It is never easy. But then again easy is a state of mind.
Trade of a lifetime- Shorting treasury bonds
- Thread starter Jad930
- Start date
All of this was true in 2008 as well. If you'd shorted the 10 and 30 year then you would have lost a bit of money (ask me how I know
).I'd caution that the gestalt around inflation is almost entirely driven by various political narratives and thus quite untethered from reality. No matter how we try to isolate ourselves from that, it undoubtedly impacts our thought process so it's very hard to make a fully rational trade on this product right now.
Short of you want.. I love crowded trades where people ignore price and say silly things like brrrrrr. Good bedtime story though.
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You forgot Silver/Gold.
Hey COG. Question - what do you think those charts say, in the brrrrrrrr sense like you mentioned (I think you mean inflation).
On your second one, if yields are going down, I understand that would mean people are backing away from the inflation idea.
But on the copper/gold one and the platinum/gold one, since gold is more thought of an inflation hedge, if I am understanding those charts correctly and gold is increasing in value versus the other two, wouldn't that point to, if anything, people more worried about inflation? Or maybe you are saying platinum/copper actually measure inflation better?
Thanks!
Brrr is a bedtime story. I’m a fan of it because someone has to hold the bag. And someone always does (such as the author of this thread). You own copper and steel. You’re feeling the transitory inflation pinch.
there are no hard and fast rules. Price can do whatever it wants. Oil went negative. Who had that on their bingo card? Whose bed time story predicted that? I’m just pulling evidence. Nothing is guaranteed and when the weight of the evidence suggests something, i can’t ignore it. I’m not guaranteeing inflation is done. But price certainly isn’t buying the inflation story anymore, increasingly. That might change back. I dont control price.
the next botched bedtime story you’re going to hear is: if rates roll over, that’s good for growth stocks.
we all need bag holders.
there are no hard and fast rules. Price can do whatever it wants. Oil went negative. Who had that on their bingo card? Whose bed time story predicted that? I’m just pulling evidence. Nothing is guaranteed and when the weight of the evidence suggests something, i can’t ignore it. I’m not guaranteeing inflation is done. But price certainly isn’t buying the inflation story anymore, increasingly. That might change back. I dont control price.
the next botched bedtime story you’re going to hear is: if rates roll over, that’s good for growth stocks.
we all need bag holders.
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"The market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."
Bag holders. The world needs them.
the next stage is- it’s so obvious I’m right. I just need 3% to get to break even. That’s when you know you’re in trouble.you become the bag holder for the remaining bag holders. It’s like being at a bar at 1:45am. The party’s over dude. You’re the only one left.
the next stage is- it’s so obvious I’m right. I just need 3% to get to break even. That’s when you know you’re in trouble.you become the bag holder for the remaining bag holders. It’s like being at a bar at 1:45am. The party’s over dude. You’re the only one left.
How's that trade workin' out for ya, buddy? "Little price risk" lol.
Go ahead and double down: if it was good to short the US 10Y at 1.75%, it's even better to short it at 1.30%.
Or maybe your broker stopped you out?
Remember the short Japanese bond trade. They called it the widow maker for a reason.
Go ahead and double down: if it was good to short the US 10Y at 1.75%, it's even better to short it at 1.30%.
Or maybe your broker stopped you out?
Remember the short Japanese bond trade. They called it the widow maker for a reason.