Trading in Luxury

update on the vol switch trade which is either in cash or ZIV,
went to 5 shares ZIV on April 12, 5x $63.23, $316.15 total,
still holding ZIV, 9/7 close at $75.39, $376.95 total.

this is being a "slowsky" trade, not sure if that is good or bad, but still in the green.

vol trades can result in a big loss, that is why i am trading small, to work out a plan,
and then go bigger if i have some confidence.
 
SPY weekly option trade

SPY wkly 289 call, in mon 9/10, closed this morning, 9/13, .84 to 1.88, 5 lot, $520 gain, $420 trade size.
try to keep size around $500, use just out of the money option, usually around $1.00
call or put depending on estimate of market direction for the week
look to limit loss to 50%, and gain target 50%, close by thurs or sooner if show profit
 
3 hedge funds to watch for info on future market outlook,

James Simons, Renaissance
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Jeffery Gundlach, Double-line Capital
 
preview for Week of 10/1, start of Q4.

For earnings, no big players scheduled yet. NFP Fri 5th.

1st week of option expiry for October, Fri 5th,...can be a wonky week.

My outlook for the market is for the upside, have a SPY target of 292.
Options pricing +/-$3.00 possible move, last Fri close was $290.72.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 292.

Monday will be watching 5/Oct SPY calls, for a trade.
 
preview for Week of 10/8, wk2 of Q4.

For earnings, FAST, DAL, JPM, C, WFC, PNC, FRC..... IMF meeting starting Fri 12th.

2nd week of option expiry for October, Fri 12th, pit bull low week, week before monthly expiry.

My outlook for the market is for the upside, have a SPY target of 291.
Options pricing +/-$4.00 possible move, last Fri close was $287.82.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 293.

Monday will be watching 12/Oct SPY calls, for a trade.
 
preview for Week of 10/15, wk3 of Q4.

FED minutes Wed 10/17.

3rd week of option expiry for October, Fri 19th, monthly expiry.

My outlook for the market is for the upside, have a SPY target of 285.
Options pricing +/-$6.50 possible move, last Fri close was $275.95.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 285 and over 280

Monday will be watching 19/Oct SPY calls, for a trade.
 
trade plan for SPY BPS

look for a support level and place the BPS below it.

use BB as the main T/A study.

look for a dime, or a nickel credit on a dollar.

Spreads $1 or $2 wide, also consider $3 or up to $5. Still evaluating.

trade front month and enter wk after OPX wk, or any time after.

plan allows for additional entries of the same spread or a different one.

plan to exit OPX wk, usually by Tue.

hold to expiry if far enough OTM at the time.

loss exit, get out if the spread goes over 2X the original price (original credit).

no adjustments, simple plan going in, if things go bad, get out and plan next trade.
 
update on the vol switch trade which is either in cash or ZIV,
sold the 5 shares ZIV on Sep 17, 5x $79.72, $398.60 total,
(the shares were bought on April 12, 5x $63.23, $316.15 total)
so trade is now in cash.


vol trades can result in a big loss, that is why I am trading small, to work out a plan,
and then go bigger if I have some confidence.
 
Here is my opinion of what the options market is showing us for the week of Nov 12.
Going into the end of last week, option players were leaning to the put side (60%) of the main market ETFs.
The index option players, were also leaning put side, what you dont really know is how much is hedging vs directional positions.
VIX option players almost 70% call side.
i think the general message is a cautionary one.

AAPL options show slight call side bias, could get pulled to $212, watch how that changes during the week.

looking for a possible turn around play,
option players were starting to warm up to the call side of USO.
Possible pull to $14.50, last Fri Nov 9, close was $12.70.
 
preview for Week of 11/12, wk7 of Q4.
Bond market closed Monday for Veterans Day.
FED head Powell talking Wed 11/14.

3rd week of option expiry for November, Fri 16th, monthly expiry.

My outlook for the market is for pull back and slight upside, have a SPY target of 278.
Options pricing +/-$4.50 possible move, last Fri close was $277.76.
Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY under 278 and over 277,
should be an interesting week.

Monday will be watching 16/Nov SPY calls on a pullback for a trade.
 
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