under 301/303.

Some stocks on the watch list, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, MSFT, DIS, HSY, UAA, V, VZ, T, SOYB, XLU, XLY.
 
For SPY weekly trade, preview for Week of 8/5/19, wk32 of 2019, 6th wk of Q3, 2nd month of Q3.
2nd week of option expiry for August, on Fri 8/9. Week before monthly expiry, Pit bull low week.

August, usually a low volume slow month for the markets.
China trade talks in the news and tweets. Military action picking up around the globe.
VIX futures curve mostly in contango, but looking wierd.

Earnings, most big players have reported, still a lot of stocks yet to report, of note,
TSN, DIS, CZR, PODD, MOS, PZZA, MYL, MNST, DDD, AIG, WYNN, TRIP, SWKS, ROKU, LNG, UBER, TTD.

SPY closed the week down at 292.62, down 9.39, -3.11%, previous week close was 302.01.
SPY down Mon, down Tue, held the 10ma, Wed and Thu had wild swings, blamed on Powell talk
and Prez tariff tweets, ending in lower days.
Fri down, got below the 50ma, but regained it by end of day.
Fri candle was a hammer, but it was at the 50ma, some call that a rubber hammer.
Will have to see if it proves bullish or not for the new week.
Weeks action managed to fill a gap at a lower level, which now could be support at 290.
Momentum indicators moving to oversold conditions, and could provide upside draw.
Seasonality is weak and could be the downside pressure.
Setting a SPY target of 286/289.

Options pricing +/-$5.20 possible move, last Fri close was 292.62.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 290 and under 302.

Short term buy signals on UUP, TLT, very extended.
Short term sell signals on GLD, GDX, SLV, XLE, SMH, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM.
Possible short term buy signals could be getting ready for SPY, QQQ, GLD, SMH.

Some stocks on the watch list, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, MSFT, DIS, HSY, UAA, V, VZ, T, SOYB, XLU, XLY.
 
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