I think ZN could test 1.22 in coming weeks, and will try as high as 1.092 until this delta number is peaked. In the meantime, Powell's job is on the line. I don't want to short anything but to sell covered trades to lower overall basis. Don't want to carry index trades longer than few days regardless of profit or loss.
Trade of a lifetime- Shorting treasury bonds
- Thread starter Jad930
- Start date
I am looking forward to the opportunity. What's wrong with that?
And you are just a hypocrite. You are on a trading forum and trading is what causes pain, misery and ruins lives.
How do you feel about that?
You being compassionate and caring about the pain and misery it will cause, doesn't help anybody. It only makes you feel better.
That's an interesting assertion about trading. If you're talking about trader's lives, sucks for you but you signed up for it. If you're talking about the life of a guy trying to feed his family working at a regular 9-5, it's a pretty big and unsupported logical leap to decide that trading makes their life miserable. I feel just fine about trading in general, to answer your question.
You started out good with your clarification, then veered strongly toward the narcissist explanation with your last paragraph. I mean by that logic, being compassionate and caring about the pain and misery murders will cause, doesn't help anybody. So we might as well say I'm "really looking forward to" murders then? Being compassionate and caring about the pain and misery poverty will cause, doesn't help anybody. So we might as well say I'm "really looking forward to" poverty then? Being compassionate and caring about the pain and misery disease will cause, doesn't help anybody. So we might as well say I'm "really looking forward to" disease then?
Selfish right up, being compassionate and caring doesn't help anybody so screw everyone and think only about yourself....by your "logic". That's not how normal people think, by the way.
Many traders divorce their pnl from the pain in society. Even when they are the cause of it: "Grandma Millie." or if they are a bystander who profited: "I made my bonus shorting your house."
https://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/13/...aders-grandma-millie-making-like-bandits.html
https://observer.com/2010/09/mr-bub...daily-sushi-and-the-glorious-bust-behind-him/
You could argue that having such sociopaths in society is what keeps capitalism efficient. PE guys I've done deals with are the same way when they talk about the companies they own.
That's why I'm not in PE and have turned down PE offers to buy my company
I think there's a significant difference between "looking forward" to huge crash that leads to a bunch of foreclosed houses, for example, and buying a house at a foreclosure auction and later selling and therefore profiting from it. Or in the case of Enron, a big difference between purposely causing blackouts that wouldn't have otherwise happened and trading on a polar vortex in PJM futures. There wasn't much about Enron that was making capitalism more efficient.
My unsolicited and only moderately informed opinion:
I think that long term shorting US treasuries in USD would be a spectacularly bad trade.
A few points against:
1) The interest rate is set by the FED based on a a variety or factors. It's not really a "free market" interest rate. If the FED wants to lock rates at 0.5% for twenty years they can. (They can't control what that might do to exchange rates or commodity prices, but the USD is fiat.)
2) The interest rate is effectively capped by US gov't obligations. Even if they decide to raise interest rates. There is a point where it forces gov't bankruptcy. They will not raise to this point.
3) What would be the clear forcing function to cause interest rates to rise? 0% unemployment? 10% inflation?
4) The existence of QE creates an alternative to raising rates. It would seem to me that betting on rising rates would also mean betting on unwinding of QE.
5) China's UST holdings also seem like a wild card.
It seems to me like a lot of risk for limited potential reward.
Why not find a heavily indebted company that is going to zero when cheap loans go away? At least that way you could make the theoretical 100% return? Wouldn't that short offer greater potential return at lower risk? Perhaps run a stock screener on interest coverage ratio?
I think that long term shorting US treasuries in USD would be a spectacularly bad trade.
A few points against:
1) The interest rate is set by the FED based on a a variety or factors. It's not really a "free market" interest rate. If the FED wants to lock rates at 0.5% for twenty years they can. (They can't control what that might do to exchange rates or commodity prices, but the USD is fiat.)
2) The interest rate is effectively capped by US gov't obligations. Even if they decide to raise interest rates. There is a point where it forces gov't bankruptcy. They will not raise to this point.
3) What would be the clear forcing function to cause interest rates to rise? 0% unemployment? 10% inflation?
4) The existence of QE creates an alternative to raising rates. It would seem to me that betting on rising rates would also mean betting on unwinding of QE.
5) China's UST holdings also seem like a wild card.
It seems to me like a lot of risk for limited potential reward.
Why not find a heavily indebted company that is going to zero when cheap loans go away? At least that way you could make the theoretical 100% return? Wouldn't that short offer greater potential return at lower risk? Perhaps run a stock screener on interest coverage ratio?
Trade of a lifetime- Shorting treasury bonds Apr 2021
--->
Trade of a lifetime- Longing treasury bonds Apr 2021
when you shorted it on Apr 2021,
it was the end of the bond downtrend.
Hope you didn't use your whole life savings to short it.
One very major problem with swing trading (vs day trading)
is that you don't know your performance until
weeks/months later.
for day traders, you will know your performance within a
few minutes/hours.
whether you are a day or swing trader, timing (when to enter) is
extremely important.
Trade of a lifetime- Shorting treasury bonds
--->
Trade of a lifetime- Longing treasury bonds Apr 2021
when you shorted it on Apr 2021,
it was the end of the bond downtrend.
Hope you didn't use your whole life savings to short it.
One very major problem with swing trading (vs day trading)
is that you don't know your performance until
weeks/months later.
for day traders, you will know your performance within a
few minutes/hours.
whether you are a day or swing trader, timing (when to enter) is
extremely important.
Trade of a lifetime- Shorting treasury bonds
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