The reason I would lose statistically over time is basically the bid/ask spread or commission. If I don't hedge, my "big wins" will cancel out my "big losses" and it amounts to the same thing.
It all boils down to being able to predict something. And to only make trades when I have good reason to think I will win. That's why I'm not worried about my RBM21 (Gasoline futures June 2021) even though I'm down $8,000 right now ($0.0538/contract) because I still think it will go up. This is based on a long-term economic view. Although I am starting to slightly worry about contango effects.
and just like in the other thread your "predictions" are getting you in trouble. Everyone only takes trades when they think they will win. If they didnt think they could win they wouldnt take the trade. You know how you cancel out big losses? Take less risk and preserve your capital.
You sound like you belong in r/wallstreetbets.