It depends on your system, and in most cases you would get wipsawed in a situation like that. At least I did today with ES, but my system is mechanical, so it does not care whether it's a coild or not, just keeps trying until it breaks out. Sounds stupid, but in fact, it's all about statistics anyway, so a few wipsaws do not matter as long as you can catch bigger trends.
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traderkay's stupid paper trades
- Thread starter traderkay
- Start date
It depends on your system, and in most cases you would get wipsawed in a situation like that. At least I did today with ES, but my system is mechanical, so it does not care whether it's a coild or not, just keeps trying until it breaks out. Sounds stupid, but in fact, it's all about statistics anyway, so a few wipsaws do not matter as long as you can catch bigger trends.
well suppose i only try to enter once and get stopped out with a small loss. suppose i make 3x that every time it does work out. do you think there'd be potential in in trading symm. triangles then?
so basically it would need to fake me 3 times to make me breakeven. but the thing with symm. triangles they seem to fake at least once like 75% of the time. so like 3 out of 4 times the sucker faked on the first try would be yours truly. anyways, i need more stats on this i guess?
so basically it would need to fake me 3 times to make me breakeven. but the thing with symm. triangles they seem to fake at least once like 75% of the time. so like 3 out of 4 times the sucker faked on the first try would be yours truly. anyways, i need more stats on this i guess?
0407 was a trend day weehoo. there was a gap up which set up the emotional baggage needed for a trend day. the early morning action was up, so that was confusing. probably faked a few orb players. A trend day was also likely because previous day was InsideRange or something like that per Brandon. so early morning was confusing. then i saw the descending triangle form. it faked once to the downside. next break was good with nice little snap back to the lower line. risk reward sucked on the triangle since it was so narrow. but once it broke down, there was bear flags galore. flag setup, break, target met, rinse, repeat. So basically I papertraded once of those flags.
On the daily we have a very interesting picture. SPY tried to gap above resistance and got hammered down really hard back under it. I'd say that's a very bearish development, no? Overall this up swing/trend/whatever is not progressing in a healthy way. After the 4 (or whatever) up weeks up we had, it's been crap, just gapping around. Resistance is very strong, there's the 200 MA, the big downtrendline (very obvious) and prior highs. I'd call this "resistance rejection" or something. Basically SPY got rejected at the resistance in a very rude fashion. Today's down red candle is too big for me to enter on daily, too much risk. plus SPY keeps gapping around like an idiot so that's not the best environment for swing trading. So on daily, I'm sitting on the sidelines. Overall, things are bearish though.
On the daily we have a very interesting picture. SPY tried to gap above resistance and got hammered down really hard back under it. I'd say that's a very bearish development, no? Overall this up swing/trend/whatever is not progressing in a healthy way. After the 4 (or whatever) up weeks up we had, it's been crap, just gapping around. Resistance is very strong, there's the 200 MA, the big downtrendline (very obvious) and prior highs. I'd call this "resistance rejection" or something. Basically SPY got rejected at the resistance in a very rude fashion. Today's down red candle is too big for me to enter on daily, too much risk. plus SPY keeps gapping around like an idiot so that's not the best environment for swing trading. So on daily, I'm sitting on the sidelines. Overall, things are bearish though.
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SPY got rejected at resistance. Slapped in the face with an ugly red candle. So now there's a little range bar to go short off. Provided there's no big gap down (big assumption lately), we'll go short below today's low, looking to reach tha target. O ya the stop would be at today's high.