Trades for today

[farmerjohn1324]

These are fake currency pair trades. The reason for posting this is to see what changes to my strategy should be made, and I am still open to the possibility that none of this is a good idea.

My GUESSES for today. Two trades.

1. I bought GBP/JPY. I bought this because GBP went down yesterday because of renewed fears of a no-deal Brexit. I am of the opinion that Brexit fears are over exaggerated and that Britain will be just fine after leaving the EU. I viewed yesterday's action as an opportunity for a sale. I bet $50,000 fake dollars. After a few hours, I would have profited over $700. But now just a few hours later, I have lost over $3,200. Seeing as it's only been a few hours, it's difficult to tell when is too early to call a trade won or lost. For all I know, if I hold this for 1 year, I could have made or lost 200%. This still leaves me with little conclusions to draw. Still feels like roulette. I picked to get against JPY for no other reason than I have to pick a pair and that JPY is a safe haven. I figured if money would flow into GBP, it would tend to flow away from safe havens. I also could have picked CHF. I don't know if this is sound reasoning.

2. I bet on the USD/CHF. I did this at about 9:00am ET. This is because there were two news releases today for USA. The first was at 8:30am. This was the Housing Starts and Building Permits. Both of these beat expectations slightly. The 2nd news release was Capacity Utilization and Industrial and Manufacturing Output. I guessed that if the first news release beat expectations, so would the second.

Capacity Utilization was 0.1% short of estimate, but Industrial and Manufacturing Output beat expectations by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Looking at the attached screenshot, you can see that the actual minute of 8:30 was slightly down (1 pip) but part of a larger short-term trend upwards that superceded the news release. Then there was a big uptrend from 8:42-8:56 that had nothing to do with the news releases. Then, at 9:15, it continued to go up as part of an unrelated force and I would guess the news release had little effect on the chart.

Conclusions? That these "minor" news releases don't form the basis of a trading strategy?

 

[prefro]

GBPJPY

• I think you should have decided before the trade your exit strategies. When to take profit or loss.
• Also, how much of your fictitious bank roll did you put at risk?
• Buy the rumour, sell the news I would think applies here. There was a rumour the Tories would win, so everybody was buying up to the announcement. Then there was a sell-off.
  
• The current decrease is happening while the volume is decreasing which could indicate that it's not reflecting real trader sentiment. Looking further back, there is indeed an uptrend and we are at the bottom of the channel of that uptrend.

This could indicate a buying opportunity. I am just an amateur trader though and these views are not to be considered as financial advice. Good luck!

 

[Wheezooo]

These are fake currency pair trades. The reason for posting this is to see what changes to my strategy should be made, and I am still open to the possibility that none of this is a good idea.

My GUESSES for today. Two trades.

1. I bought GBP/JPY. I bought this because GBP went down yesterday because of renewed fears of a no-deal Brexit. I am of the opinion that Brexit fears are over exaggerated and that Britain will be just fine after leaving the EU. I viewed yesterday's action as an opportunity for a sale. I bet $50,000 fake dollars. After a few hours, I would have profited over $700. But now just a few hours later, I have lost over $3,200. Seeing as it's only been a few hours, it's difficult to tell when is too early to call a trade won or lost. For all I know, if I hold this for 1 year, I could have made or lost 200%. This still leaves me with little conclusions to draw. Still feels like roulette. I picked to get against JPY for no other reason than I have to pick a pair and that JPY is a safe haven. I figured if money would flow into GBP, it would tend to flow away from safe havens. I also could have picked CHF. I don't know if this is sound reasoning.

2. I bet on the USD/CHF. I did this at about 9:00am ET. This is because there were two news releases today for USA. The first was at 8:30am. This was the Housing Starts and Building Permits. Both of these beat expectations slightly. The 2nd news release was Capacity Utilization and Industrial and Manufacturing Output. I guessed that if the first news release beat expectations, so would the second.

Capacity Utilization was 0.1% short of estimate, but Industrial and Manufacturing Output beat expectations by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Looking at the attached screenshot, you can see that the actual minute of 8:30 was slightly down (1 pip) but part of a larger short-term trend upwards that superceded the news release. Then there was a big uptrend from 8:42-8:56 that had nothing to do with the news releases. Then, at 9:15, it continued to go up as part of an unrelated force and I would guess the news release had little effect on the chart.

Conclusions? That these "minor" news releases don't form the basis of a trading strategy?

Being the individual who said to you the markets are not roulette. That read like someone guessing red or black

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Being the individual who said to you the markets are not roulette. That read like someone guessing red or black

That's kind of where I'm at. Trying to see if there's a way to increase odds to above those of roulette. And not really sure how to tell if my correct guesses/intuitions aren't false positives.

 

[Wheezooo]

Why would your intuitions ever be Superior to the collective wisdom that makes up the market? Furthermore, betting reports sounds like a damn coin flip to me, even if all you did was trade that one market and knew it inside and out.

 

[ironchef]

Why would your intuitions ever be Superior to the collective wisdom that makes up the market? Furthermore, betting reports sounds like a damn coin flip to me, even if all you did was trade that one market and knew it inside and out.

Nothing wrong with 50:50 coin flip if win payout > loss. My "bets" have been consistently less than 50:50 and I get by.

 

[Wheezooo]

Nothing wrong with 50:50 coin flip if win payout > loss. My "bets" have been consistently less than 50:50 and I get by.

You've developed a certain level of risk management skills to make certain that is the case and have rules in place that you adhere to to make certain that remains the case.
The OP is just guessing and doesn't appear to even be thinking about risk management.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You've developed a certain level of risk management skills to make certain that is the case and have rules in place that you adhere to to make certain that remains the case.
The OP is just guessing and doesn't appear to even be thinking about risk management.

What's the first step in risk management? Is it placing appropriate stops and limits?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Nothing wrong with 50:50 coin flip if win payout > loss. My "bets" have been consistently less than 50:50 and I get by.

If you place your winning amount at three times the losing amount, then aren't you three times more likely to lose than you are to win?

Can you explain in more detail?

 

[Wheezooo]

What's the first step in risk management? Is it placing appropriate stops and limits?

Always having an exit strategy before you enter. Have the whole trade thought out. For better or for worse.