Trades for today

[Wheezooo]

Ok. Maybe such a short-term GUESS isn't a well thought out strategy then.

I think you can safely remove the word maybe, but the fact you recognize this, is a step in the right direction.

and so was this:

"If this were real money, I would have lost 8.9% of the $100,000 I bet today. Roughly $8,900 gone just like that in a matter of 6 hours."

define your boundary. BEFOREHAND. Allowing for a 9% swing in capital on one 'normal' day is entirely unacceptable.

[/QUOTE]Which leads me to my first problem: I don't know what logical basis to place my trades on. Even if I think something makes sense, it may just be deluding myself. Should I be looking only at TA for this?.[/QUOTE]

I've pondered for the past three years if I should express my personal opinions and experience related to TA in something I am working on. I decided after participating in a recent thread to avoid that can of worms. Therefore, I have nothing to say on the matter.

Edit:first time I tried using the grey boxed quotes twice in the same post... obviously didn't work. Please advise.

 

[Handle123]

These are fake currency pair trades. The reason for posting this is to see what changes to my strategy should be made, and I am still open to the possibility that none of this is a good idea.

My GUESSES for today. Two trades.

1. I bought GBP/JPY. I bought this because GBP went down yesterday because of renewed fears of a no-deal Brexit. I am of the opinion that Brexit fears are over exaggerated and that Britain will be just fine after leaving the EU. I viewed yesterday's action as an opportunity for a sale. I bet $50,000 fake dollars. After a few hours, I would have profited over $700. But now just a few hours later, I have lost over $3,200. Seeing as it's only been a few hours, it's difficult to tell when is too early to call a trade won or lost. For all I know, if I hold this for 1 year, I could have made or lost 200%. This still leaves me with little conclusions to draw. Still feels like roulette. I picked to get against JPY for no other reason than I have to pick a pair and that JPY is a safe haven. I figured if money would flow into GBP, it would tend to flow away from safe havens. I also could have picked CHF. I don't know if this is sound reasoning.

2. I bet on the USD/CHF. I did this at about 9:00am ET. This is because there were two news releases today for USA. The first was at 8:30am. This was the Housing Starts and Building Permits. Both of these beat expectations slightly. The 2nd news release was Capacity Utilization and Industrial and Manufacturing Output. I guessed that if the first news release beat expectations, so would the second.

Capacity Utilization was 0.1% short of estimate, but Industrial and Manufacturing Output beat expectations by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Looking at the attached screenshot, you can see that the actual minute of 8:30 was slightly down (1 pip) but part of a larger short-term trend upwards that superceded the news release. Then there was a big uptrend from 8:42-8:56 that had nothing to do with the news releases. Then, at 9:15, it continued to go up as part of an unrelated force and I would guess the news release had little effect on the chart.

Conclusions? That these "minor" news releases don't form the basis of a trading strategy?

Are you really a farmer or selected the name as it being cutsy?
If a farmer, what is the acreage and what is grown?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Are you really a farmer or selected the name as it being cutsy?
If a farmer, what is the acreage and what is grown?

I am not a farmer. It's a random name I made up over a decade ago.

Although I would definitely buy a farm if I could make 40%! And if I could hire all labor.

 

[expiated]

I bought GBP/JPY. I bought this because GBP went down yesterday because of renewed fears of a no-deal Brexit.

I don't know where you bought GBPJPY, but if it was anywhere around 143.78 it looks like a solid decision to me.



Whether or not it actually pans out is a whole other matter.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I don't know where you bought GBPJPY, but if it was anywhere around 143.78 it looks like a solid decision to me.

View attachment 215442

Whether or not it actually pans out is a whole other matter.

144.616

What makes it a solid decision? How can you trust your lines? Are they wrong as often as they're right?

 

[SunTrader]

...


Edit:first time I tried using the grey boxed quotes twice in the same post... obviously didn't work. Please advise.

First "QUOTE" box shouldn't have a / forward slash in front. Only on the end one. Edit it out in future, if it happens, and it will post correctly.

 

[Overnight]

First "QUOTE" box shouldn't have a / forward slash in front. Only on the end one. Edit it out in future, if it happens, and it will post correctly.

Makes me want to be able to edit it for him. Like an itch I cannot scratch, lol! Because I know exactly his intent.

@Magna help that post up there!

 

[DevBru]

REALITY CHECK:

If this were real money, I would have lost 8.9% of the $100,000 I bet today. Roughly $8,900 gone just like that in a matter of 6 hours.

Although if I had profited $8,900 I would feel like a genius and have a false sense of confidence in my abilities to spin a roulette wheel.

Also reality check:
If I plan to hold these trades for 12 months, there's a good chance they will be in the positive at some point during those twelve months. But then I better not need that money for something else.

8,9% in 6 hours?

You are taking way to much risk if your goal is to hold your trades for a longer period of time.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

8,9% in 6 hours?

You are taking way to much risk if your goal is to hold your trades for a longer period of time.

That's all due to the leveraging of currency pairs. It would have been 8.9% of any amount I put there.

I can't control the leveraging or volatility of Forex.

 

[SunTrader]

Right but what you can control, no matter the market, is what you risk. At least initially, and barring a gap or sudden move your ongoing risk.