total implosion of the u.s. real estate market

Quote from Cutten:

Last time I checked, dozens of RE stocks have gone bankrupt, and almost all are down 50-95% from their highs. If that isn't a stock market apocalypse, what is?

See, this is a trader's site. We are more concerned with what is going to happen to the prices of stocks, since that's what we trade - we don't trade GDP, foreclosure rates, or canned food prices. As of now, short real estate stocks has been the biggest bonanza of a one-way bet since the dot.com collapse.

The gracious thing for you real estate bulls to do would be to admit you were flat out wrong. Admit that you were long and wrong into the biggest real estate bear market since the Great Depression 75 years ago. Then at least you could keep your dignity. Trying to pretend it's not a big deal just looks pathetic, at this late date.
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If you were short some of, or any of, these bankrupt RE companies, or some of those down 95%, good for you. You made an astute trade.

But when you and many of the others around this website starting talking about the demise of RE, the stocks went up another 50-100%. Talk about dignity? Why don't we talk about how you traded these stocks on the short side as they went up another 50-100%.

That said, what many of us were talking about was "real property", not stocks. And I will say that my properties are down some, but not much. I would have expected them to be down more. Rents on the other hand are up. So over the last few years my income is rising.....which is the reason I hold "real property".

That said, I leave the ins and outs of shorting builder stocks to you guys who can figure out how to short a rising stock and make money without a margin call. I suppose it helps to never have mentioned a specific name eh Cutten?

OldTrader
 
Quote from the gardner:

YES IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED BUT NOT TO THIS DEGREE.....I AM LOOKING AT REAL DATA ....IMPORTANT DATA SUGGESTING A TOTAL COLLAPSE IN VALUES ......A PROLONGED PROTRACTED DEPRESSIVE COLLAPSE OF THE USA,S LARGEST MARKET.....

WHAT THE NUMBERS SUGGEST IS THAT WHATEVER EQUITY HAS BEEN ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST 9 YEARS WILL EVAPORATE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 YEARS ...........

THE REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE WILL BE 10000 TIMES WORSE THAN THE DOT COM BOOM IN ITS DURATION AND OVERALL EFFECTS

DISCUSS
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I CANT HEAR YOU

DISCUSS

when the twits/public come out in force its always best to do the opposite of what they are doing

and BTW jumbo loans in los angeles are coming back strong.

Qualified buyers are getting 6.6% now (vs 7.5% a month ago).

give it 6-18 more months and it will probably business back to usual in the desirable areas, with 30 yr fixed back at low 6%jumbos (assuming the 10 yr doesnt move from where it is now)
 
My take?

People shouldn't buy shit they don't need, and cannot afford. My home is probably worth slightly less than what it was last year, but then again I'm not selling anytime soon, and I could buy my house with cash if I absolutely had to. (I paid cash for a lot of it when I was building) How many of those thousands upon thousands of new Realtors during the housing boom do you think are still working in Realty? Its a shame though, how many people jump on just in time to miss the bus and go down with the ship... Just out of curiosity, how many of you are already on the "Foreclosure Flip" bandwagon? Surely I'm not the only one on ET...
 
Quote from Adobian:

The fire in Southern California will kill the real estate market there.
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no it won't. there have been a number of large fires in southern ca over the past 20 years and r/e prices were not affected in any case.

the fire in 2003 was more destructive than this one and it didn't hurt prices at all. if anything the fire will boost construction employment in the aftermath.
 
Quote from OldTrader:

If you were short some of, or any of, these bankrupt RE companies, or some of those down 95%, good for you. You made an astute trade.

But when you and many of the others around this website starting talking about the demise of RE, the stocks went up another 50-100%. Talk about dignity? Why don't we talk about how you traded these stocks on the short side as they went up another 50-100%.

That said, what many of us were talking about was "real property", not stocks. And I will say that my properties are down some, but not much. I would have expected them to be down more. Rents on the other hand are up. So over the last few years my income is rising.....which is the reason I hold "real property".

That said, I leave the ins and outs of shorting builder stocks to you guys who can figure out how to short a rising stock and make money without a margin call. I suppose it helps to never have mentioned a specific name eh Cutten?

OldTrader
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sorry to butt in but i know a couple of guys that are pretty good at shorting rising stocks. i don't know the exact details of their methods but i would say that their 'secret' is starting really, really small, and averaging up conservatively and keeping lots and lots of cash at hand.
 
Quote from Bingoking:

I don't think water will be a problem for Vegas.
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It already IS a problem. Also, just because there is a body of water physically present nearby, that doesn't mean it is aviable legally or economically.
The water behind the Hoover dam is used for generating electricity, so you can't just use it up for your needs beyond a certain level.

Unless you want to make a choice between water or electricity....
 
Quote from OldTrader:

This has already been "discussed" ad infinitum. Just do a search and you can read those discussions. But isn't it clear? The world, as we know it, is ending.

OldTrader
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Not the end of the world, but the end of the luxurious life style that we here in the states gotten so attached to. Globalization is has done this, but it could also be our savior. Our gov't needs to encourage FDI, and promote healthy relations with the rest of the world. Those who disagree with what I am saying are the ones who will have the luxury of life no matter what happens. But if we encourage outsiders to invest here, we would attract money from all the over the world, create jobs, and preserve the life style that we love so much....
 
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