Trading in Luxury

[traderlux]

fri 4/1 SPY @ $206.92
bto apr/15 211 put
sto apr/8 208 put
$2.64 Db
must be closed by short leg expiry apr 8
goal is to buy back at $3.00

 

[traderlux]

mon 4/4 the trade was showing a 8% gain

today tue 4/5 closed the trade at $3.00, about a 14% gain

 

[traderlux]

sim trade put on fri 4/29
SPY @ $206.30
bto may/13 210 put
sto may/6 207 put
$2.34 Db

 

[traderlux]

wed 5/4 spy @ 204.91
closed trade at 2.90, .56 gain, 24% return

 

[traderlux]

summary 5 trades, 2 break evens, 1@ 50% loss, 1@ 14% gain, 1@24% gain

have a better understanding of this trade now and that 50% loss could have been avoided

 

[traderlux]

VXX thu/fri trade is based on observation that VIX is likely to make a low on thu and then move higher on fri.
I have been trading this with good results. A variation I have found is to watch for an entry on wed, I did that trade this week and got out this morning.

i have been doing a 3 lot with VXX and for last three weeks results are gains of $150, $198, and $375, this week i did the wed/thu variation.

 

[traderlux]

the VXX thu/fri trade details from actual and some back tested trades

trade size 3 lot about $4500
time in trade, exit same day or next day
risk, estimated at 10%
gain, about 5%
win rate, about 70%
trade entry use 2 min chart looking for a move lower
trade exit use 2 min chart looking for a move higher

 

[traderlux]

FCX, have traded often, on thu BTO wkly 11 call .18, closed this am for .38
10 lot for $200 gain

 

[traderlux]

for the week ending 5/27 I did not do a vxx trade, didn't like the action, but I did mark a wed variation trade for reference with the 3 lot trade size it gained $78, enter wed am at 13.98, exit wed pm at 14.24.



for the week ending 6/3 I did a thu pm entry and fri am exit, the 3 lot trade gained $150, in 13.11, out 13.61.



VXX thu/fri trade is based on observation that VIX is likely to make a low on thu and then move higher on fri.
I have been trading this with good results. A variation I have found is to watch for an entry on wed.
i have been doing a 3 lot with VXX and for last five weeks results are gains of $150, $198, $375, $78 (trade marked, not taken), $150

 

[traderlux]

svxy trade entry rules
vix level below 20-25
svxy/vix ratio 2.5 to 4.5
svxy price under 50 (exit before/at 60)

7/14 closed svxy at 57.75, entry 6/30 at 45.43
net $1232, 27%, in trade for 2 weeks

merrill lynch research team says" you want to own volatility in an election year
and vix spikes above 24 on average in the month ahead of (october) presidential elections