Topsteptrader

[austinp]

contrary to appearances here, I have no dog in the hunt. Unless TST offers the Russell emini as an eligible contract, I'm not interested in anything else. The way all markets are ripping v-turns every which way these days, I'm able to manage trades for one symbol at a time so why not choose the most dynamic of them all?

Russell futures intraday ranges blow away all other symbols including crude oil, which does not hold a candle by comparison. So I'm neither grinding an axe nor lobbying for changes out of personal interest.

I started a conversation here in response to the OP and his question, now here we are... a bazillion replies hammering the same point later

 

[Maverick74]

Because they prey on fear

If I am up 8 k in the largest combine and I drawdown $1001 that does not mean I am a bad trader.

If you look at the drawdown allowed per contracts through out the different combines, you will notice they choke you on risk if you want to do the larger combine,


lowest allows you 3 contracts and $1500 so $500 per contract

Highest allows 15 contracts or $4500 so only $300 per contract risk

If you are trading 5 times the size of the lowest combine then why is the risk not $7500 on the largest ?

Why are these parameters so out of whack ?

The same exact thing with the profit targets


It's $500 per contract profit avg on the lowest and jumps to $700-$850 per contract needed to pass on the rest.


And why in the hell would a person choose only 10 days over 20 with the same objectives ?

It's ignorant choices available like this that make no sense at all

Typical ET. How can I max out my leverage. You are suppose to have the intelligence to only use the extra contracts when you actually have p&l to work with. Who in their right mind would trade 15 contracts of ANY future contract with a 150k combine. I mean come on man. This is amateur hour here. No wonder all these guys are blowing out. I would trade 3 contracts max on a 150k account so a 4500 drawdawn gives me 1500 per contract or 30 effing handles in the ES!!!!!

I highly recommend you google the marshmellow test as well because you just failed it big time.

 

[Maverick74]

vol: a 20-day combine is nearly 2x the 10-day profit objective. So that's a push

mav: I'm a lifeling football fan... so let's use this analogy here...

What if the NFL combines that measure college prospects for the NFL draft had one rigid stipulation: in order to be considered eligible for the draft, you must be able to run a sub 4.4 forty yard dash. All the other agility drills, bench-pressing, throwing, catching don't matter if you cannot complete a 4.3s - 40.

Once you accomplish that, then and only then are you eligible to be drafted for the NFL. You can have umpteen rollover attempts to make that speed in a race, but you cannot advance to the NFL unless you make the minimum speed requirement.

Once you pass that and reach the draft, no further 40-yard dash times matter when trying to qualify for an NFL roster. That speed stipulation is for the combine only, not the big leagues where life gets serious.

**

Are ya with me now? That's the same exact thing as TST's combine parameters today. Now let's make a short list of NFL players who could not even run a 4.4 forty let alone 4.3s

Joe Montana
Jerry Rice
Emmitt Smith
Reggie White
John Elway
Dan Marino
Lawrence Taylor
Steve Young
Warren Moon
Ray Lewis

Now there are some pretty decent NFL players on that list who helped their teams for a long time in the big leagues. But none of them, not one could pass the NFL combine with a red herring stipulation of time & speed test that does not matter once they reach the real games.

Capiche`?

Terrible analogy Austin and I love football. Look, I'm not going to beat this into the ground anymore. I was only using you as an example as you did the most number of combines here. I give you props for that.

 

[JamesL]

vol: a 20-day combine is nearly 2x the 10-day profit objective...

The profit target is the same on whether you choose the 10 or 20 day combine, not 2x the goal.

 

[Peternam]

So the traders at my firm broke down into 3 categories and this mix is really interesting because it encapsulates the breakdown I think of the entire industry. The first group we had were option market makers (screen based). These guys had an edge. Most (not all) made money. I don't have an exact number and I did not run or manage this group but was good friends with the guy who did. I did know that they drove the p&l of the firm. They had an edge and they consistently made money day in and day out. I should point out that in fairness, they were not killing it. They were getting eaten alive in overhead cost. They had to pay over 12k a month for a seat and we took 20% of their p&l. Their software cost were also around 1k a month. So they made money, but you won't be reading about them anytime soon.

The second group were the ones managing small funds. They made money from the fees and from a cut in the p&l but I should point out, these guys did not have to take big risks and use leverage. The could leverage their money under management vs risk. So in other words they could execute low risk strategies making 10% a year and pull in 7 figures from that vs Johnny daytrader with a small account going all in every day with 50% swings in his account.

The 3rd group were the independent traders. They deposited money and they could trade stocks, options or futures. They could trade overnight, intra-day, whatever they wanted. Most of these guys had no edge and almost none of them made money. Oh they tried. They threw everything including the kitchen sink at the market. In the end as their account values dropped their leverage increased. They would take on more and more risk to try to make back their losses. They would often confuse market environment with edge. In other words like I mentioned earlier, selling options in a rising market or just being long stocks in a rising market and thinking, "look, I found something that works".

So to sum up. The MMs who had an edge for the most part made money. The guys running funds made money but only because they did not have to over leverage and could earn the fees, the independent guys with no edge for the most part lost money. And this is pretty much the breakdown we have overall. We have the flow traders in the industry, the money managers and the guys on their own with nothing. I guess nodoji is in her own little group.

interesting

 

[Pekelo]

if TST eliminated the minimum profit mandate in limited window from their test, one helluva lot more traders would stick to their plan.

Not completely eliminate, but it should be more of a guidance, or loose target, then a hard line of make or break. If a trader makes 95% of the minimum profit, that is pretty damn good in my book. If another trader misses it by 1 dollar, he doesn't qualify. Really?

So the closer one gets to the minimum profit, the less the other numbers are important (except for DD). But if you only made 80% of the minimum profit I will take a much harder look at the other numbers....

 

[nazzdack]

----why in the hell would a person choose only 10 days over 20 with the same objectives ?
----choices available like this....
----make sense....

1) One "advantage" of the 10-day compared to a 20-day is getting the combine over and done with sooner. "Bad things" can occur from day-11 to day-20.
2) The average profit per day required to pass the 20-day is half of what is required to fulfill the 10-day but it's irrelevant if you never come close to satisfying the guidelines.
3) It's almost like doing a "trapeze walk". To do longer distances can really be tiring and more likely lead to death. :eek:

 

[volente_00]

Typical ET. How can I max out my leverage. You are suppose to have the intelligence to only use the extra contracts when you actually have p&l to work with. Who in their right mind would trade 15 contracts of ANY future contract with a 150k combine. I mean come on man. This is amateur hour here. No wonder all these guys are blowing out. I would trade 3 contracts max on a 150k account so a 4500 drawdawn gives me 1500 per contract or 30 effing handles in the ES!!!!!

I highly recommend you google the marshmellow test as well because you just failed it big time.

So for the lowest combine you would only trade 1 lot ?



10k per contract is perfectly fine for index futures intraday. That is only 9 : 1 leverage in es.

3 contracts for 150k is a joke. You would have to make 80 es points just to pass the combine. You may as well just hand your combine money over to them and don't waste time attempting to pass it.

 

[volente_00]

1) One "advantage" of the 10-day compared to a 20-day is getting the combine over and done with sooner. "Bad things" can occur from day-11 to day-20.
2) The average profit per day required to pass the 20-day is half of what is required to fulfill the 10-day but it's irrelevant if you never come close to satisfying the guidelines.
3) It's almost like doing a "trapeze walk". To do longer distances can really be tiring and more likely lead to death. :eek:

Or a way to get you to fail twice as quick so you can contribute another $175-$400 that much quicker.


This also does not make much sense for the backer. Hell 10 days of trading does not even weed out luck as a reason for the trader to pass.

 

[Pekelo]

1) One "advantage" of the 10-day compared to a 20-day is getting the combine over and done with sooner. "Bad things" can occur from day-11 to day-20.

That is really bad logic. You are either really close to the target thus you only need 1-2 more days and you can just half ass the rest, or you are on your way but you still have to trade it every day to make it. There is the 3rd case when you are not even close, but then your next 10 days doesn't really matter.

The point is, unless someone is cocksure and a very good trader, most everybody should choose the 20 days Combine.