total implosion of the u.s. real estate market
- Thread starter the gardner
- Start date
Ah, now if you read all of my posts, you'd have found a concesssion in there somewhere. I even thought that we were at a bottom, which kind of implies an admission that the prices had softened. I just get so tired of the doomsayers who refuse to realize that these things aren't static...That the market adjusts...That administrations and banks react. So I speak out. I'll admit I was wrong, but I think that the whole thing is overblown.
SM
I was wondering how that would play out. Lots of homes have been destroyed. Those people need unoccupied houses to live in. I Hate to put too much thought into the economic ramifications of peoples misfortunes because it just seems wrong to do so.
SM
Thats what I'm saying. Prices ran so high from 2003 to 2005 that even though they backslid some, it still doesn't matter. I have townhouses purchased in 2003 to 2004 that are still up over 50%, even though they've recently dropped back a little. And with the dollar getting creamed, you still can't build one at that cost because labor and materials are up.
SM
Um not true actually
A lot of areas have seen strong price appreciation in the past few year. The areas gettign hit hard are in the mid west and non-coastal low end properties. Upper class real estate doing just fine.
I echo this. However, I don't think NYC real estate will see much of a decline, from a residential level.
From a rental perspective, NYC has one of the tightest vacancy rates in the country at sub 1%, with future population forecasts that are staggering. Anyone who is a renter in NYC knows what effect this has had in the past, and what effect it will continue to have in the future. if cap rates widen, rent growth will outpace any negative widening effect.
From an ownership perspective, I am doubtful you'll see a decline there too. NYC is continuing to become a wealthier city, thus higher condo prices at the hands of higher demand. Brooklyn used to be a place for starving artists. It's now a place for well fed bankers looking for a little bang for their buck. You'll see slower growth, but with a healthy economy in NYC, and continuing growth, I don't see any meaningful decline.
The commercial space is where I would be most concerned. Office space and retail space in particular. Wider cap rates, landlord incentives, and lower rents will push values here.
Las Vegas out west is getting pounded, Southern Florida is at a near stand still. As far as the midwest goes, only the Rust Belt is getting hit. Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, etc, etc. Chicago and St Louis experienced similar growth during the housing boom as the rest of the country, but still aren't giving much back. Kansas City, Lincoln, Minneapolis, Madison, Tulsa, and the like never really saw much price inflation from the re-sale housing markets during the boom, but all saw significant growth in new homes during that time. Since the peak, none of them have given much back either, at least not as much as many other areas of the country...
Low-end poverty class homes never experienced much, if any, growth during the boom, and as such haven't suffered nearly as much as the upper-middle class real estate. Outside of the obvious reasons that they do not sell as well as median-priced homes...
Guys,
Bottom line is that prices are so out of line with reality, that there HAS to be either:
A severe drop in prices,
or an increase in income. This is for the really inflated markets of course. I'm in Cal so it applies here.
There has been a very stable income to mortgage ratio for about 40 years. It's now running double that in inflated markets. Revert to the mean. It will happen, period.
So what is worse, a quick and ugly drop in prices, or a flat line for a decade? Think it can't happen? The last Cal RE crap out took 7 years to work out in the early 90's, and that bubble wasn't even close to this one. And then if we go into recession....
Its barely begun folks.
Bottom line is that prices are so out of line with reality, that there HAS to be either:
A severe drop in prices,
or an increase in income. This is for the really inflated markets of course. I'm in Cal so it applies here.
There has been a very stable income to mortgage ratio for about 40 years. It's now running double that in inflated markets. Revert to the mean. It will happen, period.
So what is worse, a quick and ugly drop in prices, or a flat line for a decade? Think it can't happen? The last Cal RE crap out took 7 years to work out in the early 90's, and that bubble wasn't even close to this one. And then if we go into recession....
Its barely begun folks.