traderkay's stupid paper trades

T

traderkay

I'll post some paper trades here. All fully explained with charts (how refreshing eh, except they are stupid:) I'll post when I feel like it. The trades will be mostly position trades in SPY. Everyone welcome to post here, except Jack. Most welcome replies will be the ones explaining to me why I screwed up:)

The first trade was posted here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=15740 And it was pretty stupid:)
 
Ok well it looks like we have something classic on 60min SPY. We have a primary trend, a secondary trend which was a 50% correction. The secondary trend took form of a bullish pennant? Right? Now it gapped up out of the pennant. And hrm, the trend is up and we should look to go long but like where? I'm stupid I don't know.
 

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788 low + 895 high / 2 = 841.5
which is pretty much were it found buyers again. Try to be aware of that 50% number for retracements. Not concrete always but at least its another tool for the arsenal.
 
....just to add, I would only apply this retracement analysis for clearly defined one-sided(parabolic) moves such as the one above. Then you can look for "potential" support or resistance on retracement. In other cases when the move is not so clear I think this type of analysis is suspect.
 
i'm looking to go long at the gap fill, if the gap fills, SPY will come back to a huge S/R line with which its been playing for quite a while now. what's funny is that that line happens to be in the middle of the big SPY range that started in July 02. In short we have 3 things going on as quasi-reasons to go long:
1) gap fill
2) coming back to super S/R line
3) testing the pennant breakout point

If this doesn't setup, I'll prolly play that downtrend line or something. In other words I don't know what I'm doing:)
 

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We got a 5min intraday symm. triangle. Now lemme ask you. How the hell is one supposed to play it? There were 4 fake breaks and eventually the pattern just died down without any follow thru! This is the reason I kind of hate symmetrical triangles. Do you play them?
 

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Coils are notoriously unreliable. So, you don't play them (notice all the traps laid for those who tried).

The trade was the opening breakout. Very little after that.

--Db
 
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